2017 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Official Bracket

And so after 14 weeks, it has all come down to this. The College Football Playoff field is set, but I needed an extra day with commitments yesterday to process all of the happenings from Championship Saturday and build the field for the Death to the BCS Playoffs.


I'm okay with what the College Football Playoff has done, because it allows for more settling things on the field than the old BCS did. That's why Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan wrote the pictured book tearing the BCS to shreds and offering up their solution, which I've adopted as my hope for the eventual playoff. This is a 16 team field where every conference champion makes it, thus making the regular season more meaningful for more teams and allowing access to all teams. We then fill the field with six at large teams, which for some may seem like a lot, but I think it's a fair number and it makes the bracket even.

So how are these teams decided? Wetzel, Peter, and Passan recommended a selection committee, but in its absence I took on that role singlehandedly, though I didn't do so alone. I use a number of metrics, which are explained to some degree in every mock bracket post but gone into greater detail back in my season introduction post. For your reference, my NCSS and Playoff Points scores can be found here, while the computer rankings can be found here, here, and here.

Armed with this information, and seeing all ten automatic bids awarded, I can build out the playoff field. In the rankings below I'll have each team's record and their relevant scores and rankings. As a new feature, after showing where each team was seeded last week, I will also share how many times each team has made the playoffs before. You can find a full archive of that, along with postseason records by team, conference, and seed, here.

And so, without further ado, here is the official field for the 2017 Death to the BCS Playoffs!

1. Clemson (12-1, ACC Champion)- NCSS: 5, PP1: 70, PP2: 32.00, aPP: 62; SAG: 2, ROTH: 1, AMSTS: 2 (LW: 2; 3rd appearance, 3rd consecutive)
2. Georgia (12-1, SEC Champion)- NCSS: 5, PP1: 65, PP2: 28.82, aPP: 63; SAG: 3, ROTH: 2, AMSTS: 3 (LW: 5; 2nd apperance, 1st since 2012)
3. Oklahoma (12-1, Big 12 Champion)- NCSS: 5, PP1: 62, PP2: 24.00, aPP: 57; SAG: 5, ROTH: 4, AMSTS: 7 (LW: 6; 5th appearance, 3rd consecutive)
4. Alabama (11-1, At Large)- NCSS: 3, PP1: 65, PP2: 25.64, aPP: 63; SAG: 1, ROTH: 8, AMSTS: 4 (LW: 4; 6th appearance, 6th consecutive)
5. Ohio State (11-2, Big Ten Champion)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 59, PP2: 26.60, aPP: 53; SAG: 4, ROTH: 6, AMSTS: 5 (LW: 9; 5th appearance, 5th consecutive)
6. Wisconsin (12-1, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 69, PP2: 25.67, aPP: 69; SAG: 7, ROTH: 5, AMSTS: 6 (LW: 1; 3rd appearance, 2nd consecutive)
7. UCF (12-0, American Athletic Champion)- NCSS: 3, PP1: 60, PP2: 20.82, aPP: 60; SAG: 16, ROTH: 3, AMSTS: 1 (LW: 7; 2nd apperance, 1st since 2013)
8. Auburn (10-3, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 60, PP2: 29.60, aPP: 56; SAG: 8, ROTH: 7, AMSTS: 9 (LW: 3; 2nd appearance, 1st since 2013)
9. Miami (Florida) (10-2, At Large)- NCSS: 1, PP1: 58, PP2: 28.00, aPP: 51; SAG: 15, ROTH: 11, AMSTS: 12 (LW: 8; 1st appearance)
10. Notre Dame (9-3, At Large)- NCSS: 26, PP1: 61, PP2: 35.22, aPP: 56; SAG: 10, ROTH: 10, AMSTS: 10 (LW: NR; 3rd appearance, 1st since 2015)
11. USC (11-2, Pac 12 Champion)- NCSS: 5, PP1: 58, PP2: 25.60, aPP: 52; SAG: 13, ROTH: 12, AMSTS: 13 (LW: 10; 2nd apperance, 2nd consecutive)
12. Stanford (9-4, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 52, PP2: 29.11, aPP: 45; SAG: 11, ROTH: 17, AMSTS: 16 (LW: 12; 4th appearance, 1st since 2015)
13. Boise State (10-3, Mountain West Champion)- NCSS: 8, PP1: 55, PP2: 22.22, aPP: 43; SAG: 36, ROTH: 47, AMSTS: 25 (LW: NR; 3rd apperance, 1st since 2014)
14. Toledo (11-2, MAC Champion)- NCSS: 5, PP1: 43, PP2: 15.50, aPP: 38; SAG: 50, ROTH: 48, AMSTS: 19 (LW: 14; 1st apperance)
15. Florida Atlantic (10-3, Conference USA Champion)- NCSS: 5, PP1: 48, PP2: 19.33, aPP: 37; SAG: 57, ROTH: 57, AMSTS: 26 (LW: 13; 1st apperance)
16. Troy (10-2, Sun Belt Champion)-  NCSS: 5, PP1: 46, PP2: 15.80, aPP: 35; SAG: 72, ROTH: 74, AMSTS: 35 (LW: 16; 1st appearance)

Out of the playoffs: TCU (11), Fresno State (15)

To view the official bracket, click here.

Photo by Stephen M. Dowell (Orlando Sentinel)

I'm going to go in order of how I built out this bracket. Nine teams won their conference championship games over the weekend: UCF, Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Florida Atlantic, Toledo, Boise State, USC, and Georgia. Those nine all received automatic bids along with Troy, who won their last Sun Belt game and got the tiebreaker to go their way. With those ten teams locked in, I had to fill the remaining six spots. To do that, I basically take a pool of the top remaining team in each conference, and pick one until the six spots are filled. It's a similar process to how the NCAA selects its Division III football playoffs, though I reserve the right to dip down a little bit (so effectively, teams aren't "blocked").

1. The reason I put that notice about teams being "blocked" is that, arguably, the best team left on the board at this point is Alabama. Their 65 PP1 are tied for third most and 63 aPP are tied for second most, and when you combine the computer rankings into this, the Crimson Tide are the first team off the board, leapfrogging Auburn out of the SEC.
2. Wisconsin is my next team to come off the board. Even though they lost out on their perfect season, their 69 PP1 are the second most in the country, and that total is also tops in aPP (remember, conference championship games don't count towards Playoff Points). Of the remaining teams on the board, they have the best aggregate computer rankings. This was a fairly easy choice.
3. I go back to the SEC with this pick and grab Auburn. The Tigers beat Alabama head to head, but have three losses including the SEC title game, though they have more impressive wins despite a lower Playoff Point total (tied for 7th in both PP1 and aPP). The fact that they have the next-best aggregate computer rankings put them in the field.
4. The fourth spot was where I started to struggle. Ultimately, I couldn't ignore the resume of Miami (Florida), who ranked tied for 11th in PP1 and 12th in aPP, and have among the best computer rankings of teams remaining, except for Notre Dame, who they beat head to head.
5. Speaking of them, Notre Dame sneaks back into the playoffs after being out last week. Normally, I'm not crazy about a three loss team being in, but they finished 6th in PP1, 1st in PP2, and 7th in aPP, while every computer ranking had them tenth. A win over a playoff team in USC, despite losses to two other teams already in the field in Georgia and Miami, is enough to get them in.
6. This last spot was a very difficult one. Washington and Stanford were tied in PP1, with the Cardinal holds a big edge in PP2 and a slight one in aPP. The computers favor Washington, but Stanford has a head to head win and a win against a playoff team, something none of my other candidates have. Stanford gets the 16th and final berth.

Photo by Ron Jenkins (Getty Images)

If I go with my first teams out, TCU is definitely the one right on the outside looking in. Their 48 PP1 was one of the highest of teams left on the board, and they had the advantage of one fewer loss, but with an extra win over Stanford, they still had fewer points than the Cardinal, and the slight computer edge for the Horned Frogs wasn't enough, not when TCU had no wins over playoff teams. Washington was the next team out, with the aforementioned extra win, more Playoff Points, and higher computer rankings, but that head to head Stanford win meant something. Memphis was my third team out, and at 10-2 they had a decent argument, but not the Playoff Points to make up for it.

Now with that out of the way, let's get to the seeding. Wisconsin losing threw a major monkey wrench into everything. I do want to note here though that, in addition to the aforementioned factors like Playoff Points, computer rankings, and records against other playoff teams, I'm also factoring in regular season schedules in the sense that I will have no first round rematches, and will do my best to avoid second round rematches as well. Anything in the semis or beyond I'm okay with.

Photo by Donny Knight (donnyknightphotography.smugmug.com)

Looking at the metrics now, Clemson is clearly the best team on the board, so they get the top overall seed. Georgia isn't terribly far behind them, so they end up with the #2 seed. This means that the road to Pasadena and the national championship runs through Clemson, South Carolina and Athens, Georgia. Oklahoma has fewer Playoff Points than some of the other at large teams and aren't as good according to the computers as Alabama, but they're 1-0 against playoff teams, have two other wins against a TCU team that just missed out, and edge out Ohio State in Playoff Points despite the Buckeyes having a one point edge in the computer aggregates. The Sooners get the #3 seed. The #4 seed is tough, but I keep coming back to Alabama. I had told friends that I wasn't crazy about them being #4, but the more I look at it the more I can't argue it. Ohio State is their toughest competitor for that spot, but the Buckeyes have two losses, and the Tide have more Playoff Points and better computer rankings. Alabama gets the second home game.

Photo by James King II (The Lantern)

The next four teams will all host on the opening weekend as well, but not beyond that barring any upsets among the top four seeds. Ohio State settles into that #5 seed with the second-most PP1 and aPP of the remaining auto bid teams and the best remaining computer rankings. Wisconsin's fall from the top last week ends at the #6 seed. They still won 12 games this year, have the second most PP1 and most aPP of anyone in the field, and their lone loss came to the #5 seed. I battled back and forth with whether to put UCF or Auburn as my #7 seed. Auburn has equal PP1 and only slightly worse computer rankings while also boasting a pair of wins over playoff teams. But UCF has the almighty zero in the loss column on its side. That, combined with the headache of trying to avoid second round rematches, led to me ultimately keeping UCF in at #7 where they've been for a while, with Auburn falling to #8 and getting the final home game.

Photo by John Hefti (USA TODAY Sports)

Part of the reason I did this is that I'd rather have an Auburn-Clemson II than an Auburn-Georgia III, and I can put a better team in at #9 than I would at #10, which would lessen the chance of Auburn-Clemson II. Sticking to the order in which I picked at large teams, Miami settles into the #9 seed. They get the nod in seeding as they did in at large selections over Notre Dame, who follows right behind them as the #10 seed and will head down to UCF. The drawback is the possibility of a second Georgia-Notre Dame matchup, but in similar fashion to Auburn-Clemson II, that game was played in Week 2, and in both cases the winners of the regular season matchup would get home field. I don't think I can avoid this, not with USC and Stanford as my remaining Power Five teams in the field. USC has a pair of wins over Stanford, and their head to head loss to Notre Dame means it makes sense to put them at #11. The problem with Stanford is the four losses; I've never put a four loss at large team into the field, so it's tempting to really gut their seeding. However, by every metric they beat out those last four conference champions. Boise State has an argument with a win over a playoff team and more playoff points, but the computers drastically favor Stanford, and on a neutral field I'd probably take Stanford over the Broncos anyway. Stanford settles into the #12 seed.

Photo by Darin Oswald (Idaho Statesman)

Boise State has the best resume of the four remaining teams and gets the #13 seed as a result. It gets a little harder after that, though. Toledo has the edge in computer rankings, but the fewest PP1. Florida Atlantic leads in PP1 and is only one point back in aPP of Toledo with one fewer regular season win than the other two teams. Troy has the worst computer rankings of any playoff team and also has the worst loss (South Alabama), but they also have the best win (at LSU) of the three remaining teams. Ultimately, I think with Toledo having the highest aPP of the three and the best computer rankings, they get the #14 seed, and we avoid any potential rematches at the bottom. Part of me wants to reward Troy for that LSU win, but all metrics favor Florida Atlantic. The Owls get the #15 seed, and Troy will have to fall in at the end.

The Death to the BCS Playoffs are set to kick off on Saturday, December 16th. I'll be back on the 17th with a look at the results from that opening round! To the 16 teams who will compete for a virtual crown that arguably means more than the title the College Football Playoff will hand out (even though the top four teams are the same): good luck!