North Central and the NCAA Regional Rankings: Week 3 Edition

For the final time this season, the NCAA will pull back the curtain of its selection process. The third set of regional rankings is the final time we get to see anything for NCAA Tournament purposes, but it's worth getting a look with conferences tournaments underway.

When I checked these last week, both teams were coming off some struggles, but both the NCC men and women held firm in their regional rankings from Week 1, then proceeded to win their regular season finales to seal their respective places in the CCIW Tournament.

This is not the final set of regional rankings; the NCAA does re-rank teams one more time on Sunday, but that one is kept private. Even so, this set will be a pretty good indicator of teams' chances to make The Dance.

Men's Basketball

Record: 18-7 overall, 8-6 CCIW (4th)
Central Region: 8th (out of eight teams, LW: 8th)

The Cardinals are already in playoff mode after beating North Park on Saturday. Now that they're healthy and at full strength, they have a shot at making the tournament.

Much like the first two weeks of regional rankings, I think the only way the Cardinals make it is by winning the CCIW Tournament and getting the automatic bid. Given their current
(and maintained) regional ranking, especially the fact that they are behind the three CCIW teams ahead of them, the chances of stealing an at-large bid are probably all but nil. It's better than it was in recent weeks though, as Illinois Wesleyan has fallen all the way to 6th in the Central region.

Last year, the CCIW sent three teams to the NCAA Tournament: regular season and tournament champion Illinois Wesleyan (Final Four), second-seeded Wheaton (Sweet 16) and third-seeded Augustana (second round). Fourth-seeded Carthage was ranked sixth in the final public regional rankings and didn't make The Dance. If they didn't make it, there's no way North Central will in eighth, unless a lot of things go right.

Really, North Central's only chance at an at-large requires two things to go their way, and one is very broad. That one requires a lot of what has happened already up till posting time in conference tournaments around the country: top seeds rocking chalk. If the top teams who are leading their conferences are getting the automatic bids, that frees up at-large bids for lower seeded teams. The second one requires a lot of help though, too: North Central needs to beat Augie. With Wesleyan and Elmhurst taking up the two spots ahead of them and one needing to lose on Friday, it's an opportunity for North Central to sneak in. This also assumes the CCIW deserves to send three teams to the tournament, which is also an iffy proposition. They're going to end up earning at least one at-large bid, I'm convinced. I just think the Cardinals have too many teams in front of them grab one of those 19 spots.

Looking at the final data sheet, the Cardinals maintain the sixth-best strength of schedule in the region, though some teams ahead of them weren't good enough this season (those teams are Carthage and Millikin, who clearly benefitted from playing in the CCIW). Augie and Illinois Wesleyan remain ahead, as does Wisconsin-Stevens Point. If Whitewater ends up winning the WIAC, Stevens Point makes the tournament and North Central doesn't, something is wrong, as the Cardinals boast a better strength of schedule, better record against regionally ranked foes, AND beat Stevens Point head to head this season... AT Stevens Point. A hissy fit will be thrown if Stevens Point gets in over NCC with an at large bid. I really doubt it will happen, but you've been warned.

Women's Basketball

Record: 21-4 overall, 10-4 CCIW (2nd)
Central Region: 3rd (out of nine teams, LW: 3rd)

North Central has moved back up the strength of schedule rankings a little bit, which will be one of the keys to their candidacy for a bid. The CCIW has a decent history of getting multiple teams into The Dance, as they sent two teams back in 2013. I really don't think this year will be much different.

Regionally, the Cardinals have held firm once again. In terms of strength of schedule, they do still trail the two teams ahead of them in the region in Wheaton and Washington (Missouri), while also trailing conference rivals Carthage and Elmhurst by a hair (though neither is regionally ranked), other CCIW rival Illinois Wesleyan (who finished with the best strength of schedule in the nation, but finished 10-15), Wisconsin-Eau Claire, who North Central beat, and Wisconsin-Stout, who isn't in the picture. Again, that 0-2 mark against regionally ranked foes stands out, but that's really just a credit to Wheaton for being a really good basketball team.

Given North Central's 21-4 regular season record, 20-4 regional record (that Trinity game unfortunately doesn't count) and strong strength of schedule, plus the fact that every team ranked at least third in last year's final public regional rankings made The Dance, I think they're in no matter what. Other than Wheaton, nobody else from the CCIW is regionally ranked. With those 20 at-large bids available, it would take a bevy of top seeds from conferences nationwide all falling to knock the Cardinals out of the picture. Like on the men's side, so far chalk has been rocked in women's conference tournaments. Early advantage: Cards.

The question here becomes one of location. Will the Cardinals get an opportunity to host the first and second rounds? There's some history behind this; Carthage got to host last year, breaking a two year drought back to Illinois Wesleyan's first and second round hosting en route to their Final Four appearance. We'd be more likely to see Wheaton end up getting hosting duties, especially if they win the CCIW Tournament.

Looking through the past few years worth of brackets, the Central (formerly Midwest) and Great Lakes regions end up blending to some degree for tournament purposes, as the NCAA likes to try to minimize travel as best as they can. With this blending, we typically end up seeing the super-strong teams from these two regions end up with hosting privileges. If I had to guess who, we're probably looking at Calvin, St. Thomas, Washington University (Missouri) and DePauw, with Wheaton and maybe Transylvania or Thomas More as longer shots. The latter two are Kentucky schools, and there is some precedent for being grouped with schools down there. This, of course, is all based on seeding; the NCAA also takes geographical location into consideration. With Illinois being the center of all this action, plus automatic bids coming from schools in Wisconsin and Iowa who probably aren't good enough seed-wise to host (other than maybe St. Norbert), we could find Merner being a host site. It's a long shot, but it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility.

Of course, a lot of this hinges on the CCIW Tournament this weekend. I just don't want to spend my Monday blasting the NCAA for robbing a great basketball team of a chance to prove itself on the national stage.