NFL Division Round Preview

It's been a busy week for me in preparing for a lot of big changes, all the while struggling to survive the harsh Chicago winter. Yet still, even if it's at the last minute, I can get together a quick NFL preview for the upcoming weekend.

I actually had a chance this weekend to watch a couple of the playoff games pretty much in their entirety. While my office has been great this year in putting games up in our office area (mainly Bears games, alas), we still have to work, so I can't devote full attention over. Last Sunday I got to actually dedicate time to watch both games. Sadly, this meant I had to watch my Packers fall just short.

The games must go on, so now I go forth to pick how I think the divisional round will go. I'll pick a score, which will serve as both a straight up pick and one against the spread. Said spreads are pulled from Vegas Insider. Spread was taken at the time of posting, and no money is being wagered.


Saturday Games

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks (-8)

Hm, this seems familiar... These two teams met in Week 13, and the Seahawks clobbered the Saints up at CenturyLink Field. The 12th Man gets to make itself heard again on Saturday against a really good opponent. Normally the storyline would be pretty simple: New Orleans is not good on the road, and Seattle is amazing at home. Let's also not forget that the last time these two teams met in the playoffs, Marshawn Lynch caused an earthquake.

Things are very different though from that January day in 2011, and even from earlier this season. New Orleans got that "Can't win a road playoff game" monkey off their backs with their last-second win over Philadelphia last Saturday, and a good defense that contained a tough Eagle attack should make for a good challenge for Seattle. The Seahawks home field advantage took a hit as well since the last time these teams met, with the Hawks dropping their game against the Cardinals in the Northwest a few weeks ago. The fact that the spread is so massive boggles my mind. I give Seattle the win here, but the Saints aren't going to go down without a fight.

Prediction: Seahawks 21, Saints 17

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots (-7)

I really don't know what you can say about how the Colts played last week against Kansas City. There really aren't any words to describe it. All you can really say is that Andrew Luck is the real deal. He's been the big reason why the Colts have had the quick turnaround they've had. And Luck has to be drooling a little bit; the Patriots defense has been ravaged by injuries.

The Patriots do still have Aqub Talib in their secondary, and much of his job this week will be to contain T.Y. Hilton from doing T.Y. Hilton things. I doubt this defense will let Hilton get open deep like the Chiefs did on the game-winning touchdown, but they're probably going to have some matchup problems. Ultimately, I think the Colts might have a few as well. Nonetheless, I just have a feeling. I'm throwing this one out as my upset special.

Prediction: Colts 41, Patriots 38

Sunday Games

San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers (+1)

This game boasts two of the best defenses in the league. The Niner defense really impressed me in the win over Green Bay. But to suggest that this Niner team is now unquestionably the favorite out of the NFL is ludicrous. Carolina has been just as hot this season, if not hotter, than the Niners have been. The Niners also have to go on the road again, which maybe doesn't matter too much in the long run, but could still be a disadvantage.

I like what Riverboat Ron and company have been able to do this season. Cam Newton has really come into his own, and the defense of the Panthers has been amazing. San Francisco has momentum on its side, but really, they beat a pretty banged up team on a last second field goal. Kaepernick does all he can, but it's not enough.

Prediction: Panthers 27, 49ers 21

San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos (-9)

All week I've been hearing numbers about how crazy good Denver's offense has been all season, and how in 14 of their games they've gained at least 400 yards. The two games they didn't: both matchups with San Diego. The Chargers are just a nightmare matchup for Denver. I thought for sure Cincinnati would take care of business against them, but I was sorely mistaken. Meanwhile, I think the weather is supposed to be decent up in Denver, which should mean Peyton is back to being, well, Peyton.

Let's remember: last year, Manning was a Rahim Moore away from making yet another title game for the AFC. I don't think he's as bad in iffy weather as a lot of people discredit him for. This should be a great game, since it's a division tilt and San Diego has played Denver tight in both contests this season. The Chargers will make this a game. I just think there's too much Peyton here. Sorry, Phil, the Bolo tie phenomenon ends here.

Prediction: Broncos 31, Chargers 24

Records So Far
Spread: 143-116-1 (0-3-1 last week/playoffs)
Straight: 2-2