So far I've covered the North and West divisions in my circle around the country, and we're working through the South now before finishing up out east.
Continuing with my pattern of alternating conferences, we're back in the AFC today as we look at its South division.
AFC South
Common opponents on schedule: AFC East, NFC East
2017: 10-6 (1st), Lost AFC Championship Game
It's hard to believe that a Blake Bortles led team is coming off an AFC Championship Game appearance, but here we are. Bortles played well in 2017, and while he doesn't have a lot of proven weapons in the passing game with Allen Robinson's departure, leaving Donte Moncrief and Marqise Lee as his top two wideouts, he does have an elite running back in Leonard Fournette to take some of the pressure off. But it's the defense that's the key part of this group. Jalen Ramsey has been a ton of talk this offseason, but he played very well in 2017 and has A.J. Bouye on the other side to lock down opposing receivers, while the line anchored by Calais Campbell is a force as well. Assuming Bortles is for real, this team should be right back in the thick of it in 2018.
2018 Prediction: 10-6
2017: 4-12 (4th), missed playoffs
The Texans had a brief shot of excitement last year when they started rookie Deshaun Watson at quarterback... and then he blew out his knee in a practice. Assuming he's fully healed and his explosiveness didn't take a hit, he should be a key cog in a pretty good offense, especially with Deandre Hopkins as his top target. Lamar Miller takes over as the top running back, and we'll see if he can bring some balance to the offense. Defense is an interesting question though. Jonathan Joseph is a good corner, but the biggest question comes up front. Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus are relentless in the pass rush, and if J.J. Watt can actually stay healthy this year, this defense will be a force to be reckoned with into January.
2018 Prediction: 9-7, Wild Card
2017: 9-7 (2nd), Lost in AFC Divisional Round
The Titans pulled off a nice comeback win last January at Arrowhead, but I'm not sure how good they'll be this year. Marcus Mariota has been okay through his first three years, but not great, and I'm not really sold on his weapons other than maybe in the run game with Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis. But they had one of the league's best run defenses in 2017, and that should transfer over to 2018 in a division whose only back that scares me is the aforementioned Fournette. Originally I didn't have the Titans making the playoffs, falling just short, but given developments elsewhere in the AFC, I opted to give them the berth despite the .500 record.
2018 Prediction: 8-8, Wild Card
2017: 4-12 (3rd), missed playoffs
The biggest boost here is the return of Andrew Luck after he missed all of last season. He's still got some weapons in T.Y. Hilton and Ryan Grant, plus the addition of Eric Ebron at tight end. The Colts have also tried to shore up their offensive line, which is important so Luck doesn't get killed. I'm not really sold on their defense though, with Quentin Nelson maybe being their best defensive guy on a unit that was pretty bad last year. I think Luck's presence will help give a little boost combined with some of the other moves, but they're still a way's away in this division.
2018 Prediction: 5-11
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