Dear god we all need to be scared. Jen is 4pts up on everyone.Adam won a week for the first time in a long time, grabbing six of our eight disputed games as regression to the mean hit me hard. That left an opening at the top, which Jen roared into as she has her first lead of the season. Considering that she knows next to nothing about football and as far as I know has just been picking at absolute random for 15 weeks... yeah, we definitely need to be scared.
You can view the standings with confirmation of Jen being four games up on the nearest competitor here, bearing in mind that a picking error on ESPN gave Adam one more point than he should have. You can view the correct standings as well as how we've all picked in relation to each other here.
Adam's win has him, at least theoretically, within striking distance of me with two weeks to play, though it would take weeks like this past one for him to vault past me. This week, we disagree on just five games out of 16. This means that I have clinched the column title over Adam (even year magic!), though the group championship is still up for grabs.
From all of us at Confessions of a Sportscaster, we wish you a Merry Christmas! Let's get to the picks!
Saturday Afternoon
Washington Redskins @ Tennessee Titans (-10.5)
Lucas: Redskins. I'm sorry, the Titans should not be double digit favorites, even at home, against anyone.
Adam: Redskins. Late season game which is a must win for the Skins if they want any chance of a playoff spot, not that they deserve it, but hey.
Saturday Night
Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5)
Lucas: Chargers. SOMEONE GET ME PHILIP RIVERS' BOLO TIE FROM FOUR YEARS AGO, STAT!
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
Lucas: Falcons. For full disclosure, when I originally went through the lines I went with the Panthers and changed this Wednesday night right before entering Adam's picks (though I didn't look at what he picked before I did so, and based on the numbers it didn't matter). But Carolina's in full on free fall, Cam Newton is out for the rest of the year, and Eric Reid has defied 1-in-588 odds since signing with the Panthers.
Lucas note: To be fair, the math dictates that there are going to be plenty of players who will get picked for testing a handful of times each year. But this is too convenient and too mathematically improbable to be a coincidence.Number 7... ”Random” pic.twitter.com/6HkxXCZhQP— Eric Reid (@E_Reid35) December 18, 2018
Adam: Falcons. Cam is out for the season! Season over the for the Panthers.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-12.5)
Lucas: Bills. Yeah, I'm overreacting to the Patriots losing in Pittsburgh this past week, but the Bills have a really good defense and Brady is looking his age. I'll take the points here and look forward to the inevitable 50-burger that will have all the sportsyaks talking into January.
Adam: Bills. This is a pure "I don't like lines over 10 points" play. This game seems more like a -8.5 to -9.5 game, but -12.5? I'll take the points.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (-6.5)
Lucas: Browns. I can't remember the last time the Browns were touchdown favorites over anybody... or if they've ever even been a touchdown favorite. What a world.
Adam: Browns. when was the last time the browns were favored by almost a TD in any game in the past... oh, 3-4 years?! With Mayfield making a strong case for Rookie of the Year, I like the home team.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. I don't want to overreact to what I thought was an outstanding defense getting curbstomped by the Colts. I think they rebound this week to set up a playoff berth and the inevitable January choke job.
Adam: Buccaneers. No way this game is a touchdown-plus game. This contest will be won in the waning moments on a field goal... or maybe a missed field goal (whaaaaaa?) The Cowgirls will wish they had Bailey back and they will see their playoff chances slide.
Lucas note: I feel like there have been a ton of missed crucial field goals this season, but on the whole NFL kickers are making 84.6 percent of their field goals in 2018, continuing the upward trend over the history of the NFL. That said, Dallas' Brett Maher is 24th in the NFL in field goal percentage among qualified kickers in 2018; Dan Bailey, by comparison, is 31st.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (+5.5)
Lucas: Vikings. Thank God for the Lions, I say a week before the Lions inevitably find a way to win in Green Bay and force the Packers into last place in the NFC North.
Adam: Vikings. A virtual must-win for Minnesota with playoff implications abound. I am sure they will not want to face Chicago in a must-win for a playoff spot.
Lucas note: The Vikings are in with a win plus a couple other results going their way this week. Getting the win though would make things a lot easier.
Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets (-0.5)
Lucas: Packers. I mentioned it after the Seattle game, but Rodgers is off this year. We saw it again in Chicago this past week. Fortunately, this should be a winnable road game, if there is such a thing for the Pack...
Adam: Jets. How the mighty have fallen... a virtual pick'em in a game that in any of the prior five seasons would have been a slam dunk.
Lucas note: I miss those days.
New York Giants @ Indianapolis Colts (-9.5)
Lucas: Giants. Yeah, the Colts just took Dallas behind the woodshed, but I don't know that they should be double digit favorites, even against a Giants team that isn't great. I still think the Colts win, but we have to beware the Eli backdoor cover.
Adam: Giants. I know what the Colts did to the Cowgirls last week, but I also know how the G-Men played the Bears. I'll roll the dice and take the points.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins (-4.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. If any road team can go into Miami and survive the home field advantage the weather provides, it's Jacksonville. But I don't think they can survive the talent gap.
Adam: Dolphins. it is sufficient to say the Jags are not who we thought they were going to be at the start of the season.
Lucas note: *checks preseason preview* *winces*
Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles (-0.5)
Lucas: Eagles. Uh oh, Philly comin'...
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers (+3.5)
Lucas: Bears. I can't believe I only have to lay three and a half on... sigh... the new Kings of the North.
Lucas note: I tip my hat. Well played, Bears, and good luck in the postseason.Kings of the North.#DaBears pic.twitter.com/PgNDDI8U96— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) December 17, 2018
Adam: Bears. The Biscuit and team get set up for the playoff run.
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (+14.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. Losing in Chicago is understandable. Losing on Sunday Night at home to a struggling Eagles team with Nick Foles back under center? Not as understandable. To then expect them to be able to turn it back on, even against a bad Cardinals team, isn't the best proposition. Taking my two touchdowns and running.
Adam: Cardinals. Taking the points here. The Rams have seemed off and the Cards randomly have good games. Going there... back door Arizona win... What?!?!?!?!?!?!?! Regardless of that possibility, I am going to say this will be a much more competitive game than people expect.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints (-6.5)
Lucas: Steelers. Oh God, New England woke up the Yinzers. Beware the salt and NSFW language.
Adam: Saints. New Orleans has been and will continue to be near unbeatable at home.*YINZER MODE ACTIVATED*— Schlasser (@UrinatingTree) December 17, 2018
OHMYGODTHEYDIDITTHEYBEATTHEFUCKINGCHEATRIOTSTHESTILLERSAREGOINGTOTHESUPERBOWLIDONTWANNAHEARADAMNWORDABOUTREFBALLTHESTILLERSBEATTHEIRBOOGEYMANSIXMOTHERFUCKINGRINGSKISSTHEMBITCHESPITTSBURGHSGOINGTOTHESUPERBOWLLOMBARDISCOMINGTOUS!!!!!!!!
Sunday Night
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. I know it's a Sunday night, not a Monday night, but my BS sensors are going off with this matchup. Beware more shady s*** happening.
Adam: Chiefs. KC comes back after a tough loss and runs away with this one.
Monday Night
Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders (+2.5)
Lucas: Broncos. Denver's just better and I think Oakland has used up all its good karma for the year, especially since they've basically made Colin Kaepernick's collusion case against the NFL.
Adam: Raiders. I am calling it now: Peterman for 300 yards, 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. Don't worry, I'm not smoking what they are... but seriously, I don't think there is a chance he ever touches the field.Colin Kaepernick just needs to show this tweet and Peterman’s stats in court and he’ll win his case https://t.co/HeJ4gl5R83— Dylan Connolly (DConn) (@DCONN24) December 19, 2018
Records So Far
Lucas: 112-112 (4-12 last week)
Adam: 89-135 (8-8 last week)
Geoffrey: 100-124 (12-4 last week)
Joe: 111-113 (10-6 last week)
Aiden: 102-122 (7-9 last week)
Kristen: 114-110 (8-8 last week)
Jen: 118-106 (13-3 last week)
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