Monday, August 6, 2018

2018 NFL Tournament of Champions: Elimination Stage Round 1

After three months' worth of games, it's finally time to get the playoffs started!

13 weeks and 312 games narrowed our field of the 52 Super Bowl champions down to 24. The top six teams from each group have all advanced to this point. Seven wins guaranteed you a berth in the postseason, while we had ten teams finish at .500, though only two of those teams made the cut thanks to head to head and point differential tiebreakers. The bracket is set and can be seen below.

So after several weeks of simulating 24 games, we're cutting this down to eight games over each of the next two weeks. With 24 teams advancing this far, anyone who finished in the top two in their group got a first round bye and a week to rest up.

I opted to schedule out the postseason like the NFL does, splitting games between the Saturday and the Sunday for more simulated viewership. It was also a necessity for this round, as two iterations of the Dallas Cowboys are slated to play at home.

Weather conditions from the host cities will be taken into account for each game. You can view the final standings and scores from group play here. The postseason bracket is embedded below and will be updated as the postseason goes along. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play some playoff football!

Saturday

@ (4) '71 DAL 23, (5) '13 SEA 14
Seattle opened this one with a 13 play, 82 yard drive that took over eight minutes off the clock, capped by a two yard Marshawn Lynch touchdown run. The Cowboys answered late in the frame when Duane Thomas broke free for a 55 yard touchdown run. Seattle again took a ton of time off the clock, getting back in the end zone midway through the second when Russell Wilson took it in himself from a yard out for a 14-7 lead. Dallas had a chance late in the half when Wilson was picked off, but Mike Clark missed a 50 yard field goal off the upright to keep it a seven point game at the break. He would eventually redeem himself, hitting from 24 yards out late in the third quarter. The Seahawk offense started to sputter in the second half, and Dallas took advantage midway through the fourth when Roger Staubach converted a third and 16 with a 28 yard completion to Thomas, setting up a 45 yard strike on a screen to Lance Alworth, though the extra point was blocked to make it 16-14 Cowboys. Clark would miss another field goal with just under four minutes to play, but the Seahawks turned it over on downs inside the two minute warning, and the Cowboys put the game away when Staubach hit Bob Hayes for a 22 yard touchdown with just under 90 seconds to go. Thomas finished the game with 144 rushing yards and a touchdown, plus 25 yards receiving, while Staubach completed 10 of his 18 passes for 128 yards and two scores. Wilson finished the game 11 of 21 for 116 yards and an interception while Beast Mode was held to just 41 yards rushing on 21 carries.

@ (3) '85 CHI 13, (6) '03 NE 3
Photo from USA TODAY Sports (photographer uncredited)
Chicago's defense helped carry the day once again, as they forced a three and out to open the game, then got the lead midway through the first on a 39 yard Kevin Butler field goal. New England got its first first down in the final couple minutes of the quarter, but it wasn't until late in the half when the Pats finally got a scoring chance off good field position, tying the game on a 27 yard Adam Vinatieri field goal. A Jim McMahon pick near midfield almost cost the Bears, but their defense forced a punt and kept the game tied at the break. Butler missed a 43 yard field goal late in the third quarter, but the Pats' offense couldn't get past midfield, and the Bears finally got the lead back early in teh fourth when Walter Payton broke free for a 25 yard touchdown run. New England went three and out, and the Bears tacked on a 33 yard Butler field goal thanks in part to a 35 yard completion from McMahon to Ken Margerum. Vinatieri missed from 47 with just under five minutes to play, and that pretty much settled it. McMahon went 12-20 for 135 yards and a pick for the Bears, while Payton ran for 141 yards and a touchdown. The Pats defense caused fits, with Richard Seymour sacking McMahon three times and Willie McGinest getting him twice, but Tom Brady finished 11-25 passing for 171 yards, and the Pats ran for a combined 41 yards.

(6) '08 PIT 16, @ (3) '11 NYG 10
Photo by Jeff Zelevansky (Getty Images)
The Giants got a burst late in the first half, but that was all they could muster as they're the first higher seed to fall this postseason. Pittsburgh controlled the clock to start the game, marching 49 yards in six and a half minutes to set up a 50 yard Jeff Reed field goal that got the Steelers the early lead. Neither offense mustered much after that until midway through the second, when Ben Roethlisberger hit Heath Miller for a 53 yard completion to flip the field, and four plays later he hit Hines Ward for a one yard touchdown and a 10-0 lead. New York finally got its offense going following this, needing 11 plays to march 76 yards and get back in the game as Eli Manning hit Hakeem Nicks from 15 yards out to cap the drive with just under two minutes to go before the half. Pittsburgh punted with 50 seconds left, leaving just enough time as Ahmad Bradshaw's 22 yard run and a 21 yard pass from Manning to Victor Cruz helped set up a game-tying 29 yard field goal for Lawrence Tynes at the buzzer. But the Steelers made halftime adjustments, forcing a three and out and getting the lead back on a 26 yard Reed field goal set up by a 38 yard Willie Parker run. It took the Giants until the final minute of the third quarter to get their first first down of the second half, but a James Farrior sack broke the momentum, and the Steelers added onto their lead with a 12 play, 67 yard drive that saw a pair of third down conversions help set up a 42 yard Reed field goal for a 16-10 lead. Roethlisberger nearly cost his team inside the two minute warning when he was picked off by Antrel Rolle in his own territory, but Deshea Townsend picked up his quarterback by picking off Manning on the very next play, and a Parker 11 yard run moved the chains and allowed Big Ben to kneel it out. Roethlisberger finished the day 15 of 22 for 224 yards, a touchdown, and a pick, with Heath Miller, Santonio Holmes, and Hines Ward each catching for passes for a minimum of 54 yards. Parker ran 19 times for 86 yards for the Steelers. Eli Manning led the Giants with a 16 for 25 day for 130 yards, a touchdown, and a pick. Bradshaw paced the Giant ground game with 56 yards on 12 carries.

(6) '90 NYG 13, @ (3) '73 MIA 6
Photo by Gin Ellis (Getty Images)
The Giants make it both #3 seeds on the Saturday evening slate falling with a nice first half and strong defensive performance. Raul Allegre hit a 40 yard field goal nine minutes into the game thanks in part to a couple nice Ottis Anderson runs. The Dolphins compounded matters when Bob Greise threw a pick in Giant territory, and five plays later Phil Simms found Lionel Manuel for a 50 yard touchdown and a 10-0 lead. Allegre would make another 40 yard field goal early in the second quarter, and Miami's two forays into Giant territory before the break ended with a punt and a missed 38 yard field goal at the halftime gun. New York turned it over on downs to open the third quarter, and finally after a great punt return the Giants got a drive starting at the Giant 25, but they had to settle for a 40 yard Garo Yepremian field goal. He would hit from 33 midway through the fourth quarter to make it a seven point game, but that was it. Despite a Simms interception, the Dolphins ended up going three and out, and a final desperation drive ended with Earl Morrall threw four straight incompletions from near midfield. Morrall was awful, completing just two of 13 passes for 36 yards. Greise wasn't much better, going just 11-26 for 159 yards with an interception. Larry Csonka ran for 70 yards, and Mercury Morris added 55. Ottis Anderson had 77 yards rushing to pace the Giants, and Phil Simms went 11-24 for 180 yards, a touchdown, and an interception.

Sunday

@ (3) '16 NE 34, (6) '94 SF 20
Photo from the Associated Press (photographer uncredited)
Kind of like Super Bowl LI, the fourth quarter was all Patriots as they mounted a comeback win. Both offenses struggled in the opening quarter until the scoring finally started early in the second when Steve Young hit John Taylor for a 51 yard touchdown. The Patriots responded by taking almost eight minutes off the clock to march 83 yards, capped by a ten yard strike from Tom Brady to Julian Edelman that tied the game. But this was too much time before the half for the Niners, and Young marched his team 66 yards in 12 plays to set up a 22 yard Doug Brien field goal for a 10-7 halftime lead. San Francisco extended the lead midway through the third, capping a 10 play drive with a 50 yard Brien field goal, but the tide began to turn late in the frame when Brien missed a 47 yarder. The Patriots went to work, flipping the field and opening the fourth quarter with Brady finding Martellus Bennett for a 15 yard touchdown for the lead. New England forced a quick punt, then needed just three more plays to extend the lead as Brady found Edelman on the run, and he took it 43 yards for a touchdown. Then Rob Ninkovich picked off Young and took it 54 yards for a touchdown and a 28-13 lead. The 49ers managed to get back within one score a few minutes later as Young hit Taylor again, this time for a 12 yard touchdown, with just under six minutes to play, but after New England's ground game took a ton of time off the clock, Young was picked off again, and Dion Lewis delivered the dagger with a 24 yard touchdown run. That run made up almost two thirds of Lewis' total of 37 rushing yards while LeGarrette Blount picked up 39 for the Pats. Tom Brady did most of the damage, going 14 of 19 for 231 yards and three scores. Edelman caught five passes for 88 yards and two scores. Steve Young had a decent day, going 19 of 33 for 242 yards and two touchdowns, but had three costly interceptions. John Taylor caught four balls for 73 yards and two scores, while Ricky Watters led all rushers with 78 yards.

(5) '15 DEN 25, @ (4) '76 OAK 0
Photo from USA TODAY Sports (photographer uncredited)
Our first shutout of the postseason was a dominant one for the Broncos. A short field led to a 46 yard Brandon McManus field goal about 11 minutes in, and it took until after that for the Raiders to grab their first first down, but they stalled in Denver territory and T.J. Ward picked off Ken Stabler to end the threat. That pick led to a 34 yard McManus field goal. Peyton Manning threw an interception on the next drive, and the Raiders were able to get into scoring range. But Fred Steinfort missed a 43 yard field goal, and the Broncos went back to work, with Ronnie Hillman running for 52 yards to set up a 26 yard McManus field goal for a six point swing. McManus would hit from there again before halftime and take a 12-0 lead into the break. Denver put it away early in the third when they finally got in the end zone, moving 65 yards in ten plays capped by a nine yard strike from Manning to Jordan Norwood. Manning would throw another pick later in the third, but Mark Van Eeghen fumbled for the Raiders, and it turned into another McManus field goal. He would get one more midway through the fourth to complete the scoring. Peyton Manning had a decent day, going 21 of 32 for 253 yards, a touchdown, and two picks, Ronnie Hillman had 19 carries for 99 yards, and Demariyus Thomas caught six passes for 72 yards. Ken Stabler had a bad day for the Raiders, going eight of 24 for 92 yards with two picks, and Mark Van Eeghen was held to 23 yards rushing on 15 carries.

(5) '93 DAL 23, @ (4) '91 WAS 20 (OT)
Photo from Getty Images (photographer uncredited)
We had an absolute thriller in overtime. Dallas got out to the early lead thanks to a good ground game setting up a 30 yard Eddie Murray field goal. They nearly added to that lead late in the first when a 55 yard pass from Troy Aikman to Alvin Harper set up the Cowboys in scoring position, but the Redskins made a goal line stand, then marched 99 yards, 57 of which came on a pass from Mark Rypien to Art Monk for a go-ahead touchdown. Chip Lohmiller would make a 35 yard field goal to make it 10-3 later in the quarter, but the Cowboys would get those points back before halftime when Murray hit from 48. Washington tried to pull away off a Troy Aikman pick late in the third, turning it into a 32 yard Lohmiller field goal and taking almost nine minutes off the clock in the process. But the Cowboys tied the game on a 59 yard Emmitt Smith touchdown run four plays later and grabbed the lead after a Washington three and out when Smith scored again from five yards out to cap an eight play, 45 yard drive. But they left a minute and a half for Washington, which was plenty as Mark Rypien and Earnest Byner moved the ball downfield, and Rypien tied it with a seven ayrd strike for Ricky Ervins with 30 seconds to go. Aikman's Hail Mary was underthrown, sending the game to overtime. Washington nearly got into good position with a big opening drive, but Lohmiller missed a 57 yard field goal. The Cowboys turned it over on downs at the Washington 44 four plays later, and the Redskins had a chance to win again, but Lohmiller missed from 53. This time the Cowboys didn't mess around, with Smith and Derek Lassic churning yards on the ground to set up a game-winner from 25 yards out for Murray. Smith finished with 155 yards rushing on 25 carries and two touchdowns, Aikman went 19-28 for 266 yards with an interception, and Michael Irvin caught six passes for 103 yards. Mark Rypien was valiant in defeat, completing 17 of 25 passes for 242 yards and two scores while Earnest Byner carried 23 times for 89 yards and Ricky Ervins added 57 yards on 14 carries.

@ (4) '95 DAL 30, (5) '82 WAS 6
This one was not close. The Cowboys reached Redskin territory on the first play of the game, and eight plays later Emmitt Smith hit pay dirt with a one yard plunge that opened the scoring just under six minutes in. The Redskins would punt on fourth and 19 from the Dallas 37, and the Cowboys proceeded to march 80 yards in just six plays, with Smith breaking free for a 34 yard touchdown and a 14-0 lead late in the first. Dallas poured it on midway through the second with a 12 play, 80 yard drive capped by a 16 yard strike from Troy Aikman to Michael Irvin. Chris Boniol hit a 32 yard field goal with just under a minute to go in the half, though he'd miss one from 46 off a Washington fumble on the next drive, but all in all, the Cowboys had a 24-0 halftime lead. The Redskins managed a couple Mark Moseley field goals, but couldn't take advantage of an Aikman pick midway through the third on top of that, and Boniol hit a couple more before all was said and done and the Cowboys advanced. Smith ran 25 times for 191 yards and scored twice, while Aikman finished 17 of 27 for 167 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Shante Carver led the Cowboys defense with two sacks. Joe Theismann had an awful game, completing just eight of 23 passes for 65 yards, while John Riggins was held to 67 yards on 22 carries for the Redskins.


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