2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Championship

In an ideal world, I would be letting the game in Arlington, Texas Monday night play out on its own to decide this playoff system's champion. However, since home field advantage means a ton apparently, I have to simulate one more matchup. If you wish, consider this sim a third place game.

Last week the top two seeds of the Death to the BCS Playoffs escaped with narrow wins to make it to Arlington. While Ohio State won the real trophy in Arlington last night, Alabama and Florida State will take the virtual field to take up a virtual championship banner.

Since these teams have been dropped from Don Best's handicapping site, I'm using the standard starting lineups given to me. Since AT&T Stadium has a roof, weather is not being taken into account (so basically, 70 degrees, no wind, no precipitation). Since this is the title game, I will simulate this as a best-of-five as opposed to a best-of-three that I've done through the first three rounds. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's crown a "champion".

NFL Divisional Round Preview

The quest to improve my picking resume for the 2014 season has failed. It's now impossible for me to finish above .500 for the year including the playoffs after an off week last week.

While I correctly picked three out of the four winners, in terms of spreads, one team covered that I expected not to, and another had to scrap out a late touchdown to win, forget about covering. This week, the "top four" teams in the NFL all get to host games.

Included with each game once again will be a line provided by Vegas Insider, taken as close to posting time as possible. If nothing else, maybe I can salvage a few games and make myself look like I kind of knew what I was talking about in 2014.

Game Notes: (WBK) Millikin University @ North Central College (1/7/15)

Final Score
NCC 95, Millikin 75

Game Summary
After finally getting the national recognition they deserve, the #24 Cardinals (13-0, 2-0) were able to battle the Big Blue (10-3, 1-1) pretty evenly early with threes falling at a reasonable clip. The two teams tied seven times and swapped the lead seven more, though the Cardinals seemed in control late in the half, leading by as many as nine before taking a 45-40 lead into the locker room. The Cardinals came out firing in the second half, but the Big Blue kept pace, getting as close as three at 59-56 before the Cardinals started to pull away. Despite having time to go for the century mark, Coach Roof called off the dogs with about 90 seconds to go.

Key Stats

• Jamie Cuny (NCC): 6-11 FG (4-7 3PT); 16 pts, 12 reb (3 off), 6 blk. One of the more underrated parts of Jamie's game is her outside shot. She's struggled a little bit from beyond the arc, but her performance last night puts her at 31.9 percent from beyond the arc. She led all rebounders, and with four first half blocks, broke Lindsay Feris' record of 52 blocks in a single season... and we're only 13 games in.
• Tess Godhardt (NCC): 8-14 FG (0-1 3PT), 6-8 FT; 22 pts, 11 reb (8 off), 6 stl. This was Tess' game to command, as she was able to find space in the lane for some good looks at layups. A couple of her offensive rebounds came on one sequence where she came up short on layups but got her own rebound. She's been a godsend all season, helping keep the Cardinals putting points on the board when the threes aren't falling.
• Alyssa Saklak (MIL): 12-24 FG, 4-5 FT; 28 pts, 11 reb (7 off). The defending CCIW Player of the Week followed up a strong performance last week with a monster game despite only playing 19 minutes due to foul trouble. She was able to make adjustments to her offensive game around the contesting arms of Jamie Cuny and other Cardinal post players to log a season high in points.

North Central System Watch

• Millikin Turnovers: 24. Millikin has struggled historically against the system, and 24 turnovers hurts a lot. They had one five second call on an inbounds pass, a handful of travels, and threw a few passes away, but 14 of the turnovers came on Cardinal steals. Tess Godhardt led the way with six, while Miranda Grizaffi, Mayson Whipple, and Corrine Rowe each had two.
• NCC 3PT: 15-61 (24.6%). Overall... not the best outing. The Cardinals shot 6-29 from deep in the first half before catching some fire for stretches in the second half. The percentage isn't great, but making 15 when you shoot 61 isn't too terrible. Most of the threes were open, but not always taken with set feet. That will probably help boost the percentages a little bit.
• NCC Charges Drawn: 2. Therese Pettersson and Bobbi Johns each picked up a charge in the second half, and I wasn't sure because the officials made delayed calls of offensive fouls. This helped to offset the multitude of offensive fouls the Cardinals had called on them in the first half.

Around the CCIW

• @Elmhurst 63 (8-5, 1-1), Augustana 49 (6-7, 0-2)
• @ Carthage 58 (9-4, 2-0), North Park 53 (8-5, 0-2)
• Wheaton 72 (12-1, 2-0), @ Illinois Wesleyan 46 (6-7, 0-2)

Final Thoughts

And all it took was a 12-0 start, a WSJ article, a @d3hoopsville appearance, and the ramblings of a homer PA guy: http://t.co/wqsGIyKSZX #24
— Lucas Mitzel (@northsider89) January 6, 2015

I tweeted this out on Tuesday morning after learning that the Cardinals finally broke into the Top 25, something that was a long time coming, and this game was a good first test for a ranked team. The Big Blue just seemed to run out of gas as the game went on, a pretty common occurrence in this system.

The Cardinals are on the road for the next week, with the true test coming up on Saturday: #13 Wheaton. They're the consensus team to beat in the CCIW and are one of only two teams (Carthage being the other) that hasn't lost to the system, and the Thunder have never had the close calls Carthage has had. Saturday will be a good barometer of how good this Cardinal team really is.

2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Semifinals

The Death to the BCS Playoffs march on, even though the matchup for the national championship in the College Football Playoff has already been decided. Even so, I promised simulations for this, so I have to oblige.

We did have some interesting developments in the past week though. In the opening round of the Death to the BCS Playoffs, Ole Miss ended up beating TCU in Texas, but in reality, TCU ended up winning on a neutral field. Out of curiosity, I ran a sim of what would have happened had TCU won in the first round, and ultimately... it didn't impact anything. Thus, the final four remains intact.

So as a refresher, the two semifinal matchups will be simulated best-of-three, with the "clinching" game being the official result. Don Best's handicapping site is being used to make sure injured players don't impact the outcome, and because I actually forgot to check the weather conditions at or near kickoff time on Saturday, weather data for this week is being taken from Weather Underground. All simulations this week are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's see if we get a replicated championship.

Game Notes (MBK) Illinois Wesleyan University @ North Central College (1/3/15)

Final Score
NCC 78, IWU 72

Game Summary
A tight and fairly chippy game followed the women's comeback heroics as the Cardinals (11-1, 1-0) locked into a tight battle and saw leading scorer Charles Rosenberg get in some early foul trouble. The Titans (8-4, 0-1) had similar trouble with one of their leaders and the teams had to find other players to step up. Both sides managed to keep it a tight ball game, with the Cardinals taking the biggest lead at four points late in the half, while Wesleyan stayed within a basket otherwise, going into halftime with a 36-35 Cardinal lead. The Titans pushed to take a couple small leads early in the second half, but their last was a 46-43 edge about five minute in. The Cardinals went on a mini rally to retake the lead and maintained it within a couple baskets for a few minutes before opening up a ten point lead. Wesleyan pulled to within two at 72-70 with a minute to play, but timely free throw shooting put the game away for the Cardinals.

Key Stats

• Jack Burchett (NCC): 9-16 FG, 7-8 FT; 25 pts, 5 reb (1 off), 4 ast. With Rosenberg in foul trouble much of the game (he only played 15 minutes), Burchett took over the major scoring duties in the paint. A 9-16 line isn't bad, but what really impressed me was his free throw shooting. He shot about 29 percent from the line as a freshman, then after a year off improved to 41 percent, then 47 percent last year. His 87 percent night last night bumps him up to 50 percent for the season.
• Brandon White (NCC): 1-3 FG, 2-2 FT; 4 pts, 7 reb (5 off), 2 ast. White is only 6'3", but in the land of a bunch of giants, he led all rebounders, and was a key part of the Cardinals getting 13 second chance points. You need someone to do the dirty work, and he did a great job of it last night.
• Jordan Nelson (IWU): 5-11 FG (4-8 3PT); 14 pts, 1 reb, 3 ast. With the Titans' leading scorer in foul trouble, the Titans had to turn to their bench for scoring, and Nelson led the way. He was lethal from deep. Two of his threes came during Wesleyan's late rally from down 11, one to start the rally and the other to make it a two point game.

Around the CCIW

• Augustana 73 (11-1, 1-0), @Carthage 42 (4-7, 0-1)
• @Elmhurst 83 (11-1, 1-0), Wheaton 75 (7-5, 0-1)
• Millikin 77 (6-6, 1-0), @ North Park 67 (8-3, 0-0)

Final Thoughts
Honestly (and I find myself saying this a lot lately), the officiating was pretty bad, but it was bad both ways. There was a stretch before the Titans' final comeback where the Titans got some pretty bad calls go their way, but the many Titans fans that infiltrated Merner were also upset many times at the calls, to the point where allegedly one of them dropped an F-bomb on a ref during a timeout (I didn't hear it, but someone else at the table did). Even so, despite all the fouls and all the free throws that were shot late, the Cardinals took care of business. They're going to rise in the ranking from #21, while Illinois Wesleyan will definitely falter a little bit from their spot at #9.

The men begin a two game road trip, traveling to Decatur to take on Millikin before next Saturday's double header at our greatest rival in Wheaton. They'll be back home on Wednesday the 14th to take on an Augustana team that's ranked second in the nation.

Game Notes: (WBK) Illinois Wesleyan University @ North Central College (1/3/15)

Final Score
NCC 59, IWU 56

Game Summary
It was a slow start for the Cardinals (12-0, 1-0) offensively, as many of their shots, especially threes, failed to fall. The Titans (6-6, 0-1) meanwhile, picked apart the North Central press and got some easy baskets. Then head coach Mia Smith unleashed a brilliant strategy: run four corners on offense to slow the Cardinals down, and expose the back door if it's open. This helped keep the Titans ahead, but the Cardinals slowly crept back into the contest and made it a 29-23 Titan lead at halftime. The Cardinals pulled to within three quickly, but then the Titans retook control, seemingly grabbed every loose ball and built the lead back up to 15. The Cardinals struggled to break through, though they did get the deficit into single digits a couple times, until there were less than seven minutes left. The Cardinals ultimately closed on a 20-6 run, capped off by a go-ahead layup with under a minute to play, and a couple free throws sealed the deal.

Key Stats

• Bobbi Johns (NCC): 3-5 FG, 3-4 FT; 9 pts, 1 reb, 6 ast, 1 blk, 2 stl. Bobbi actually had a very good floor game, distributing the ball quite a bit during the comeback, while also finding holes in the defense for easy layups. She drove inside to hit what turned out to be the game-winner, then hit a pair of free throws with one and a half seconds left to ice the game.
• Jamie Cuny (NCC): 2-4 FG (0-1 3PT), 1-2 FT; 5 pts, 6 reb (2 off), 6 blk, 1 stl. Jamie typically won't score a ton of points, unless she's hitting a couple threes or getting wide open looks down low. Instead, she cleans up on defense. Her six rebounds led the team, and with six blocks on the night, she has 49 on the season, needing only four more to break the single season record... and we're only halfway through the campaign. She's also now eighth on the all-time list for blocks, and will probably own the all time record by the end of the season.
• Kasey Reaber (IWU): 9-15 FG, 1-4 FT; 19 pts, 10 reb, 7 ast, 1 blk, 3 stl. Reaber frequently exposed back door openings during the Wesleyan Four Corners phase. She was on pace to be the player of the game, but the late rally was enough to frustrate her.

North Central System Watch

• IWU Turnovers: 18. This is low for North Central in terms of forcing turnovers. The Titans did a pretty good job taking care of the ball, with only a couple throwaways. Ten of them came on steals, with Bobbi Johns and Mayson Whipple each leading the way with two.
• NCC 3PT: 8-37 (21.6%). This is one of the lower numbers in terms of attempts, for one thing. The team shot 3-20 from deep in the first half, with a couple of the makes coming late. Their second half numbers were closer to their average for the season, and they always seemed to come at key moments.
• NCC Chargers Drawn: 5. They had a ton tonight. Truth be told, the first one drawn by Therese Pettersson was probably a bad call, but the following four were all legit. Bobbi Johns, Maryssa Cladis and Anita Sterling also picked up charges in the first half, and then Johns drew a second one in the second half.

CCIW Watch

• Wheaton 67 (11-1, 1-0), @Elmhurst 56 (7-5, 0-1)
• @Carthage 74 (8-4, 1-0), Augustana 51 (6-6, 0-1)
• Millikin 69 (10-2, 1-0), @North Park 66 (8-4, 0-1)

Final Thoughts

This is the sort of game that the 2013-14 Cardinals would have lost. There was a little bit of panic at times where they played out of control, but they never gave up. I kept waiting and waiting for them to make a play in the second half to turn the tide, and eventually they did. It was cause for celebration, but they have to remember: there are 13 games left in conference play. Anything can happen.

Meanwhile, this team remains undefeated, and there is still no respect from the national polls. Mililani comes calling on Wednesday, so we'll see how the Cardinals do against another strong opponent. Meanwhile, enjoy this scene from the end of the game.

Post by North Central College Athletics.

NFL Wild Card Preview

Happy 2015! I hope your 2014 was full of wonderful moments and memories, and that your 2015 will have more of the same!

With the NFL playoffs fast approaching, I want to run through all of the upcoming games this weekend. Much like last year, a lot of people are up in arms about the format of the playoffs, especially that a team with a losing record gets to host a playoff game. I'll say what I said last year: Win your division, get a home game. If you didn't do well enough to win your division, focus on that, not on the supposed "injustices" of the system.

Each game is accompanied by a line from Vegas Insider, which will be taken as close to posting time as possible. This means another 11 games of picking against the spread, something I did not do well in 2014. I did, however, do enough to beat Adam in the Pigskin Pick 'Em. Going in, I needed to tie him to hang on, and it didn't look good after the noon games. Then the Packers got Matthew Stafford to intentionally ground a pass and the Cardinals gave the 49ers a good game and I was able to hang on by a game. The sanctity of COAS is secure for another year.

Let's look at this weekend's slate.