Wednesday, August 29, 2018

2018 AFC West Preview

We're onto Day 3 of my series of NFL previews, and we're working our way counterclockwise around the country as we go division by division.

Over the last couple days I've taken a look at the two North divisions, and by the time we hit the middle of next week I will have made my predictions for the entire league. We're swapping back to the AFC today, and this time we're looking out west as we'll eventually circle our way back to the division holding our defending champion.


AFC West

Common opponents on schedule: AFC North, NFC West

1. Los Angeles Chargers
2017: 9-7 (2nd), missed playoffs
This is a group that just missed out on making the postseason in its first season in Los Angeles. They remain in that 30,000 seat soccer stadium, but there's a good group playing games there. Phillip Rivers is still playing at a pretty high level, and he's got good weapons around him with Melvin Gordon in the backfield and Keenan Allen split out wide. But this defense is underrated; Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are good bookends on the defensive line, and Casey Heyward is one of the best corners in the league. Overall, I'm not a huge fan of this division, but I think the Chargers might be the best team in the bunch.
2018 Prediction: 9-7

2. Kansas City Chiefs
2017: 10-6 (1st), Lost in AFC Wild Card Round
I really shouldn't underestimate Andy Reid all that much, food and clock management jokes aside, because he continues to get the most out of every quarterback at his disposal, and this year he's handed the keys to second year man Patrick Mahomes. I'm not sure what to expect out of him this year though even though he's got plenty of weapons at his disposal in Kareem Hunt at running back and freeing Sammy Watkins from wide receiver hell to go opposite Tyreek Hill, and that's before you even mention Travis Kelce at tight end. Their defense isn't bad either with guys like Eric Berry and Justin Houston looming in the back seven, but all in all, I worry about having a fairly raw Mahomes at quarterback will do. The Chiefs will contend again, and I wouldn't be surprised if they surpass my expectations, but that's also because I'm tempering them.
2018 Prediction: 8-8

3. Oakland Raiders
2017: 6-10 (3rd), missed playoffs
The Raiders had some injury troubles in 2017, especially on the offensive line as Derek Carr struggled. If this group stays healthy, he'll have time to find weapons like Amari Cooper, who was a fantasy bust last year, and new acquisition Jordy Nelson. I'm also not totally sold on their defense other than Khalil Mack, assuming he's around at least, but with an improved offense the Raiders should be better in 2018. I just don't know that they'll be that much better.
2018 Prediction: 7-9

4. Denver Broncos
2017: 5-11 (4th), missed playoffs
The Broncos went out and got Case Keenum in an effort to fix their quarterback situation, who will likely be an upgrade over Paxton Lynch, but maybe not that much. He'll have good weapons in Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas, while rookie running back Royce Freeman seems to be a hot name coming into 2018, even though he's listed second on the Denver depth chart. If Keenum can stabilize the offense, it'll take a lot of pressure off a defense that on paper is one of the league's best. Adding Bradley Chubb to a group that already includes Von Miller on the other side of the linebacking corps, plus a couple good corners in Bradley Roby and Chris Harris, and this team should be better. But I'm not sure how much of Keenum's 2017 success was the system versus himself, so I'm skeptical.
2018 Prediction: 5-11

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