2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 17

The fifth season of picking NFL games against the spread all comes down to this. One week. 16 games. The coalition separated by just six games.

Adam went insane last week, making his picks purely based on his fantasy championships. He did all right from what I understand, though he had one opponent whose team went bonkers and he went into Monday night needing Golden Tate to have something like 15 catches for 350 yards and three touchdowns to mount the miracle comeback. But on here, his insanity paid off as he managed to take six of our 11 disputed games and pick up one of the games he's lost in recent weeks back. This includes yet another discrepancy between ESPN and Confessions of a Sportscaster where Adam picked the wrong team on ESPN. He actually has one more point than ESPN says he does, which narrows the gap.

This puts him in a tie for third place with my dad, three games back of me. And after spending the first month or two of the season spotting the rest of the coalition a cushion, I've caught fire in recent weeks, and Logan's lead has dropped to one game. It will all come down to these final 16 games. If you want a breakdown of how we've all picked in relation to each other, you can view a spreadsheet of that here.

Now, Adam is on his way to Dallas with his family [insert "Traitor!" video here]. As such, he was unable to get me his picks this week, which I totally understand. I was able to scramble reinforcements for this final week, thankfully. I tried to get Logan to fill in, but he was unable to, so my dad graciously stepped in to take his place and join me for this final round. He had this to say about doing so:

Note to Adam - I'm happy to fill in, only because I'm off from work this week and have the time. You are not Bledsoe to my Brady or Romo to my Prescott. The starting job is still yours.

Well, I guess it's good we don't have a quarterback picker controversy. As for this week, I must be my father's son, because we only disagree on three of the final 16 games. Sorry Dad, that means the best you can do is tie me.

To my fellow competitors: it has been a fun season, and an honor to compete with you all. Good luck!

2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Quarterfinals

I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas! As we close out 2016, I have one final college football related post to write out for the calendar year.

Last week saw the opening round of this year's Death to the BCS Playoffs, which was mostly chalk, with a couple exceptions, including the second straight year of a 14 seed knocking off the 3 seed. But now, the road gets tougher.

With the holiday, I ended up moving this week's games up to Friday so they wouldn't conflict with the NFL, and this also allows the players to get back home for Christmas after the fact. After all, these kids are students first.

So like in the last round, home field advantage goes to the higher seeded team. Weather at kickoff time is taken into account, and I try to adjust teams' offensive depth charts based on injury data taken from Don Best's handicapping website. These games are simulated as a best-of-three, with the "clinching" game serving as the official result. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get to it!

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 16

We've got just two weeks left in this NFL season, and the playoff picture is clearing up. The standings of our consortium, however, are far less clear.

One thing that is clear, however, is that my hot streak continues. Adam went into desperation mode last week, and he did all right, but I still took five of our eight disputed games to build a four game lead on him and pull to within three of the group lead. If you want a look at a breakdown of how we've all been picking in relation to each other, you can view that here.

Last week I'd also mentioned that we had a goof up on ESPN where Adam picked contrary to what he is on record here as picking. He did it again this past week, but fortunately, it went the opposite direction: he picked wrong on ESPN but was correct on here, so he gets an extra point. This makes up for the one he had subtracted on here from the week before, so his ESPN total is now once again in line with what he's supposed to have.

Adam is back from Dallas for the holiday weekend, and he's once again in desperation mode. From his email with his picks:

I may have gone from first to worst in the Pick 'Em, but I am sitting pretty in 3, yes 3, fantasy football super bowls. Projected to win 2, and close in the 3rd. So I am going to pick this week based on which team I want to do well (or not) based on my fantasy football players (or my opponents').

Okay then. This week we disagree on a whopping 11 games out of the 16 being played. We'll see if I can keep a grip on the lead as Adam lays all his chips on his fantasy teams. From all of us here at Confessions of a Sportscaster, we wish you a Merry Christmas!

2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: First Round

For the fifth season, a college football playoff is playing out here on Confessions of a Sportscaster!

Defending College Football Playoff and (two-time defending) Death to the BCS Playoffs Champion Alabama is our top seed this season. This sort of thing has been par for the course in the history of this tournament: favorites to win the national championship have tended to win this tournament. Of course, we've had some weird things happen. In 2013, Stanford would lose the Rose Bowl to Michigan State, but in the Death to the BCS Playoffs, the third-seeded Cardinal would win the title while the Spartans were on the wrong end of a 5-12 upset. 2014 had a few first round upsets, but chalk got rocked the rest of the way instead of the chaos of reality. Last year had our first real Cinderella story as 14th-seeded MAC champ Bowling Green pulled a pair of upsets before the Tide struck the midnight bell en route to another title.

So how much chalk are we destined to see this year? Will we end up with the same Final Four as the committee created? Or will someone sneak their way in?

To find out, we're going the only way we can really do this: simulation. But we're not simulating these games at neutral sites. Higher seeds have been granted home field advantage this week and each of the next two weeks en route to the title game that gets played at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena because where else? Why not play college football's biggest game on the sport's grandest stage? Forget Glendale; the Grandaddy of Them All has to have this honor.

So to determine the teams fighting for this privilege, we're going to take that home field advantage for each of the eight games and take weather as accurately as possible from real conditions and factor that into the simulations. In an attempt to make sure injured players aren't having an impact, I'm using injury data from Don Best's handicapping website to adjust depth charts accordingly. I'm going to simulate each game as a best of three in an attempt to factor out luck, with the "clinching" game serving as the official result. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Without further ado, let's get to the football!

Game Notes: Robert Morris University @ North Central College (12/17/16)

Final Score
Robert Morris 77, NCC 70

Game Summary
It was a subpar game for the Cardinals (6-3) as they struggled to get anything going for about three or four minutes. The Eagles (9-4) led 6-3 early before the Cardinals got a 7-0 run going to take control, but the Eagles were right back in it and took control of the game. Robert Morris would lead by as many as seven with about two minutes before halftime, but the Cardinals scored eight unanswered points to take the lead, but the Eagles grabbed it right back to take a 34-33 lead into the break. North Central came out flat to start the second half as Robert Morris opened the first three minutes on a 12-2 run to take firm control of this one. They pushed the lead as high as 15 a couple minutes later before the Cardinals finally woke up. They cut the lead to as low as eight over the next three minutes, but the Eagles hit a pair of threes to ultimately end the Cardinal threat. They led by as many as 17 before the Cardinals chipped away in garbage time.

Key Stats

• Darius Paul (RMU): 7-10 FG (1-1 3PT), 5-6 FT; 20 pts, 10 reb (4 off). I figured going into this one that we would have a good battle between Paul and Alex Sorenson, and Paul clearly won the war. He was able to get to the basket with relative ease and did a good job on the glass. He was also a solid defender with his length down low.
• Erwin Henry (NCC): 11-20 FG (1-3 3PT); 23 pts, 5 reb (1 off), 2 ast. Don't let this stat line fool you; Henry had a good game overall, but most of his points came late when the game was effectively over. He got a few easy layups in the final minute to pad his stats, and seemed to be one of the few who cared in this game. He was one of the guys who helped bring North Central back while it was still a game, but he committed a dumb loose ball foul, his fourth, that forced him out of the game.
• Jack Bronec (NCC): 3-4 FG, 2-2 FT; 8 pts, 9 reb (3 off), 1 stl. Jack was a key for me coming into the year as someone who was supposed to show a lot of promise, and as a key piece off the bench to relieve Alex Sorenson. He did a phenomenal job of that tonight as one of the few guys who seemed to really care, as he did a great job on the boards, and showed some promise offensively (though his miss was pretty ugly, and was a makable shot). That one nit aside, he played very well.

Final Thoughts
I don't know why, but this team is struggling. Granted, they played without Connor Raridon, who has a hand injury and will miss a significant chunk of time, but I don't know that Raridon would have made a difference. The Cardinals were a bipolar team today; they had stretches where they played to their potential, and other times where they looked lackadaisical. I've heard secondhand talk about D-Term at North Central being a cause, and maybe there's something to it.

If you look at the minutes, Jagger Anderson sat for a big chunk of the second half after some lazy defense, and Alex Sorenson only played 24 minutes, possibly because he also looked out of it. It made for some good minutes for guys like Bronec and Matt Cappelletti, who is going to get some significant playing time with Raridon out.

North Central closes out the calendar year on the road, as they play a tournament in Fort Lauderdale next week, then have a week off before heading up to Stevens Point. After that, we resume CCIW play. Hopefully the Cardinals have their act together for Augustana and North Park, two tough tests for when we resume.

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 15

Huh. That went well.

Week 14 is in the books, Week 15 is upon us, and Adam is on his way to Dallas to take on his transfer at work. I will miss him dearly, but thankfully this feature will live on. I enjoy this picking games against the spread thing too much to let it go, and I think Adam has fun with it too. And it's not like he won't be back up here at some point.

But this past week I gave him the going away gift of a good, old-fashioned butt whooping as I took seven of our eight disputed games to move ahead of him into third place. The standings on ESPN are now out of whack, and I'm surprised it took until Week 14 for there to be a goof up. Adam picked the Cardinals over the Dolphins on our Week 14 post, but took the Dolphins on ESPN by accident. I double checked precedent, and by rule, the standings on Confessions of a Sportscaster overrule those on ESPN, so in actuality I have a two game lead on him. He has one more point on ESPN than he should, but it doesn't impact the order of the standings this week.

Logan remains in first place thanks to his early success in "minority" picks, where he and only one other person correctly picked a game, but he had a down week in that department. He made up for it elsewhere though to remain in first place. If you want a full breakdown of our picks by who has made them in relation to everyone else, you can view that breakdown here. My thanks go to Adam for coming up with this idea last year.

I also want to do a shameless plug before I get into the picks for the week. This weekend is also the opening round of the Death to the BCS Playoffs, which should be exciting. It's not too late to get your predictions in and see how you think the simulator will end up working.

This week, Adam went into full panic mode. Given the flip in the standings, he wanted another shakeup and so his daughter Addison helped. This week Addy (and Adam by proxy) and I disagree on eight games out of the 16. Let's see if the lead here changes hands again or if I can maintain the control that I have just gained.

Announcing, Insider Information, and "Wakeyleaks"

Photo by Marc Lebryk (USA TODAY Sports)

If you're a play by play man, color commentator, or other announcer for a sports team, let's face it: you've got a pretty awesome job. You get paid to watch sports, and in a lot of instances you get a look at a team that most people can only dream of.

Which is why the story out of Wake Forest is just so bizarre. Yesterday the news broke of an investigation into leaked game planning information for the Demon Deacons' football team pinned the release of insider information on the team's radio voice Tommy Elrod. As a background, Elrod played at Wake Forest, then coached there for a number of years. But in 2014 when a new head coach came aboard, he wasn't retained, and instead moved to the broadcast booth.

So what's the motivation here? Money and revenge are the two theories on the table. I don't know how common people with inside access are bribed for this sort of information or if so, how much money would typically be offered. Revenge seems more likely; you lose a job for seemingly no reason other than you aren't a guy known by the new boss, it's not hard to imagine you'd want to get back at him. But leaking information to opponents is unheard of.

Needless to say, Elrod has been fired. I wouldn't be surprised if he's effectively blacklisted from working in college football ever again considering his actions. I hope for his sake his revenge was worth it.

That's what's so puzzling to me. I've got an in at North Central for both the men's and women's basketball teams. Especially on the women's side: Michelle Roof has been very gracious with me about allowing me access to the program. Obviously I don't set foot in the locker room or anything like that, but I've got an open invitation to practices, and I've been a guest at the last three postseason banquets. She's mentioned some things that I'm sure aren't supposed to be public knowledge, and so I do my best to not mention a lot of those things on here or elsewhere online. I know I'm in a favored position, and I'm not going to do anything to jeopardize that.

And even if I had done something like that, what good does revenge by leaking inside information do? It makes me look bad, you could argue it makes the programs that take advantage of it look bad, and you get a whole scandal like what "Wakeyleaks" has turned into, even though the name is fantastic. The lesson to be learned here is that when you have a privileged position, don't do anything to jeopardize it. And if you get snubbed, revenge is probably not the best answer.