I'm still taking people who want to pick games against the spread this NFL season in the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. Follow the link above if you want to join in. It's free, and you can see if you're smarter (or luckier, since a lot of this is a crapshoot) than someone who thinks he knows a ton about sports.
With that out of the way, let's get to the preview. Today, we look at the NFC South.
Common opponents on schedule: NFC North, AFC North
2013: 11-5 (2nd), lost in NFC Divisional Round
Somehow this defense gave up the second fewest passing yards per game in the league last season, and they arguably only got better, adding Jairus Byrd at safety and getting a little veteran depth with Champ Bailey at corner. They'll be good again this year probably, but the bigger threat is obviously this offense. A list of the best receivers in the NFL likely won't have Marques Colston, Kenny Stills or Robert Meachem too close to the top, the fact that they play with Drew Brees elevates them another level. Overall, this is a division that always seems to avoid repeat winners, so I'm picking the Saints to reclaim their throne this year.
2014 Prediction: 11-5
2013: 12-4 (1st), lost in NFC Divisional Round
This team had a reversal of fortune in close games thanks to the timely arrival of Riverboat Ron. I figure some regression to the mean will happen this year. The defense remains solid, especially with Luke Kuechly at the center of it all. The problem here this year though will likely be on offense. Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart aren't getting any younger, and as much as Cam Newton is turning into a really good quarterback, he really doesn't have anyone to throw to with Steve Smith's departure. This team will still be pretty good overall, but not like last year.
2014 Prediction: 9-7
2013: 4-12 (T-3rd), missed playoffs
The Falcons were arguably the unluckiest team in the NFL last year. Roddy White and Julio Jones combined for 104 catches and 14 missed games in 2013 (Jones missed the final 11 games of the year). Both should be back this season to help Matt Ryan out, but where he really needs help is the offensive line. Ryan got killed back there last year (sacked 44 times), and has already lost left tackle Sam Baker for the year. On the other side, this group was gashed by opposing running games all year. While they added some depth on defense this year, it's hard to say how much they'll improve. With better luck, they'll improve on a bad 2013.
2014 Prediction: 7-9
2013: 4-12 (T-3rd), missed playoffs
Bad news this year: I can't make fun of Greg Schiano. Good news this year: I can make fun of Lovie Smith again. Either Josh McCown or Mike Glennon will start at quarterback, which should improve the worst passing attack of 2013. Defensively, this was an average squad last year. Lovie's presence will almost certainly improve that, though this squad isn't quite the caliber of what he had back during his tenure with the Bears. Tampa is on the way back up, but in this division, I'm not sure how good they'll be.
2014 Prediction: 5-11
Wednesday we head east... or a little north I guess, when you look at the geography. The AFC East is next, following tomorrow's look at the opening week of college football.
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