I dug back through a decade's worth of records, and we've had some bad weeks over the years. I overlooked what my worst week was, but I'm pretty sure I had a three win week somewhere along the line. Adam has put up 2-11 weeks a couple times, but it's been years since those. Geoffrey once put up a 2-12 week, with the asterisk of some of those losses being counted because he forgot to get his picks in. Both Geoffrey and, back when he was participating, my dad each had a 3-13 week. The... "gold" standard for bad weeks was Joe during the Covid year somehow only getting one game right. But in a decade-plus of picking games, we have a new low for a full 16 game slate.
I took three of five disputed games from Joe, which is fine because he and I both swept Adam in our disputed games last week. The rest of the group had a mediocre to good week, while Adam, in his words, "would like a redo." As a result, what had been probably a four guy race at the top is likely down to three with five weeks to go. Geoffrey is now in sole possession of first place, I gained a game on him, and sit tied with Jim for second and just a game out of the lead.
You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. Adam's dominance in superminority games vanished this week, though he remains tied for the best average in those games. Geoffrey retains the best record in 4-3 split games, which is largely why he's in front right now. Jim has the second best mark in those games, while I've notched the best mark in hero games regardless of who's gone it alone (though my 4-0 mark doing so remains the best in the group thus far).
And so as we get back to it, Adam disagrees with Joe and I on five games apiece; Joe and I dispute four of out 13. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (-3.5)
Lucas: Packers. Yeah, this is partially a heart pick. But the Packers are getting hot at the right time, Toyotathon Jordan Love is a thing, and I can't help but feel that the Lions might be vulnerable here. I look forward to getting my kneecaps eaten because I can't have nice things.
Adam: Lions. I know it’s a divisional game, but the Lions are the better team here and now that they have warded off the Bears on Thanksgiving, they will crush Green Bay. Sorry not sorry Lucas.
Lucas note: You know what, I wasn't going to do it, but now, screw it. Happy anniversary this past Tuesday to this gem.
Joe: Packers.Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary vs. the Detroit Lions https://t.co/5jEik1YKIp pic.twitter.com/w7zAYnW3om
— hoopsjunky (@hoopsjunky54491) December 3, 2024
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Lucas: Titans. If not for Azeez Al-Shaair, I might take the points. Also, dude should have gotten way more than the three games he did, Jacksonville should not have gotten penalized or suffered any player ejections for defending their guy, and... yeah, I'm done. Get well soon, Trevor.
Adam: Titans. Talk about a team that have been playing somewhat better than the beginning of the season, and the Jags without sunshine don’t shine.
Joe: Jaguars.
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-6.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. Even though we had a couple vintage "Rodgers to Adams is a cheat code" plays this past week, it's nowhere near enough. Miami's better and given they're at home, I'll lay the touchdown.
Adam: Jets. I like the Fins to win, but A A Ron has something left, right?
Joe: Dolphins.
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
Lucas: Vikings. Don't think I'm seeing a Kirk Cousins Revenge Game incoming.
Adam: Vikings. Four interceptions! 4! Cousins' days may be numbered in Atlanta. Season is certainly not over for the Falcons, but the cries for Penix have already started a little from what I am seeing.
Joe: Falcons.
New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants (+4.5)
Lucas: Saints. I'm going for a walk.
Joe: Saints.
Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-12.5)
Lucas: Panthers. I was pretty vocally on the "Bryce Young is a bust" train a couple months ago, but dude reacted to his benching earlier this year perfectly, and is making some strides. They're enough that naturally, this game shouldn't have this large of a point spread. Philly wins, but they have some trouble containing Young and company.
Adam: Panthers. Really good line; in Philly they are getting a few extra, so I’ll play that the home field edge isn’t worth the 3 points typically given to home teams. Plus Young has looked good... ok, serviceable since being reinserted into the lineup.
Joe: Panthers.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)
Lucas: Browns. I've said it before, but the NFL needs to not have divisional opponents play each other twice in three weeks. Variety is better, and I already have enough of teams seeing each other a ton in D-III. Although at this point I think Hardin-Simmons deserves its own Legacy of Failure video.
Lucas note: I can; I've been saying it for weeks.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. I'm seeing a letdown following the Raiders' tight game in Kansas City. Hard to follow up on that level of emotion.
Adam: Buccaneers. I don’t like that extra half point, but Tampa is the better team. Though fun fact: who has the most receptions in the NFL through last week? Rookie TE Brock Bowers from the Raiders. So its pretty much him and... no one.
Joe: Buccaneers.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. Honestly I could see this going either way. Taking the home team especially as a solidarity pick now that we're in the D-III playoffs. Beat Hope.
Adam: Seahawks. Divisional game and taking points. I like Seattle in this spot.
Joe: Cardinals.
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams (+4.5)
Lucas: Bills. This might be my favorite stat ever.
| Rece | Rece | Rece | Rece | Rece | Rece | Rece | Rece | Rece | Rece | Rece | Rece | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | Age | Team | Lg | Pos | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | 1D | Succ% | Lng | R/G | Y/G | Ctch% | Y/Tgt |
| 2024 | 28 | BUF | NFL | QB | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0.0 | 0.6 |
Joe: Bills.
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)
Lucas: Bears. Mainly because the Niners are injured to hell and back and also because the Law of Averages says there's no way the Bears can find some other convoluted way to eff up and lose a seventh in a row... though if Thomas Brown says "Hold my beer" and finds a way I'm going to laugh hysterically. Sorry, just one last time I'm gonna pour one out for Matt Eberflus being a [expletive] idiot. Adam, Joe: avert your eyes.
Joe: Bears.
Sunday Night
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)
Lucas: Chargers. This was a tough line because I'm operating on the "They can't keep getting away with this!" argument even though the Chiefs totally will. It's that half point though that's probably gonna kill me.
Adam: Chargers. You heard it here first: Chargers to win straight up.
Joe: Chargers.
Monday Night
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys (+5.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. Mainly because Cincy's defense is awful.
| Tot | Tot | Tot | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Rush | Rush | Rush | Rush | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | PF | Yds | Ply | Y/P | TO | FL | 1stD | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | NY/A | 1stD | Att | Yds | TD | Y/A |
| Opp. Stats | 340 | 4430 | 783 | 5.7 | 12 | 5 | 266 | 266 | 408 | 2892 | 22 | 7 | 6.7 | 144 | 354 | 1538 | 16 | 4.3 |
| Lg Rank Defense | 31 | 27 | 20 | 17 | 30 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 16 | 28 | 26 | 22 | 27 | 12 |
Lucas note: The Cowboys are "America's Team" in the sense that when they lose, America wins and rejoices. Which, unfortunately, means they're gonna keep getting primetime games even though they don't deserve it. Also, don't do Trash Pandas dirty like that.
Records So Far
Lucas: 104-91 (10-6 last week)
Adam: 98-97 (2-14 last week)
Joe: 94-101 (9-7 last week)
Geoffrey: 105-90 (9-7 last week)
Jim: 104-91 (8-8 last week)
John: 100-95 (10-6 last week)
Matthew: 93-102 (6-10 last week)
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