2024 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 14

The coalition returns as we begin the stretch run of the 2024 NFL season, but we do so with a look at the history of the contest.

I dug back through a decade's worth of records, and we've had some bad weeks over the years. I overlooked what my worst week was, but I'm pretty sure I had a three win week somewhere along the line. Adam has put up 2-11 weeks a couple times, but it's been years since those. Geoffrey once put up a 2-12 week, with the asterisk of some of those losses being counted because he forgot to get his picks in. Both Geoffrey and, back when he was participating, my dad each had a 3-13 week. The... "gold" standard for bad weeks was Joe during the Covid year somehow only getting one game right. But in a decade-plus of picking games, we have a new low for a full 16 game slate.

I took three of five disputed games from Joe, which is fine because he and I both swept Adam in our disputed games last week. The rest of the group had a mediocre to good week, while Adam, in his words, "would like a redo." As a result, what had been probably a four guy race at the top is likely down to three with five weeks to go. Geoffrey is now in sole possession of first place, I gained a game on him, and sit tied with Jim for second and just a game out of the lead.

You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. Adam's dominance in superminority games vanished this week, though he remains tied for the best average in those games. Geoffrey retains the best record in 4-3 split games, which is largely why he's in front right now. Jim has the second best mark in those games, while I've notched the best mark in hero games regardless of who's gone it alone (though my 4-0 mark doing so remains the best in the group thus far).

And so as we get back to it, Adam disagrees with Joe and I on five games apiece; Joe and I dispute four of out 13. Let's get to it!

Game Notes: (WBK) Concordia University- Wisconsin @ North Central College (11/30/24)

Final Score
NCC 85, CUW 66

Game Summary
This one didn't start the greatest, as while the Cardinals (4-2) were able to get some early points, the Falcons (0-4) were able to answer quickly back, and built a 25-18 lead after one quarter. They pushed that lead to double digits at 34-24 midway through the second quarter, then the Cardinals made their run, outscoring the Falcons 10-1 to get back into the game, and briefly taking a lead before going into the break tied at 38. A three for NCC opened the second half scoring, and the Cardinals never trailed again as they fairly quickly pushed the lead to double digits.

Key Players

• Jocelyn Trotter (NCC): 7-13 FG (1-1 3PT), 1-1 FT; 16 pts, 14 reb (5 off), 4 ast, 1 blk, 2 stl. Make it two straight double-doubles and three for the year as the sophomore is almost averaging one through six games this season (she's one rebound shy). While Trotter led the team in scoring, it wasn't in a dominant, take-over-the-game way. She hit the go-ahead three early in the second half that gave the Cardinals the lead for good, and got many of her other baskets either off putbacks or takeaways. And the rebounding was great to see.
• Josylin Simmons-Doxie (NCC): 6-10 FG (1-1 3PT); 13 pts, 5 reb, 8 ast, 3 stl. JSD was a complementary piece off the bench for most of last year, but the senior has stepped into a starting role this year and is excelling so far. This was a good floor game where she attacked the basket, took advantage of an open look from deep, found open teammates, and wreaked havoc on the defensive end. She's a key part of NCC's pressure defense off made baskets, and it shows.
• Gracie McNabb (CUW): 7-11 FG (5-8 3PT); 19 pts, 3 reb, 2 ast. Probably the Falcons' best player, McNabb had a couple key buckets in the first half. She hit a three right before the first quarter buzzer that pushed the Falcon lead to seven, and she followed that up to tie the game at 38 right before halftime. I overheard Cardinal coach Maggie McCloskey-Bax mention to her team not to let her get hot, and while McNabb did get hot, it just wasn't enough this day.

Key Stats

• NCC: 20-23 FT (87.0%). In years past, free throw shooting has been a thing that's doomed the Cardinals, but in the two games I've seen in person so far this year that hasn't been the case. The Falcons played an aggressive defense on Saturday and were whistled for 24 fouls as a result of it. The Cardinals made them pay, and that's part of why the game went the way it did.
• CUW: 21 turnovers. This was the other piece. A whopping 16 Cardinal steals factored into this total as the aforementioned pressure defense wreaked havoc, especially in the second half. These 21 turnovers led to 24 Cardinal points. For comparison, 14 Cardinal turnovers led to 18 Falcon points.

CCIW Scoreboard Watch

• Elmhurst 69 (6-0), @ Manchester 67
• Webster 80, @ Augustana 68 (2-4)
• @ Ripon 71, Carroll 62 (4-3)
• @ Carthage 70 (5-1), MSOE 52
• IWU 65 (5-0), DePauw 59

Final Thoughts

I was a little leery in the first half, given that this Concordia team was winless to start the year, with big losses to Whitewater and Wheaton on their resume, so to be tied at halftime wasn't great. But the Cardinals woke up in the second half and put the game away fairly convincingly. They're off to a 4-2 start with the Aurora game starting to fade from my memory a little bit. I don't know exactly what the ceiling of this Cardinal team is yet, but I know at minimum this group will be competitive in the CCIW. They won't get to open conference play right away though, as the Cardinals get the bye on Wednesday, and will spend it hosting Chicago for a non-conference tilt in a game I won't be able to make. But hopefully a strong showing there will give this team more confidence going into their opener on Saturday.

Game Notes: (MBK) Benedictine University @ North Central College (11/26/24)

Final Score
NCC 86, Benedictine 78 (OT)

Game Summary
In another tight contest that the annual Battle for Chicago-Maple Avenue continues to provide, the Cardinals (4-1) jumped out to the early lead. While the Eagles (1-5) were able to keep it close for a while, they couldn't get over the hump, partially thanks to a technical foul, but managed to stay within four at 40-36 going into halftime. The Eagles scored the first four points of the second half to tie the game, but a 10-0 Cardinal run sparked the home crowd. North Central would push the lead as high as 15 with about 13 minutes to play, but the Eagles slowly chipped away, and eventually took their first lead of the game at 71-69 with just over a minute to go. But a Terrance Moncrief layup tied it at 71 with 49 seconds to go. Benedictine missed a go-ahead three, and with a chance to win, NCC briefly coughed up the ball before heaving an ill-advised prayer to result in an extra session. The Cardinals proceeded to score 10 of the first 11 in the extra session and iced the game at the line to bring the Bill Warden-Tony La Scala Trophy home.

Key Players

• Terrance Moncrief (NCC): 8-15 FG (0-2 3PT), 2-2 FT; 18 pts, 6 reb (2 off), 4 ast, 1 stl. The senior has been a big part of NCC's 4-1 start to the campaign. After hitting a layup at the buzzer to beat Whitman in Washington a couple weeks ago, Moncrief has continued to play well, and his relentlessness in attacking the basket has helped open up opportunities for his teammates.
• Drew Gaston (NCC): 2-6 FG (0-1 3PT), 9-10 FT; 13 pts, 8 reb, 1 blk. Gaston played 20 minutes off the bench last night, but was a key part in lifting the Cardinals to the win. His eight rebounds were second-most on the team behind only Ethan Helwig's nine, but it was his work late at the charity stripe that iced the contest. Gaston through five games is 30-31 from the line.
• Noah Mason (BEN): 8-11 FG (2-3 3PT), 4-9 FT; 22 pts, 6 reb (3 off), 2 ast. Just a freshman, Mason looked really good in this contest. He arguably should have been assessed the technical foul for a dead ball shove (the tech was assessed to Ryan Tucker, who may have also done some shoving), but otherwise played very well both inside and out, though he would eventually foul out of the contest. The one number that should jump out at you though? Don't worry, we're getting there.

Key Stats

• NCC: Outrebounded BEN 49-34. I debated about the rough showing from three in this game (7-26, including missing their final 12 in the second half), but for a team that was getting outrebounded by about five per game through the first four contests to win that battle by 15 was a good sign. This bore out in second chance points too, with the Cardinals outscoring the Eagles 18-5 in that category.
• BEN: 20-32 FT (62.5%). This was the big one. Down 15, Benedictine did what you should be doing in that situation: attack the basket, draw fouls, and try to score with the clock stopped. It got a bunch of North Central players into foul trouble, with two Cardinals fouling out. There's just one problem: during their second half comeback, the Eagles repeatedly split their pairs of free throws and managed to hit just 12 of 21 in the second half. In a game where you went to overtime missing that many... you do the math.

CCIW Scoreboard Watch

• @ UW-Platteville 77, Augustana 50 (3-1)
• MSOE 88, @ Carroll 80 (2-4)
• @ Carthage 76, Ripon 66 (3-2)
• @ Elmhurst 82 (3-2), St. Mary's (MN) 68
• @ Millikin 49 (2-3), Aurora 45
• @ North Park 72 (2-3), Anderson 64
• Hope 73, @ Wheaton 46 (3-4)

Final Thoughts

Photo by Chris Kohley

The Battle of Chicago-Maple Avenue always seems to produce some weird results, and this is arguably one of them. Just a few days after this North Central team went up to Platteville to take on the Pioneers, the #2 team in the country, lead by double digits, before ultimately falling in overtime up there, the Cardinals needed an extra session again against a team that had one win in the bank so far this season. Unlike this past Saturday though, the Cardinals were able to pull it out.

I'm not sure how good this Cardinal team truly is. A couple of their wins should probably have been by more, but it's early enough in the season that I'm not too worried about things yet. This team has beaten who they should have so far, and has a few more tuneups prior to their CCIW opener in a week.

Game Notes: (WBK) Benedictine University @ North Central College (11/26/24)

Final Score
NCC 76, Benedictine 63

Game Summary
Finally getting to play in front of a home crowd for the first time this season, the Cardinals (3-2) pulled out to a comfortable eight point lead late in the first quarter and kept that margin at the end of the frame. The lead would grow to double digits in the second quarter before the Eagles (2-2) made a run and cut it to three right before the break, but a quick answer on a layup pushed it to a 33-28 Cardinal lead at the intermission. North Central opened the second half on a 13-4 run to pull away, and the Eagles would not threaten the rest of the way.

Key Players

• Biz Daly (NCC): 10-14 FG, 6-6 FT; 26 pts, 4 reb (2 off), 3 ast, 1 blk, 3 stl. A year ago, Biz Daly was a rotation piece for a Cardinal team that finished fourth in the CCIW; she averaged about 3 points in 10 minutes per game. Through the first five games of her sophomore campaign, she's averaging 19 a contest and has already surpassed her freshman year scoring total. The leap from Year 1 to Year 2 has been amazing, and she's even turned into a midrange threat a la Megan McClure. The future is bright.
• Jocelyn Trotter (NCC): 10-16 FG (1-1 3PT), 1-1 FT; 22 pts, 11 reb (5 off), 4 ast, 1 blk, 1 stl. The reigning CCIW First Year Student Athlete of the Year, one season after notching seven double-doubles just put up her second of the young campaign. Her game continues to improve, as she showed a lot of confidence both on layups and pull up jumpers. Her rebounding was exceptional, and with her as a cornerstone on this team, once they find their footing they'll be a tough out.
• Makenzie Carroll (BEN): 6-11 FG (0-1 3PT), 1-2 FT; 13 pts, 5 reb (3 off), 2 ast, 2 stl. Carroll was one of the better Eagles on the floor, tying for second on the team in rebounds and leading their offensive attack. Her two steals were also a team high.

Key Stats

• NCC: Outrebounded BEN 42-33. One game after getting crushed on the boards by Aurora, while there were some stretches that were a little bit of an issue, the Cardinals cleaned it up. Benedictine did have 15 offensive rebounds to NCC's 13, but the Cardinals outscored the Eagles 21-12 in second chance opportunities.
• BEN: 8:13 A:TO ratio. Generally you want to see better. Eight assists on 25 field goals isn't particularly good, especially combined with the 13 turnovers. They didn't have a lot of procedural turnovers; 8 of the 13 were off NCC steals. The Cardinals, by contrast, had a 23:11 ratio.

CCIW Scoreboard Watch

• @ Augustana 89 (2-3), Monmouth 68
• @ Chicago 81, Carroll 70 (4-2)
• Carthage 79 (4-1), @ Lake Forest 54
• Illinois Wesleyan 84 (4-0), @ UW- Whitewater 78
• @ Knox 84, Millikin 74 (1-4)
• Wheaton 58 (4-3), @ Concordia (WI) 36

Final Thoughts

It's good to get back to writing these again. Workload for a while didn't allow for enough time to dedicate to these, but I'm finally back in a good enough place where I can.

It was good to see this Cardinal team play for the first time this season, though it's hard to gauge exactly how this year will go. After winning their first two contests by significant margins, a tough loss at Colorado College followed by getting beat up by Aurora last week gave me a little concern. Even last night, this was one the Cardinals probably should have won by a little bit more. But at the end of the day, a win is a win. I'm excited to see the growth from this group, and as they gel (and maybe, just maybe get some reinforcements) this team should prove to be a tough out for most of the rest of the CCIW.

2024 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 13

The accelerated deadlines are on the books, which means we're at it early with our Week 13 NFL picks against the spread!

It was a mediocre week for most of us, with a number of hero picks on the docket. Ultimately I couldn't gain any ground at the top as Adam and I split our six disputed games. We're pulling away from the bottom though as Adam took four of six from Joe and I swept the two games we disputed.

Jim had the best week of all of us, which enabled him to pull into a three way tie for first place. I remain in striking distance, just two games off the pace. The gap is starting to widen at the bottom as 11 games separate the top from the bottom, and I have a four game lead on the folks behind me.

You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. The group as a whole split six hero picks this past week. Adam still has the most correct out of everyone but out of several more tries; I remain perfect at 4-0 when I've gone alone. Adam's group-high 12-6 mark in Superminority games (where just he and one other person picked a team) has helped buoy him, Geoffrey has a dominant 22-11 mark in Majority (4-3 split) games, and Jim has a similar 19-11 mark. We went 0-2 on consensus games this past week, and while we're still over .500 in that category, it's been trending downward.

As we get to feast this holiday, Adam and I disagree on half of the 16 game slate, Joe and I on five games, and the two of them on seven.

From all of us at Confessions of a Sportscaster, have a Happy Thanksgiving! Let's get to the picks.

2024 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 12

We're nearing the two-thirds mark of the 2024 NFL season, and the coalition continues to do fairly well on the whole, and the top of the standings remain tight.

I was feeling great around 5:30 on Sunday, and despite cooling off and dropping my last three, a dominant early slate helped lead me to the top score of last week, as I took four of seven disputed games from Adam and five of seven from Joe; Adam took four of six from Joe.

Adam and Geoffrey remain tied atop the group through Week 11, but I continue to come back from my early Great Reversal doldrums and now find myself just two games back after being seven back about a month ago. Overall, just nine games separate first from last place.

You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. My fortunes in hero picks, both for and against, is largely what's buoying me. Adam has the best mark by far in 5-2 split games, and Geoffrey's position tied with Adam is helped by his dominance in 4-3 split games.

As we move onto Week 12, Adam disagrees with Joe and I on six games apiece. Groupthink largely prevails between Joe and I as we only have two disputed games out of the 13. Let's get to it!

2024 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 11

As we get into the nitty gritty part of the season, the race at the top has really tightened up. Just three games separate first place from fifth place.

I had a shot Monday night to move into a tie with Adam, but he salvaged that game, leading me to take only five of eight from him. Adam split his six with Joe, but I swept our two disputed games to pull ahead of the back of the pack.

Groupwise, Adam has moved back into a tie for first with Geoffrey, but again, it's a crowded picture as Jim drops to just a game out of first, John is just a game behind him, and I'm lurking just one behind John. I'll take hanging around for now.

You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. We went 4-1 combined in hero games this week, including me hitting on my third and remaining the only person perfect in those games. Adam remains brilliant in superminority games, going 11-5 so far when he and just one other person agree on a game. Geoffrey has done incredibly well in the 4-3 split games, hitting on a group-best 35 of those 65 games. Consensus picks continue to go well, as after a 2-0 week we're hitting on over 60 percent of those games.

Looking ahead to this week, I disagree with both Joe and Adam on half of the 14 game slate apiece, while they dispute six games. Let's get to it!