North Central and the NCAA Regional Rankings: Week 2 Edition

We're onto the second week of the NCAA releasing regional rankings at the D-III level for both men's and women's basketball. These were supposed to drop yesterday, but technical issues pushed the revealing of the rankings back a day. The men's regional rankings dropped this morning, with the women's side coming a little bit ago.

Last week, things seemed a little brighter for both North Central teams as they approached the end of the regular season. Now, some tough losses have changed the equation a little bit.

I touched on this on Monday in looking at all the CCIW scenarios regarding the tournaments. I won't rehash all of that too much, instead focusing on the changes from last week and what it means for North Central with regards to their chances of getting the proverbial golden ticket.

Men's Basketball

Record: 17-7 overall, 7-6 CCIW (4th)
Central Region: 8th (out of eight teams; LW: 8th)

The Carthage win last week helped, but the tough overtime loss at Elmhurst forced the play-in game mentioned in the CCIW Tournament post against North Park. Fortunately, they'll have some reinforcements at the ready for the playoff-type atmosphere.

Jayme Moten returned to action against the Blue Jays, playing 39 of a possible 45 minutes while mostly jacking up threes. His presence will be a huge factor this weekend, especially in the face of the new regional and national picture. NCC, after spending a few weeks on the fringes of the Top 25, have dropped completely off the national radar, despite their lone loss this past week being to a ranked team on the road in overtime.

Taking a look at the rest of the region, I had a hard time seeing the Cardinals dropping out of the regional rankings, even with the loss to Elmhurst. Everyone ranked above the Cardinals has a better in-division record, and there are even a few teams with as good (if not better) marks in division, namely UW-Platteville from the WIAC as well as local rivals Aurora and Benedictine. The problems with those teams are Platteville's 1-4 mark against regionally ranked foes and the fact that both Aurora and Benedictine lost to the Cardinals this season, and head to head matters. In terms of strength of schedule, the Cardinals still have a very strong position, ranking third among regionally ranked teams in the metric, and fifth overall (Carthage and Wisconsin-Eau Claire are the non-ranked teams ahead of NCC).

From a tournament perspective, really nothing has changed from last week. The Cardinals are in win-or-go-home mode on Saturday as they prepare for the Vikings. A win sends them to Rock Island, where they will need to beat Augie and then either Illinois Wesleyan or Elmhurst to grab the CCIW auto bid. The CCIW will almost certainly get at least one of the 19 available at-large bids, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them get two depending on how the Tournament plays out. I'll reinforce my statement from last week: the Cardinals need to get the auto bid to see the NCAA Tournament. There's no way they'll get an at-large bid with the way the chips have fallen.

Women's Basketball

Record: 20-4 overall, 9-4 CCIW (2nd)
Central Region: 3rd (out of nine teams, LW: 3rd)

This group is dealing with something they haven't dealt with yet this season: trying to snap a multi-game losing streak. Last week I mentioned that the road trip was going to be tough, and it was; in both losses, the Cardinals surrendered massive runs by their hosts to fall behind big early and were unable to mount a comeback. It had a national impact; the Cardinals fell out of the Top 25 after spending basically all of the calendar year to date in there. They still received a handful of votes, but this will test the resiliency of the group for the first real time all year.

In the grand scheme of things, you can't fault either loss this past week; Tarble Arena in Kenosha has been something of a house of horrors (NCC hasn't won there since 2006) and the Cardinals barely beat Elmhurst at home before getting blown out at their place. (The lesson here: Playing at home with all its comforts matters.)

Graphic by NCC Sports Information Department

And yet despite the struggles last week, the Cardinals did not drop at all in the regional rankings, remaining in third behind Wheaton and Washington (St. Louis). Their .567 strength of schedule trails the two teams ahead of them, as well as Elmhurst and Carthage and WIAC teams Wisconsin-Eau Claire and Wisconsin-Stout. The one red flag the Cardinals have is their 0-2 mark against regionally ranked foes, but that's Wheaton, who remains the lone CCIW team the Cardinals haven't beaten since going to The System. I actually expected the Cardinals to drop down to fourth in the region this week, so that they're staying pat is a good thing.

Saturday's game isn't as important for the women as it is for the men, but it's still important because no tiebreakers fall the Cardinals' way. The second seed doesn't mean much, other than wearing white in the CCIW semifinal and avoiding Wheaton until Saturday. The drop in the regional ranking hurts, but it's not a fatal blow. Twenty wins is a pretty important benchmark, and the selection committee will have a hard time bumping a team at that mark that is also ranked 47th nationally in strength of schedule.

The "easiest" road remains to go to Wheaton and win twice to steal the automatic bid and not leave it up to the committee. If it does rely on a committee though, I think the Cardinals have done enough to date to punch their ticket, all things considered. My main concern at this point (and only because I'm a homer): will NCC get to host the first and second round?