Thursday, November 14, 2024

2024 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 11

As we get into the nitty gritty part of the season, the race at the top has really tightened up. Just three games separate first place from fifth place.

I had a shot Monday night to move into a tie with Adam, but he salvaged that game, leading me to take only five of eight from him. Adam split his six with Joe, but I swept our two disputed games to pull ahead of the back of the pack.

Groupwise, Adam has moved back into a tie for first with Geoffrey, but again, it's a crowded picture as Jim drops to just a game out of first, John is just a game behind him, and I'm lurking just one behind John. I'll take hanging around for now.

You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. We went 4-1 combined in hero games this week, including me hitting on my third and remaining the only person perfect in those games. Adam remains brilliant in superminority games, going 11-5 so far when he and just one other person agree on a game. Geoffrey has done incredibly well in the 4-3 split games, hitting on a group-best 35 of those 65 games. Consensus picks continue to go well, as after a 2-0 week we're hitting on over 60 percent of those games.

Looking ahead to this week, I disagree with both Joe and Adam on half of the 14 game slate apiece, while they dispute six games. Let's get to it!

Thursday Night

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
Lucas: Eagles. We get a good Thursday night game?! Maybe Ted won't get abused this week!
Adam: Eagles. Philly has been on a streak of late, though looking back it has been to average at best teams. But I still like that streak continuing here. Wish the line was 2.5, but I’ll still roll the dice.
Joe: Commanders.

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (+6.5)
Lucas: Packers. Firing your idiot offensive coordinator, though deserved, only treats a symptom and not the disease. Not that I'm complaining. DO I HEAR ELEVEN?!
Adam: Packers. A moment of silence for my Bears. Once again we have effed up...
Joe: Packers.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions (-13.5)
Lucas: Lions. Normally I'd hesitate a ton before laying two touchdowns. I did a bit here, but not a lot. The Lions are due for a clunker at some point, but I don't think it's happening here, especially with Trevor sitting this one out.
Adam: Lions. A high line for sure, and once it surpasses 10 you really have to start thinking about it. The Lions are beasts right now, even got away with Goff throwing five picks and still won last week. 13.5 seems like the right line; much more and I would likely flip to the Jags.
Joe: Jaguars.

Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans (+6.5)
Lucas: Vikings. At least one NFC North team won without scoring a touchdown...
Adam: Titans. Maybe going contrarian here, but it just feels like a place to take Tennessee.
Joe: Vikings.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-7.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. We've got a ton of early lines at or around a touchdown. Law of Averages would probably dictate that at least some dogs would cover... but I'm not sure I trust anyone here. Least of all the Raiders.
Adam: Dolphins. With Tua back and not knocked out, Miami has looked much more competent. I’ll keep rolling with that against the Raiders... who’s starting at QB for them these days, is it Minshew Magic Man? Regardless, Miami wins big.
Lucas note: As of about half an hour before I started inputing Adam's picks on Wednesday, Antonio Pierce confirmed that it is indeed Minshew.
Joe: Dolphins.

Los Angeles Rams @ New England Patriots (+5.5)
Lucas: Patriots. Naturally, I'll take the underdog with the least amount of leeway. I'm not impressed with the Rams, and while there's no way New England will play to the level it did in Chicago this past week, I think they'll at least be competitive.
Adam: Rams. With all the receivers back and looking healthy I don’t see this game being close.
Joe: Patriots.

Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints (-1.5)
Lucas: Saints. Darren Rizzi forever.

Adam: Saints. Let’s keep the holy rolling rollin’.
Joe: Saints.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)
Lucas: Steelers.

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Adam: Ravens. This will be a fun game to watch; hope its on here in Dallas. Regardless, I see this game turning into a score fest. Dare I say both teams top 35? Fingers crossed the Euphoric Violet Gazelle and Andrews both take two touchdowns each... for fantasy purposes, of course.
Lucas note: Yep, this game will be on in Dallas.
Joe: Ravens.

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets (-3.5)
Lucas: Colts. I legit don't know what's going on in Indy anymore, and yet somehow it's still better than whatever the hell is going on in New Jersey.
Adam: Colts. The A A Ron Jets featuring Adams have not been the... explosive show we have all hoped for. At this point I tend to agree with the below.
Joe: Colts.

Sunday, Late Afternoon

Atlanta Falcons @ Denver Broncos (-1.5)
Lucas: Broncos. Perna has to get something to make up for Sunday, right?

 

Adam: Falcons. After that letdown of all letdowns getting a game winning FG blocked by the Refs Chiefs, Denver comes back this week and drops a dud. The Falcons will run circles around them. Hopefully that is literally Bijan running those circles right into the endzones for tuddys.
Joe: Falcons.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. The Niners are beatable. Getting a touchdown just helps matters.
Adam: 49ers. Guess who’s back back back, back again... CMC back back back, tell a friend... but seriously, San Francisco is massively improved now that CMC is back. Maybe not by 6.5, but I’ll still lay it and see what happens.
Joe: 49ers.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. Because we literally CANNOT have nice things.
Adam: Bills. I just cannot with KC. They have gotten way too many lucky bounces and well timed penalties called (or not called) to help them win. I get it, good teams find ways to win, and KC is certainly a good team, but one that should still have 2-3 losses. I think they finally meet their match in what could be an AFC championship preview.
Joe: Bills.

Sunday Night

Cincinnati Bengals @ Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
Lucas: Bengals. We're due.

Adam: Bengals. I don’t like the Chargers in this spot. After what Burrow and Chase did last Thursday it's really hard to see anything but another blowout this week. Bengals in a close game.
Joe: Chargers.

Monday Night

Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys (+7.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. Partially because of the line, but I'm also going off the whole "Teams that play the Lions have the effects of that linger into the next week" thing. At least the Cowboys don't have to worry about looking into the sun during this game?


Adam: Texans. What could have been a really really fun game at the beginning of the season has turned into a meh game. Don’t get me wrong, I will still watch, but meh. Also its funny that we have the Texans that will take care of the Heiferladies; seems like destiny.
Joe: Cowboys.

Records So Far
Lucas: 79-73 (9-5 last week)
Adam: 82-70 (7-7 last week)
Joe: 75-77 (7-7 last week)
Geoffrey: 82-70 (8-6 last week)
Jim: 81-71 (5-9 last week)
John: 80-72 (7-7 last week)
Matthew: 74-78 (6-8 last week)

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