I was feeling great around 5:30 on Sunday, and despite cooling off and dropping my last three, a dominant early slate helped lead me to the top score of last week, as I took four of seven disputed games from Adam and five of seven from Joe; Adam took four of six from Joe.
Adam and Geoffrey remain tied atop the group through Week 11, but I continue to come back from my early Great Reversal doldrums and now find myself just two games back after being seven back about a month ago. Overall, just nine games separate first from last place.
You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. My fortunes in hero picks, both for and against, is largely what's buoying me. Adam has the best mark by far in 5-2 split games, and Geoffrey's position tied with Adam is helped by his dominance in 4-3 split games.
As we move onto Week 12, Adam disagrees with Joe and I on six games apiece. Groupthink largely prevails between Joe and I as we only have two disputed games out of the 13. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (+3.5)
Lucas: Steelers. I keep saying it: the BS is real.
Adam: Steelers. This just seems like the low hanging fruit pick, so I’m going to just grab it.
Joe: Steelers.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (+3.5)
Lucas: Vikings. Hold on, I'm not done injecting this into my veins yet. Sorry, Joe and Adam.
Adam: Vikings. I’m a saaaaaaaaad Bears fan.Radio call of the Packers' blocked field goal. Best part is Wayne and Larry not knowing who blocked it because Soldier Field wouldn't show a replay. pic.twitter.com/LGNFNcxsiN
— Salvatore (@Fear_Jaire) November 17, 2024
Joe: Vikings.
Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts (+7.5)
Lucas: Lions. Detroit this year is like what would be happening if I were playing my Madden 11 franchise, but with the difficulty on like, All-Pro at worst. I can't win every game 192-0, after all.
Adam: Lions. How is this line only 7.5?! Saw a post the other day saying the lions have scored 252 points in their last 4/5 games and that is more than like half the league FOR THE SEASON! I am worried to see the line next week for the Bears Turkey Day bowl with them.
Lucas note: The official numbers: Detroit has scored 336 points in 10 games this season; 232 of those have come since their Week 5 bye. That post-bye total is more than 14 teams have for the entire season. Also, I think the Broncos -27.5 line against Jacksonville back when Peyton Manning was in Denver is safe.
Joe: Lions.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (-7.5)
Lucas: Patriots. I think Miami wins this game, especially since it's in South Florida, which has been a cursed place for New England. I just think the line gives me enough wiggle room for a back door cover, especially if Drake Maye continues his development.
Adam: Patriots. It's that half point. The Fins are way better now that Tua is back and not getting knocked out. But New England has brought it back too, so I like Fins to win, but Pats to cover. Maybe even in a nail biter.
Joe: Patriots.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants (+5.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. Don't think Tommy Cutlets is gonna be enough to get over the hump here.
Adam: Giants. DeVito to Nabors... touchdown, and for a limited time only, get your $16.99 large pizza special at Sal's.
Joe: Buccaneers.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders (-10.5)
Lucas: Commanders. I was a little hesitant to lay this many, but we're clearly in Heiferladies territory here, especially with Jerra World falling apart, literally.
Lucas note: Huh. Let's workshop this.
Joe: Commanders.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers (+11.5)
Lucas: Panthers. I was hesitant here too, and the Chiefs now have the pressure off after losing in Buffalo this past week, but they still haven't looked impressive at all this season. Taking the points.
Adam: Chiefs. Next.
Joe: Chiefs.
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (-8.5)
Lucas: Texans. Houston's just better. Moving on.
Adam: Texans. So I went into Monday Night down 38 points against my opponent in fantasy. Needed a massive night from Mixon. Damn son, you almost gave me the W that I had no business even being close to getting. Ended up losing by 2.75ish... that's like one catch for 20 yds. Alas.
Joe: Texans.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5)
Lucas: Broncos. Now I'm not saying Bo Nix for offensive rookie of the year, but...
Adam: Broncos. Before I saw the line I said to myself, "Don’t overreact to last week," thinking the line was going to be over a touchdown. 5.5 still seems just a smidge high, but I’ll still take the much better Bo Nix-led Broncos.
Joe: Broncos.
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
Lucas: Packers. I've been trafficking a bunch of commercials for it the past couple days, so since it's that time of year... ALL HAIL TOYOTATHON JORDAN LOVE.
@cheeseheadtv Jordan Love’s Toyotathon is ON!
♬ original sound - CheeseheadTV
Adam: Packers. Tough line for what could be a really good game. I like CMC better than Jacobs, but I still think Purdy is overrated. Plus San Francisco has just seems to be missing a half step this year, so I’ll lay the points to the home team and pray.
Joe: 49ers.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-1.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. I think Arizona is better than the Niners, and Seattle just barely scraped by last week. Call it a letdown or whatever, but Cardinals win.
Adam: Seahawks. Bucking the ESPN pick percentage. Surprised its 60-40 Cards as of Wednesday early evening, but man, in a divisional game where both teams have played well, I’ll just give this coin flip to the home team. Also wouldn’t be surprised if I lose because Seattle only wins by 1 or the Cards win outright.
Joe: Cardinals.
Sunday Night
Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams (+2.5)
Lucas: Eagles. I know LA's getting healthier, but I honestly expected to have to lay more than a field goal.
Adam: Rams. I don’t like it, but my gut says pick the Rams, so here's to you Mr Stafford.
Joe: Eagles.
Monday Night
Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5)
Lucas: Chargers. I should really expect a Chargering, but Jim Harbaugh is probably saving it for the playoffs.
Adam: Ravens. I just feel like we haven’t seen the best of Derrick Henry the past few weeks. He is due for 225 and two touchdowns.
Joe: Chargers.
Records So Far
Lucas: 88-78 (9-5 last week)
Adam: 90-76 (8-6 last week)
Joe: 81-85 (6-8 last week)
Geoffrey: 90-76 (8-6 last week)
Jim: 88-78 (7-7 last week)
John: 85-81 (5-9 last week)
Matthew: 81-85 (7-7 last week)
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