A week after Adam went on an all-time heater, he regressed to the mean. Adam, Joe, and I all evenly split our disputed games with each other, which I think might also be a first in contest history.
Interestingly enough, the entire group almost all matched scores for Week 3, with the exception of Jim who finished just a game back of everyone this week. But the entire group remains above .500 through three weeks, with Adam holding onto his three game lead that he built on the back of the aforementioned heater.
You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. Consensus picks came back to earth a little bit this week, though we remain above .500 there. We're a combined 5-8 as a group on hero picks to date, which is probably about on par with where we usually end up. Adam, for his part, is 2-1 so far including a split last week.
As we look ahead to the new week, Adam and I disagree on seven games, Joe and I on six, and the two of them on five out of 16. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-1.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. As much as I want to continue solidarity picks until January because Red is the new Purple in Division III football, the Seahawks looked too good last week. Yeah, it was the Saints, but still.
Adam: Seahawks. No real reasoning here other than I sense Seattle is having a better year than Arizona.
Joe: Seahawks.
Sunday Morning
Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5)
Lucas: Vikings. Caithfear Super Bowl na Steelers 9-8 a choinneáil slán. Ní mise a dhéanann na rialacha.
Adam: Vikings. Just playing the odds. Red Hair Power.
Joe: Vikings.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons (+2.5)
Lucas: Commanders. If your Penix is broken, you may be entitled to significant financial compensation.
Joe: Commanders.
New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills (-15.5)
Lucas: Bills. I'll be honest: this line scares me a little bit. But then I remember that the Saints got monkey stomped in Seattle and I feel better.
Adam: Saints. I mean, come on. 15.5 pts? I get it; Saints suck and the Bills are, well, good. But 15.5! It’s a bit too high for me.
Joe: Bills.
Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions (-8.5)
Lucas: Browns. Maybe this is me huffing copium. But look at Cleveland's defensive stats through three weeks and tell me this isn't an underrated team.
| Tot | Tot | Tot | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Rush | Rush | Rush | Rush | Rush | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | PF | Yds | Ply | Y/P | TO | FL | 1stD | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | NY/A | 1stD | Att | Yds | TD | Y/A | 1stD |
| Opp. Stats | 68 | 613 | 163 | 3.8 | 1 | 0 | 39 | 51 | 77 | 441 | 6 | 1 | 5.0 | 25 | 75 | 172 | 1 | 2.3 | 9 |
| Lg Rank Defense | 18 | 1 | 27 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Lucas note: *points back at the chart with the context that those numbers include games against the Bengals with Burrow, Ravens, and the Packers, all good offenses*
Joe: Browns.
Carolina Panthers @ New England Patriots (-4.5)
Lucas: Panthers. This is purely a points pick, and feels like it's in the perfect range for such.
Adam: Patriots. This is my points survivor pick. I like New England to win even with the big win last week by the Panthers.
Joe: Patriots.
Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Giants (+5.5)
Lucas: Chargers. Godspeed, Jaxson Dart.
Adam: Chargers. Welcome to the NFL, Mr. Dart. “Giants country, I’m benched”
Joe: Chargers.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. This is another one where the line is close enough that I could go either way, but I'll take the points and the slight leeway.
Adam: Buccaneers. Here is a game between two teams that both had late game field goal-related heroics. I like this game and it will be close so I’ll take those points with the home team.
Joe: Eagles.
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (-6.5)
Lucas: Titans. Taking the points again because I don't trust the Strouds.
Adam: Titans. Seems like a logical spot for Tennessee to jump up and surprise a little.
Joe: Titans.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)
Lucas: Colts. BAH GAWD THAT'S DANIEL JONES' MUSIC!
Joe: Rams.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. At this point the Niners are an all time What If franchise for the last several years. They just cannot stay healthy. Thinking about it though... you know what the Flashpoint for all of this may have been? When they cut a Gagliardi winning, national champion quarterback.
Adam: Jaguars. Sunshine. Plus the Niners are hurting.
Joe: 49ers.
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. Don't know how long it's been since the Chiefs were last home underdogs, though only by a field goal makes sense. But again: I've seen this movie a million times with the Ravens and I do not trust them.
Adam: Ravens. Baltimore got embarrassed at home by the Lions. And now they fly into KC and lose nevermore. Hehe.
Joe: Ravens.
Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)
Lucas: Bears. Oh good, we gave them confidence. Thanks, Cowboys.
Adam: Bears. That’s it, I’m back. I’ll run through walls I’m so excited. Bear Down.
Lucas note: *sigh*
Joe: Bears.
Sunday Night
Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys (+6.5)
Lucas: Packers. The last time the Packers lost a Week 3 game on the road on a walk-off field goal after committing approximately 328 penalties for 4,786 yards, they went on to win the Super Bowl. Just saying. Also, this game is at Lambeau Field South where Micah Parsons gets to go home for an Eff You to Jerrah. Come on.
Adam: Packers. Could be interesting, but I think Green Bay wakes up from their sleepwalking last week and crushes last week's flop.
Joe: Packers.
Monday Night
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
Lucas: Dolphins.
Joe: Jets.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos (-7.5)
Lucas: Broncos. Remember that Denver was a dumb leverage penalty away from being 2-1. Also I'm not getting burned by Jake Browning again.
Adam: Bengals. Don’t like this line, because it can go both ways. But I’ll take the half point extra and say a prayer with Cincy.
Joe: Broncos.
Records So Far
Lucas: 28-20 (9-7 last week)
Adam: 31-17 (9-7 last week)
Joe: 26-22 (9-7 last week)
Geoffrey: 26-22 (9-7 last week)
Jim: 27-21 (8-8 last week)
Tom: 25-23 (9-7 last week)
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