2015 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 17

2015 is winding down now as I complete the 175th post of the calendar year. It's been my busiest with Confessions of a Sportscaster, mostly due to the NBA Tournament of Champions I ran this past summer. It's also the finale of this season's Pigskin Pick 'Em and the conclusion of my playing out the string.

Adam took four of the seven disputed games last week to push his lead over me to ten games. Barring a ridiculous amount of disparity or me cheating by waiting until he sends me his picks leading to my picking the opposite of him and hoping for a miracle, he has me beat this season, and I tip my cap to the man who kicked butt this season, especially on his hero picks. I can, however, conceivably catch both my dad and Geoffy depending on how things play out this week.

I hope you've enjoyed the 2015 edition of Adam and I (and a special thanks to Geoffy for filling in for a week while Adam was on vacation) picking games against the spread, cracking jokes, and showing that to a degree we know absolutely nothing about football. In this final edition of the season, Adam and I disagree on seven games on Sunday's slate.

From all of us here at Confessions of a Sportscaster, I hope you have a blessed and happy 2016! Let's get to the picks.

2015 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Quarterfinals

Sixteen teams entered. Only eight remain.

It's the second weekend of my borrowed edition of a playoff in college football. Since reading Wetzel, Peter and Passan's work a few years back, I have been a proponent of their "Death to the BCS" playoff system, and will give them credit for the innovation. I've just taken that system and tried to simulate through a postseason done in that fashion.

This past weekend showed the value of such a system. For the most part, chalk reigned. However, we had a pair of incredibly notable games in the massive upset by Bowling Green over third-seeded Michigan State and the instant classic that was Stanford-TCU. It sets up four games scheduled for yesterday that will determine the last four teams that will play in 2016.

The schedule has been adjusted such that no playoff game will compete against another, though we're going to have one super late game in the Midwest. The rules are the same as last round: the higher seeded team in each game will have hosting privileges, and I will take actual weather at those locales into account when setting this up. In an attempt to make this game as accurate as possible, I use injury reports from Don Best's handicapping website to keep injured players out, something that did come into play with a few teams last week. These games will be simulated as a best-of-three to minimize luck, with the "clinching" game being the official result. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play some football.

2015 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 16

I think I am 2014 Jay Cutler.

After pretty much surrendering for the season due to trailing Adam by several games and being pretty much out of the race in our little group, last week was my garbage time touchdown. Somehow, some way... I swept my seven disputed games with Adam and pulled back to within nine games of the lead, and am back with the rest of the pack. I'm not going to suddenly reverse course and proclaim that this is a sign of victory, because the odds just aren't in my favor. I'd have to pull a similar thing this week to get back within respectable striking distance for Week 17 and then pray for a miracle. When Adam sent me his picks for the week, he said, "Lets see if I can hang on and not have an epic - Tony Romo like - 4th quarter F-up." Bear in mind, I almost did this last year before hanging on by a thread in Week 17.

This season we get a game on Christmas Eve, then one on the day after to go up against the Death to the BCS Playoffs before we get into the Sunday action. This week, Adam and I disagree on seven games again. This does mean I can get back within striking distance.

Adam did update the spreadsheet with pick statistics, and you can view those updated statistics here.

From all of us here at Confessions of a Sportscaster, I hope you have a very Merry Christmas! Let's take a look at our Week 16 picks.

Game Notes: (MBK) Benedictine University @ North Central College(12/22/15)

Final Score

Benedictine 75, NCC 73

Game Summary
It was a great start to the Battle of Chicago/Maple Avenue as the Cardinals (6-4) got the ball inside early and took firm control of the game, scoring 16 of the contest's first 20 points. The Eagles (10-0) slowly worked their way back into the game, but couldn't stop the Cardinal offense, as North Central took a 36-26 lead into halftime. The Eagles came out strong to start the second half though, opening on a 7-0 run to cut the lead to three. The Cardinals would push it back up as high as seven, but it would not last, with a corner three giving Benedictine a short-lived lead. The Cardinals got it back but couldn't hold it. The Eagles led by five with about two minutes left, but the Cardinals tied it with 32 seconds left. However, the Eagles got the game winning basket with two seconds left, and the Cardinals were unable to answer.

Key Stats

• Tahron Harvey (BEN): 10-16 FG (0-1 3PT), 7-9 FT; 27 pts, 7 reb (3 off), 6 ast, 1 stl. Harvey scored 18 of his 27 points in the second half, but saved his best for last. He got the ball with about ten seconds to go in the game, drove down the right side of the floor and got a great look at the game-winning layup. He was phenomenal throughout the night, converting a ton of layups and hitting some mid range jumpers.
• Lucas Johnson (BEN): 2-6 FG (2-3 3PT), 2-3 FT; 8 pts, 6 reb, 2 ast, 1 stl, 3 blk. It was actually really good to see Luke in action last night; I coached him when I was a senior in high school and he was in eighth grade at Aurora Christian. Johnson wasn't much of a factor on the offensive side, though his pair of threes came at crucial moments late in the game. He was a force on the defensive end, using his length to create some contested shots by the Cardinals (plus those three blocks) and was solid on the glass. An all around good performance.
• Alex Sorenson (NCC): 9-23 FG (0-2 3PT), 2-3 FT; 20 pts, 8 reb (3 off), 1 blk. Sorenson dominated the paint in the early going, helping build that 16-6 North Central lead while playing excellent defense at the other end. The Eagles must have made their adjustments at halftime, because he didn't get going as well in the second half. He avoided foul trouble, which was great, but he was strangely out of the game late in the half before returning with a couple minutes left. I'm not sure if he was tired or what, but I found it weird that they went away from him towards the end other than his game-tying layup with 31 ticks left.

Final Thoughts

First note: the officiating throughout the game wasn't great, but it was abysmal at the end. Benedictine called timeout with 23.1 seconds left to draw up their final play, then NCC called timeout right after. They had one left, and Coach Raridon told the refs that he wanted to use his last one after a made basket. Kevin Homn, who was on the floor at the time, also screamed for a timeout after the make. Both requests were ignored. This is a terrible failure by the officials, even though in all likelihood, with two seconds left, you aren't getting off a great shot. In principle though, this was bad.

That said, even though it cost the Cardinals a chance to tie or possibly win, I can't blame that solely for the loss. The Cardinals had a ten point cushion at halftime after leading by as many as 13 in the first half. You figured a Benedictine run was coming, and it came immediately. The Cardinals were a little late to respond and had decent leads as the half went on, but failed to execute to keep that lead.

At the end of the day though, I have to tip my cap to the Eagles. They're undefeated and ranked seventh in the country, and unlike their women's team, their record isn't inflated. They are a very, very good team and at this point you can all but pencil them in for the NCAA Tournament. It was a frustrating end to the evening, but they earned the win.

The Cardinals are off now through Christmas and close out the non-conference schedule next week at Robert Morris before diving head first into CCIW play in the new year.

2015 Death to the BCS Playoffs: First Round

Yesterday marked the official beginning of bowl season. With that in mind, now comes the fun part for me of the year in running through the what ifs of a 16 team playoff.

The College Football Playoff doesn't begin until New Year's Eve, but their top four teams match the Death to the BCS Playoffs' top four seeds. This playoff just adds the six remaining conference champions along with six other at large teams. Here's the fun part: the higher seeds in this round and the two to follow get home field advantage. It makes things more exciting, as the campuses get to come alive with fans and alums for games that matter more.

So here's how I work running through the results of these games, if you're new to this concept. You can view last year's first round post as an example. The higher seeds (1-8 this week) get to host the matchups, with weather at the time of kickoff being taken into account. In an attempt to make this game as accurate as possible, I use injury reports from Don Best's handicapping website to keep injured players out. I will simulate these games using WhatIfSports.com and to minimize luck, I will simulate these games as a best of three, with the clinching game going down as the official result.

Without further ado, here are yesterday's results from the first round.

Game Notes: (WBK) Benedictine University @ North Central College(12/17/15)

Final Score
NCC 104, Benedictine 88

Game Summary
The Cardinals (4-4) got off to a slow start offensively, but were locked in defensively as the Eagles (8-2) struggled to hang onto the ball. A 14-0 Cardinal run built a 10 point lead, and it hovered around that for most of the frame with North Central taking a 23-12 lead after one quarter. The Cardinals got into foul trouble in the second quarter, mucking up the pace of the game and allowing the Eagles to get back into it. They closed the gap to three a couple times, but the Cardinals hit well-times threes, including one right before the buzzer to go into the locker room up 44-38. The Cardinals would build their lead to 59-49 at one point, but an 11-0 Eagle run gave Benedictine the lead. North Central answered back to retake the lead, and held onto a 72-66 lead after three. The Eagles surged to start the fourth, hitting a three to make it 76-73 Cardinals, but North Central went on an 11-2 run to put the game away.

Key Stats

• Mayson Whipple (NCC): 7-15 FG (1-5 3PT); 15 pts, 2 reb (1 off), 3 ast, 2 stl. It was hard to narrow this list of key stats down with seven Cardinals scoring in double figures, but Mayson was one of the leading scorers on the team with 15 points. She struggled from deep, but was able to get to the basket plenty of times. On a night like this where the threes weren't really falling, they needed offense from other sources, and Mayson helped provide it. She was also second on the team in assists last night, which is a good sign.
• Corrine Rowe (NCC): 6-12 FG (1-4 3PT), 2-4 FT; 15 pts, 2 ast, 3 stl. In just her second game this season due to injury, she looked pretty good. Her handles are better than they were last year and she seems to be a little more disciplined with a year of experience. She was also able to get to the basket for some key buckets to help create offense, and was good in the press at stealing the ball.
• Paula Zerante (NCC): 5-9 FG (1-2 3PT), 4-4 FT; 15 pts, 4 reb, 2 stl. A lot of balance among these three guards, but Paula may have had the best night. She had a pair of and-ones at some key moments in the game to help keep the tide in the Cardinals' favor and had one of the best shooting nights out of everyone.

North Central System Watch

• Benedictine Turnovers: 41. This is a ton, even by North Central standards. The Eagles couldn't handle the pressure early, coughing it up 14 times in the first ten minutes. They calmed down a ton in the second quarter, only committing seven, but still had 20 more turnovers in the second half. Of those, 23 came on Cardinal steals, paced by four from Kim Wilson. Corrine Rowe and Jamie Cuny each had three thefts.
• NCC 3PT: 12-53 (22.6%). I think the Cardinals may have had as many air balls as they did made threes last night. It was pretty rough to watch. That said, when they needed a key three to fall, they made it happen. This brings them down to 26.7 percent for the season, but with the sheer volume of shots, it almost doesn't matter. I'm sure they'll get their legs back under them again.
• NCC Charges Drawn: 3. Guess who? Anita Sterling drew one in the first quarter, then another in the second quarter, both of which were kind of close but legit despite the protestations of Benedictine's coach. Her third charge was a no-doubter, and one that I have no idea why Benedictine's coach protested it.

Final Thoughts
I did some scouting Thursday morning to see what the Cardinals were up against, and it kind of surprised me that Benedictine was 8-1 coming into the game. They've taken advantage of, honestly, a soft schedule with their first loss coming at home to Elmhurst before rattling off that eight game winning streak against the bottom of the NACC and some non-conference tilts against teams that are not off to good starts. This is clearly a pretty good team, don't get me wrong, but their record was clearly artificially inflated. Also, shooting 11 of 29 at the free throw line didn't help their cause.

It doesn't really show up in the stats, but there's one other player who impressed me last night: Kelly Wallner. The sophomore was playing in her first game of the season, and she did all right. She went 0-3 from the field, all threes, but she had four rebounds, a steal, and played phenomenal defense down low, altering probably at least half a dozen shots last night. They need that defense just as much as they need the offense, and it helps to have some reliable help in the back.

The Cardinals go on their longest road trip of the season now, with a trip to Dubuque on Saturday, followed by a tournament at Otterbein in Ohio after Christmas to prep for CCIW play. The Cardinals will open their adventure into the Gauntlet at home against North Park on January 2nd.

2015 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 15

Apparently, Adam doesn't understand the concept of a white flag.

I kid, of course, but he took three of our four disputed picks last week to further establish his dominance over me this season and take firm control of the group as a whole. He is up by 11 games over Geoffy and 13 over my dad, at least according to our ESPN standings.

Adam did go above and beyond early this week and sent me a spreadsheet with data from our picks so far this season. It's not perfect; he's off by a couple games on a couple of folks, but the principle of the data remains the same. I've put that spreadsheet on my Google Drive, and have it available here for your perusal. The big stat that jumps out to me: Adam has won 60 percent of his "hero" picks, which is second in the group behind Geoffy, but Adam has gone with the most hero picks out of all of us, hence his dominance.

Meanwhile in Week 15, Adam and I disagree on seven games. Let's get to it!