North Central and the NCAA Regional Rankings: Week 1 Edition

We're into the heart of February, and with it: nearing March Madness. Even at the lower levels of the NCAA, this is a big time, and Selection Monday coming up in a few weeks is a big deal.

Both Cardinal teams are in the thick of the race in the CCIW, so with that in mind, I want to take a look at both the women's team and the men's team and how their chances at making The Dance look as we approach the end of the regular season. To do this, I'm going to look at their standings in the CCIW as well as the regional rankings, which just came out today.



Men's Basketball

Record: 16-6 overall, 6-5 CCIW (4th)
Central Region: 8th (out of eight teams)

The Cardinals did a decent job rebounding from that tough five game stretch where they lost four games by beating Wheaton in a nail biter before going on the road and beating Augustana. The Vikings have fallen off a cliff a little bit to open up the conference for Illinois Wesleyan... who proceeded to blow out the Cardinals on Saturday. It should be noted that the Cardinals have had to play the last two and a half games without Jayme Moten, who injured his leg in the Wheaton win.

Overall, with Moten hurt, the Cardinals find themselves in a tough position, but they've hurt themselves too with home losses to Augie and Elmhurst, and the losses at home to Millikin and at North Park are inexcusable, even if North Park has been on a tear, winning five straight. In the CCIW, only the Titans have locked up a tournament bid, and they're hoping to host it for the third straight year. Augie just needs another win to lock up their spot, while Elmhurst remains just a game back. They should both be in soon, while the Cardinals probably need to win out to make the conference tournament.

From a regional perspective, the Cardinals aren't in the greatest shape. Even before the regional rankings dropped, I figured the only way into the NCAA Tournament would be to win the CCIW Tournament first, something that won't be easy. The rankings dropped at about 1:30 today, with the Cardinals rounding out the Central region, trailing the three teams ahead of them in the CCIW, as well as UAA foe Washington University (Missouri), Midwest Conference leader St. Norbert, and a pair of WIAC teams in Stevens Point and Whitewater. Of those seven teams, at least four are going to make the tournament because of the conference auto bids (this, of course, assuming NCC doesn't win the CCIW), but with only 19 at large bids available, NCC is way behind many of these teams, and other regions boast strong teams as well (the NESCAC is probably getting at least three teams into the tournament, for example).

Where the Cardinals do have an advantage, however, is in strength of schedule. The Cardinals have the sixth-best in-division SOS regionally, but have the third-highest SOS among the ranked teams in the Central. Record against ranked teams also matters; NCC has a 3-4 mark against teams ranked in any region with one more still to play. One clear advantage they do have, if it comes down to looking for an at large bid between Stevens Point and NCC is the Cardinals' 63-56 win in Stevens Point back in November.

Beating Carthage tonight and Elmhurst on Saturday will help tremendously both in terms of seeding and ranking. Ultimately, Senior Night against North Park will probably end up deciding the fourth seed in the conference unless NCC wins both their games this week and North Park loses one. Either way, the Cardinals need to make the CCIW Tournament to even think about making The Dance, and even then, they probably need the automatic bid to get in.

Women's Basketball

Record: 20-2 overall, 9-2 CCIW (2nd)
Central Region: 3rd (out of nine teams)

With Saturday's strong performance at Illinois Wesleyan (their third straight win over the Titans and second in a row at Bloomington), the Cardinals locked up their spot in the conference tournament. Wheaton clinched the tiebreaker over the Cardinals for first place following the 109-60 decision a couple weeks ago, which means any combination of two Thunder wins or North Central losses puts the tournament in Wheaton. The Cardinals continue their tough road trip this week, with a game at Carthage tonight before they had to Elmhurst on Valentine's Day.

Their conference tournament bid assured, we need to look at the national picture. I've been keeping an eye on strength of schedule, which has seen the Cardinals fall from about 20th a week ago to 44th this afternoon, but that drop can be attributed to playing the bottom two teams in the CCIW last week. Even Wheaton and Elmhurst have jumped in front of the Cardinals in those rankings, but it will even out over the next week or so with the double round robin of one of the toughest conferences in the country complete. In region, the Cardinals are eighth in strength of schedule, but they are behind three sub-.500 teams including Illinois Wesleyan. With where they're at overall in the region, the Cardinals find themselves in spectacular shape on this end, considering it's a major factor in picking the NCAA Tournament field.

In the women's bracket, automatic bids are given to the champions of 43 conferences, with one bid going to a non-AQ conference (last year it went to Rhodes of the Southern Athletic Association), and 20 at large teams are chosen to fill the rest of the 64 team field. North Central finds itself in good position regionally, as Wheaton and Washington University of St. Louis are both ahead of the Cardinals, and justifiably so. I was worried about St. Norbert ranking ahead of NCC, but other than that, no one else in the region comes close. That said, there's no minimum or maximum number of teams that can be taken out of any particular region, and there are some strong teams out east that will give a few conferences multiple berths.

I looked back at the 2014 Tournament for reference. 21 of the 42 teams who won at least 20 games but didn't get an automatic bid advanced to the Tournament. Of those 42 teams, all 21 who made the Dance were ranked at least sixth in the final public regional rankings. Granted, not all regions are the same size; the Central region only goes up to nine spots. Last year, the biggest snub was Catholic University, who was fourth in that final Atlantic regional ranking, but they also lost their conference semifinal game to Moravian, who got in over them. This is probably the closest comparison to North Central this season that I could find, and even then, not the most apt.

So for the Cardinals, the easiest way in is the tough road: beating Wheaton in the CCIW Championship Game and stealing the automatic bid so we don't have to worry about the whims of the NCAA. If they want to minimize said whims, the road games against Carthage and Elmhurst are critical. NCC barely escaped with a win over Elmhurst after trailing by 11 in the second half at home, and Elmhurst is an underrated rival given Tess Godhardt's defection. Meanwhile, Carthage is always tough opponent up in Kenosha, but the Cardinals won the first matchup at Merner behind lethal three point shooting. We probably won't see them get that hot again, but their outside shooting remains deadly, and Godhardt is the leading scorer in the CCIW. If they can at least split their games this week, they should be in great shape for Senior Night, the CCIW Tournament, and in regards to their chances at making The Dance.