Monday, August 13, 2018

2018 NFL Tournament of Champions: Elimination Stage Round 2

In May, I started this year's big project: another NFL Tournament of Champions. We grabbed the 52 Super Bowl champions and put them into a free for all. Coming into this past weekend, we were down to 16 teams.

The top two teams from each group during the 13 weeks of round robin play all got a bye last week as the teams that finished anywhere from third to sixth got to fight to advance to this stage. Four upsets and four chalk matchups later, we come to the second round.

Once again, seeding based on finish in group play is determining home field advantage. When we get to the point where same seeds may face off, record becomes the first tiebreaker, followed by point differential. But that's not until the semifinals in a couple weeks.

Weather conditions from the host cities over the weekend is taken into account. You can view scores here, and the updated bracket will be posted below as well. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get to it!


Saturday

@ (2) '68 NYJ 31, (6) '90 NYG 19
Photo from Associated Press (photographer uncredited)
The second-seeded Jets jumped out to a huge early lead, forcing a three and out to open the game and following it up with a five play, 71 yard drive with a 37 yard Matt Snell run helping set up a 40 yard touchdown pass from Joe Namath to George Sauer four and a half minutes in. Another Giant three and out led to a lengthier Jet drive, needing 12 plays to go 62 yards, but Namath found Sauer again, this time from 11 yards out for a 14-0 lead late in the first quarter. Rodney Hampton's long run broke the seal for the Giants and set up a Raul Allegre 42 yard field goal early in the second quarter. The Jets nearly cost themselves with a fumble ending their next drive, and almost lost one on their next drive, but they recovered, and six plays later Namath found Don Maynard for a 23 yard touchdown and a 21-3 edge. Allegre ended the half with a 28 yard field goal, then pulled his team within 12 with a 23 yarder midway through the third quarter. The Giants pulled within nine midway through the fourth quarter with another Allegre field goal, but the Jets put the game out of reach with a 25 yard touchdown from Namath to Snell. The Giants would get a late touchdown to make it close, but failed the onside kick and Namath kneeled it out. He had a monster game, completing 17 of 23 passes for 251 yards and four touchdowns. Snell had 13 carries for 84 yards, and George Sauer finished the day with four catches for 101 yards and two scores. Phill Simms completed 14 of 22 passes for 176 yards to lead the Giants, and David Meggett had 66 yards rushing on three carries, while the Jets held Rodney Hampton to 37 yards on eight carries (one for 31), and Ottis Anderson had 16 carries for just 29 yards.

(3) '16 NE 13, @ (2) '02 TB 6
Photo by Kevin Dietsch (UPI)
The Patriots pull the upset thanks largely to the game's opening drive. A 30 yard LeGarrette Blount run on the third play of the game got the Pats in business, and five plays later Julian Edelman hauled a three yard Tom Brady strike to open the scoring five minutes in. The Bucs would answer late in the frame with a 50 yard Martin Gramatica field goal, and added a 31 yarder midway through the third quarter. But that was as close as the Buccaneers would get, as they punted twice from near midfield before the half, and a Rob Ninkovich interception on the opening drive of the second half led to a 48 yard Stephen Gostkowski field goal to make it a four point game again. The Bucs would get a couple more changes, recovering a Martellus Bennett fumble deep in their territory midway through the fourth quarter, but they went three and out, punting with about six minutes to go, and never touched the ball again as the Patriots ran out the clock, with Blount moving the chains on a third and 12 with under two minutes to go. Gostkowski hit an unnecessary field goal at the final gun for the final margin. Brady struggled a bit, completing just 11 of 20 passes, but had 156 yards passing and a touchdown. Blount ran 18 times for 91 yards, and Edelman finished with four catches for 59 yards and a score. Brad Johnson went 14-21 for 172 yards and a pick for Tampa, while Michael Pittman and Mike Alstott combined for 65 yards rushing on 25 carries.

@ (2) '00 BAL 13, (6) '08 PIT 9
Neither offense mustered much in the first 15 minutes, with the Steelers winning the field position battle thanks in part to a Troy Polamalu interception midway through the frame, but it was Baltimore who got on the board first, opening the second quarter with a seven yard Jamal Lewis touchdown run to cap an eight play, 58 yard drive. Ben Roethlisberger went to work on the next drive, completing his only two passes for 36 yards, setting up a 35 yard Jeff Reed field goal. The Ravens got those points back late in the half on a 43 yard Matt Stover field goal thanks to a nice Priest Holmes run and a couple lengthy completions by Tony Banks. Roethlisberger was picked on a Hail Mary at the end of the half to keep it a 10-3 Raven lead. Pittsburgh forayed into Baltimore territory on their first drive of the second half thanks to a 34 yard Roethlisberger to Santonio Holmes connection, but the Steelers turned it over on downs, and two Baltimore drives later Stover hit a 26 yard field goal thanks in part to a 30 yard Lewis run. The Steelers got those point back early in the fourth quarter on a 22 yard Reed kick, then after a three and out, he hit from 50 to pull Pittsburgh within four. Baltimore couldn't extend their lead, leaving Big Ben to work on a clutch drive with just under three minutes to play. He got first and goal from the eight, but managed just three yards from there, and Rob Burnett sealed the game with a fourth down sack. Jamal Lewis had just 54 yards rushing on 17 carries while Tony Banks was not particularly good, completing just eight of 24 passes for 113 yards and a pick. But Ben Roethlisberger wasn't a whole lot better, going 19-32 for 298 yards and an interception, though Nate Washington had four catches for 108 yards. Willie Parker was awful, getting just 29 yards on 23 carries while Mewelde Moore had 23 yards on 11 carries for Pittsburgh.

@ (2) '92 DAL 24, (3) '85 CHI 3
Photo by Tim Sharp (AP)
Chicago cost itself early in this on. Matt Suhey fumbled on the game's opening play, and after a 34 yard Emmitt Smith run, Troy Aikman hit Michael Irvin for a four yard touchdown less than two minutes in. The Bears went three and out, and Dallas went right back to work, marching 74 yards in ten plays capped by a three yard strike from Aikman to Irvin for a 14-0 lead. That lead held into the half as the Bears couldn't get anything going except a late first half drive where they punted on fourth and four from the Dallas 37. The Cowboys put the game away early in the third quarter, with backup Steve Beuerlein finding Irvin for 28 yards to open the half, followed by a 25 yard Smith run, all to set up a 17 yard strike from Beuerlein to Daryl Johnston about three minutes into the third. The Bears would get their lone points on the ensuing drive on a 25 yard Kevin Butler field goal. They couldn't take advantage of an Aikman interception early in the fourth, and Jim McMahon would throw a late interception to ultimately seal the deal, though Lin Elliott hit an unnecessary 43 yard field goal at the final gun. Aikman finished 15 of 27 for 112 yards, two touchdowns, and a pick, while backup Steve Beuerlein went a perfect three for three for 48 yards and the other score. Michael Irvin had just four catches for 40 yards, but two of those went for touchdowns, while Emmitt Smith finished with 157 all purpose yards for the Cowboys. Jim McMahon went 15 of 29 for 128 yards and a pick for the Bears, while Walter Payton was held to 48 yards on 21 carries.

Sunday

@ (1) '99 STL 23, (4) '71 DAL 8
Photo by L.G. Patterson (AP)
The Greatest Show on Turf returns to the quarterfinals with a dominant performance at home. The Cowboys went three and out to open the game, and Kurt Warner and company went to work, using a 36 yard pass to Isaac Bruce to eventually set up a five touchdown connection between the two. The Cowboys would punt from the St. Louis 39 on their next drive, and after Mike Clark missed a 48 yard field goal, the Rams got back to work to set up a 32 yard Jeff Wilkins kick for a 10-0 lead. Duane Thomas got the Cowboys back into scoring range, but Clark missed from 47, and the Rams tacked on when Marshall Faulk scored from four yards out for a 17-0 halftime edge, aided by Clark missing from 44 as the half expired. With nine points left on the field, the Rams put the game away early in the third quarter when Wilkins hit from 37 to go up 20. Not even a Faulk fumble late in the quarter helped, as the Cowboys punted from Ram territory on the ensuing drive. Wilkins would hit from 37 after a Dallas turnover on downs, though the Cowboys did avoid the shutout with a late 49 yard Thomas touchdown run plus a two point conversion. But the Rams ran out the clock to advance. Faulk had just 52 yards rushing on 19 carries, but scored once and added three catches for 19 yards, Kurt Warner finished the day 20 of 25 for 247 yards and a score, with Torry Holt leading the way with four grabs for 81 yards for St. Louis. Roger Staubach completed just eight of 15 passes for 61 yards, though Thomas had a good day with 131 yards on 15 carries with that touchdown.

@ (1) '96 GB 39, (5) '15 DEN 0
Photo by Andy Manis (AP)
After shutting out the Raiders last week, the Broncos have the favor returned by the top overall seed. The Packers absolutely dominated this one from the get go, forcing a punt on the opening drive and only needing seven plays to go 60 yards to open the scoring as Dorsey Levens ran one in from eight yards out. It was nearly worse as the Packers blocked a Denver punt late in the first, but Aqib Talib picked off Brett Favre three plays later. Green Bay's defense did enough otherwise to help set up a 35 yard Chris Jacke field goal late in the half, and the Packers took that 10-0 lead into the locker room. The floodgates opened after intermission, with Favre opening the second half with an 80 yard touchdown pass to Antonio Freeman. Peyton Manning was picked off by Craig Newsome midway through the third and the Packers turned it into a 36 yard Jacke field goal. Things compounded when C.J. Anderson fumbled three plays later, and another three plays after that William Henderson got on the board with an eight yard touchdown run. The Packers' defense even got in on it with a Shannon Clavelle sack for a safety late in the quarter. Green Bay's offense all but finished it off early in the fourth when Favre hit Don Beebe for a one yard touchdown. Denver would turn it over on downs twice, with the Packers getting one more field goal after the second one. Favre was efficient despite the one pick, completing 16 of 20 passes for 242 yards and two scores, including five completions for 107 yards and a touchdown. Dorsey Levens had 58 yards on 12 carries, while Edgar Bennett added 36 yards on 19 touchdes. Manning was awful for the Broncos, completing just six of 21 passes for 67 yards and an interception. Ronnie Hillman led Denver's ground attack with 54 yards on 13 carries, while C.J. Anderson ran nine times for 43 yards with a lost fumble.

(5) '93 DAL 27, @ (1) '79 PIT 23
Photo by Paul Buck (Getty Images)
After making the semifinals in 2014, the '79 Steelers are one and done despite the bye. The Steelers were actually in decent shape in the opening quarter, taking over eight minutes off the clock with an opening drive capped by a 25 yard Matt Bahr field goal. But the Cowboys had a quick response, needing just four plays to grab the lead with Emmitt Smith doing almost all the damage, including the 46 yard catch and run for a touchdown. Pittsburgh answered swiftly though, needing just six plays and under two and a half minutes to retake the lead as Terry Bradshaw found Lynn Swann for a 36 yard touchdown and a 10-7 advantage. Pittsburgh would turn it over on downs at the Dallas 34 midway through the second quarter, and the Steelers took advantage, tying the game on a 25 yard Eddie Murray field goal with two minutes to go. The Steelers punted, and Dallas went bac k to work with a couple long plays to set up a 31 yard Murray field goal for a 13-10 Dallas lead going into the break. The teams traded long touchdowns early in the third, with the Steelers retaking the lead first on a 32 yard touchdown pass from Bradshaw to Franco Harris, but Dallas answered immediately with Troy Aikman finding Jay Novacek short, and he broke free for a 73 yard touchdown catch and run to negate it. The Steelers went right back to work though, tying the game on the ensuing drive with a 36 yard Bahr field goal. Early in the fourth after a monster punt return, the Cowboys retook the lead when Aikman hit Michael Irvin for a 17 yard touchdown. The Steelers seemed poised to tie it thanks in part to a 47 yard catch and run by Rocky Bleier followed by him picking up 15 more yards on the ground, but the drive stalled and Pittsburgh had to settle for a 29 yard Bahr field goal with 3:30 to play. The Steelers would get the ball back with 1:37 to play, but Kevin Smith picked off Bradshaw, and Aikman kneeled it out for the visitors. He finished 12 of 22 for 246 yards but with three scores, Emmitt Smith ran 15 times for 98 yards and added a pair of catches for 54 yards with a touchdown for Dallas. Bradshaw went 17-27 for 264 yards and two scores to lead the Steelers, but that late interception doomed him. Franco Harris ran 23 times for 71 yards and added a couple catches for 40 yards and a score, while Rocky Bleier had 25 yards rushing and 47 receiving.

@ (1) '89 SF 22, (4) '95 DAL 12
Photo by Rusty Kennedy (SFGate)
The Cowboys had control of this one early, but fell apart late as the hosts prevailed. Emmitt Smith opened the game with a 40 yard run that helped set up a 35 yard Chris Boniol field goal, and after a Niner three and out, he added on another from 26 to cap a 12 play, 66 yard drive. The 49ers finally got moving late in teh half, moving 81 yards to set up a 32 yard Mike Cofer field goal to make it 6-3, but the Cowboys had one more  clutch drive in them, with Troy Aikman's 39 yard completion to Jay Novacek setting up a two yard strike from Aikman to Kevin Williams, but Boniol missed the extra point, keeping it a 12-3 game going into the break. San Francisco got back into the game opening the third quarter, with Roger Craig converting a fourth and goal at the one, but seeing his touchdown called back by a hold, forcing them to settle for a field goal. Aikman threw a pick three plays later deep in his own territory to set up a 31 yard Cofer field goal to make it 12-9. After a Dallas punt, the Niners went right back to it, marching 68 yards in 12 plays with Cofer hitting from 28 again to tie the game. Boniol had a chance to give Dallas the lead again, but he missed from 43 to spoil a great drive, and the 49ers made them pay, marching 67 yards in nine plays with Joe Montana finding John Taylor for a seven yard touchdown with 1:50 to play. The Cowboys went four and out, and after a Roger Craig first down on the ground sealed the deal, allowing Montana to kneel it out save for the week's third completely unnecessary field goal at the final gun. Montana only threw 22 passes but completed 15 for 207 yards and that clutch touchdown, while Roger Craig ran for 89 yards on 18 carries. They spoiled a 19 carry, 142 yard day for Emmitt Smith, while Troy Aikman went 14-26 for 182 yards, a score, and an interception.

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