The process of getting here was a good one, as the double round robin set up some interesting clinching scenarios that made for a fun final day of the regular season.
The men's tournament has a slightly weird bracket; only 62 teams make The Dance (something about fewer conferences earning auto bids), with 43 teams earning automatic invites. This leaves 19 spots open for at-large invitees, which the CCIW could take some advantage of.
Like yesterday, this isn't a look at possibilities of making the NCAA Tournament, other than for the purposes of the automatic bid. I'll also take a look at the venue for this weekend's action. Later today once the final public regional rankings drop, I'll take a look at those.
2015 CCIW Men's Basketball Tournament
Carver Center- Augustana College (Rock Island, IL)
During my time at WONC, I made it to three of the CCIW rivals' gyms: Wheaton, Carthage, and Illinois Wesleyan. In 2012, I made the trek to Elmhurst for a road game. That leaves Augie, Millikin and North Park as the schools I have yet to visit. Talking to North Central's assistant sports information director, who grew up going to Augie games, the Carver Center is quite the venue. I guess going in, you end up going down to get into the seats, which is kind of a cool feature. This is Augie's fourth time hosting the Tournament and the first time since 2008.
Semifinal #1
Record: 18-7 (10-4); 8th tournament appearance (6th consecutive), 0 titles
The Titans won the second place game on Saturday for the right to wear white at the Carver Center over Elmhurst, and get rewarded for their efforts with a rematch. Wesleyan boasts a pair of guards who average double figures in the form of Dylan Overstreet (11.5 PPG on 49.5% shooting, including 32.8% from three) and Jordan Nelson (10.8 PPG on 39.4% shooting, but he shot 43.5% from outside). There's plenty of balance, however, as the Titans follow that up with four players who average at least eight points per game. On the whole, the Titans shot 39.5 percent from three as a team, the best figure in the CCIW. Obviously with the balance, keying in on one guy isn't going to get it done, but at the same time, the Titans can't rely on the long ball (they shot 90 more threes than the second place team for an average of nearly 25 attempts per game). If the shots are falling, they'll be a tough out, but if they're not, they've vulnerable. For reference, they hit 12 of their 30 threes in the win against Elmhurst on Saturday.
Record: 19-6 (9-5); 5th tournament appearance (1st since 2009), 0 titles
The Blue Jays are looking to recover from their worst loss of the season after getting blown out in Bloomington. They get a shot for revenge right away, which gives them an advantage. They get to make the adjustments to what went wrong, and they can certainly pull the upset. Elmhurst boasts one of the best scoring defenses in the CCIW (3rd in points per game allowed and the best opposing field goal percentage) while also producing good offense with three guys averaging double figures. Guard Kyle Wuest leads the team with 15 points per game on 42 percent shooting, while Erik Crittenden (11.1 PPG on 46.3% shooting) and Bryant Ackerman (10.8 PPG on 42.8% shooting) back him up. Crittenden is their main inside presence, but his shooting percentage leaves something to be desired. They'll probably largely rely on the interior defense of Crittenden and Will Nixon (team-leading 36 blocks) to control the paint and the boards. If they can, they can knock off the Titans.
Semifinal #2
Record: 21-4 (11-3); 10th appearance (10th consecutive), 3 titles
Grey Giovanine's charges are the model of consistency: they have made every CCIW Tournament since they started playing them in 2006. Augie was the #1 team in the nation at one point this season, but then they dropped a couple games, but remained in the top 10. The Vikings finished with the best defense in the conference, allowing just 64.5 points per game. They're no slouches on offense though, as they feature three double-figures scorers. Hunter Hill is the biggest threat, as he averaged 14.9 points per game on 48.9 percent shooting, but that figure includes a 44 percent mark from three point range. They have some good interior scorers as well in Ben Ryan (11.6 PPG on 58% shooting) and Nic Hoepfner (10.1 PPG on 62.2% shooting). As a team, the Vikings shot just shy of 50 percent from the floor, and take care of the ball, averaging only about 11 turnovers a game. You have to play near perfect basketball to beat these guys.
Record: 18-7 (8-6); 7th appearance (first since 2013), 3 titles
After a year hiatus, the Cardinals return to the tournament after winning the play-in game on Saturday against North Park. This North Central team has been a little inconsistent at times, but they've been very successful in recent years against Augie, winning four in a row in Rock Island. The Cardinals also boast three scorers who average double figures, led by the big man duo of Charles Rosenberg (16.4 PPG on 53.6% shooting) and Jack Burchett (11.4 PPG on 58.3%), but teams have to respect the play of guard Jayme Moten as well now that he's healthy (he averaged 15.2 PPG on 48.3% shooting, including a 43.8 percent mark from downtown). By and large, the way to beat this Cardinal team is to control the paint. If Burchett and Rosenberg are struggling to score, the Cardinals will have some problems, though other guys like Kevin Honn, Erwin Henry and Brandon White can step up and hit some shots if needed. To me though, it rests on the two bigs unless Jayme Moten goes into Heat Check mode.
Overall Predictions
Getting to host the tournament means a lot to Augie I'm sure, but they are vulnerable at home. North Central has been here before (though there are a lot of young guys on this team), and they have beaten Augie in Rock Island before, including earlier this season without Jayme Moten. I think at full strength, they pull off the upset. In the early semi, I think there's no way Elmhurst gets blown out again, but the Titans have too much shooting. Then in the finals, I'll be bold and take an upset: North Central somehow, someway, pulls off back to back upsets and makes it into the NCAA Tournament.
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