COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 9

We're quickly approaching the halfway point of the NFL season already. It's kind of crazy how quickly this has gone. It's been a fun season still, and there's still a lot of time left.

The coalition continues to chug along, though the gap between pickers has grown. Adam had another down week last week, while I saw my first week in double digit anything. Of last week's seven differences in picks, I ended up getting six right.

Adam had this to say before we get to our picks:

"So after several poor showings, I am going to do something that I have threatened Lucas with doing…  I am going all cheerleaders all days.  Every pick I make with be based on which cheerleader(s) I like better.  That is it."

Well then.

With six byes earned at the halfway mark, we only have 13 games this week. Adam and I disagree on eight of them. Let's see if his new, um... strategy... proves to be of any use.

2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 10

Another week, another batch of college football games to look over.

We're really getting down to the nitty-gritty of the season at this point. With only three teams still undefeated, wins are really at a premium. And you thought a playoff would devalue the regular season...

Most teams still have another five games to go, though some might have more or less depending on byes. Most of the action this week is once again in-conference, but there will still be a handful of games outside of those boundaries that will change the NCSS metric around a bit.

You can refer back to last week's rankings here. Let's see how this week changes the numbers.

2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 9 Edition

It is time.

With the weekend fully behind us, and a day ahead of the selection committee for the College Football Playoff, I'm back with my fourth mockup of the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

I continue to believe that while the FBS took things a step in the right direction, they haven't gone far enough. Four teams isn't enough to decide a champion out of the whole division. Hence, the sixteen team field. Each of the ten conferences will be represented by its champion, either decided in round robin in smaller conferences, or by the conference title game in the bigger ones. The rest of the field will be filled out with at-large teams, either independents or additional squads from the ten conferences.

So how is this decided? I use math, both of my own design and by others' designs, to help me out. From my own resources, I use weekly Non Conference Schedule Strength numbers to a small degree to figure out if teams are actually doing enough outside of their own leagues. To a larger degree, I use First Degree and Second Degree Playoff Points to more closely analyze how good each team really is: did you beat someone of significance, or was it an also-ran? You can view all those numbers for each individual team here.

Because I want some outside sources as well, I use a pair of computer rankings that used to be used in the early days of BCS calculations, but they stopped since both use margin of victory (which is kind of important). I've been using Jeff Sagarin's computer rankings for the first few editions, and I finally have my other set of rankings available too. The late David Rothman made his formula publicly available, and a staff member at UCLA plugs in all the data to rank the teams as well.

Below you will find each team ordered by seed, containing all the above numbers. Non-Conference  Schedule Strength is abbreviated NCSS, First Degree and Second Degree Playoff Points are abbreviated PP1 and PP2, respectively, Rothman's rankings are abbreviated ROTH, and Sagarin's are abbreviated SAG.

If you want to refer back to last week's numbers, you can view them here. Let's get to it.

2014 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 9

Another weekend, another batch of chaos among the college football ranks. With it comes mourning; the Little Brass Bell was stolen from where it rightfully belongs in heartbreaking fashion. With the loss of the Bell also probably comes the end of North Central's playoff hopes at the D-III level, barring some sort of miracle (at a best-case scenario 8-2, NCC probably isn't getting an at-large bid).

The highest level of the college ranks had some turmoil as well; we're down to only three undefeated teams with Ole Miss falling in Death Valley. With a bevy of one-loss teams now teeming among the waters of the FBS, I will need to eventually reach a consensus regarding the Death to the BCS Playoffs. But that struggle comes later.

For now, I have data entry and updating to do. Most of the week's games were in-conference again, but that has little bearing on the Playoff Points rankings, since at this point most of the rankings probably are where they will finish, or close to it. If you need a refresher on what these metrics mean, you can refer back to this post from Week 1.

Let's dig into the spreadsheet.

wife breaks into phone

My wife is awesome. I'm so glad she's a great baker. I always have yummy treats at home. She can also out eat me when we have pizza. Our cats are awesome too. Go hawks!

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 8

The coalition may need a little help as we approach the halfway mark of the season.

It was a down week for the entirety of the group, as everyone finished below .500 for the week, including me for the second straight week. Part of it had to do with groupthink failing epically; there were eight games we were unanimous on, and we missed seven of those. The dissenting games worked well for me though; I won four of the five games Adam and I disagreed on.

The numbers are a little off again though; Adam is on record last week picking the Ravens over the Falcons, but his ESPN pick was the Falcons. That's actually the second time he's goofed in that direction, so his numbers are actually better than what ESPN is reporting. The numbers listed in the records below is adjusted to compensate for this. (And this is why I always double check my picks when I write this post.)

The Giants and 49ers are on a bye this week, giving us 15 games to pick once again. This week, Adam and I disagree on seven of them. With so much of the season left, he can certainly make a comeback.

Let's pick some games.

2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 9

Week 9 of the NCAA football season begins today! And with it, another batch of games that will go a long way to deciding who can make the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

We're more than a few weeks into the heart of conference play, which makes my data gathering easier. It also makes summarizing what goes on each week much easier. You'll notice the difference between the first few weeks with almost every game out of conference and a post like last week's, where there were a grand total of four out-of-conference tilts.

The big question for this metric this week: can the SEC get back in the black? They've gone two weeks in a row with negative scores based on all the FCS games this late in the year. I know we have at least one more in store, though their final week will probably be better. Even so, I find it reprehensible.

Let's take a look at the non-conference schedules for the week, and how they affect the conferences' NCSS scores.

2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 8 Edition

From the ashes of some schools' football seasons, ariseth a playoff.

This is the third mock bracket that I've been able to build, and we're getting to the point where it's harder and harder to build a playoff field. Only four teams remain unbeaten after eight weeks of action. This means that we're going to have 12 teams with at least one loss in the field. But how do we decide who makes it over whom?

The answer: a selection committee... okay, just me. But I have tools at my disposal to help build the field. I will utilize up-to-date NCSS and Playoff Points information that I've been gathering over the past two months to help frame that decision. I'm also using computer rankings to help frame the field. The late David Rothman made his formula public knowledge, but the UCLA staff member who compiled it last season still hasn't run the numbers for this year yet. Jeff Sagarin, on the other hand, has his numbers calculated already. I will use his "Rating" (the number in purple) as the rankings labeled below.

Each team will be seeded 1-16, with home field advantage going to the higher seeds for the first three rounds. Obviously, this gives regular season success more weight than the current system does. Each team will be listed by seed, and includes their NCSS and both degrees of Playoff Points, as well as the Sagarin rankings. Their seeding is organically decided by a combinated of these four metrics, plus actual win-loss record. At the end of each line was the team's seeding in last week's bracket.

Enough talk. Let's seed.

2014 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 8

I'm back on a normal schedule this week after pushing everything back a day last week. And of course, it was another week with some chaos, which I love.

I actually got to sit and watch a really good chunk of a college football game for the first time probably since my time at WROK in Rockford when I was at the board for Illinois football. KSU-Oklahoma turned out to be a pretty good game, and I flipped over a bit to watch parts of the first half of Baylor-West Virginia. That was really all I got to see, so most of the rest of the day any info I got was from scoreboard watching.

In the grand scheme of things though, I want to run a playoff by numbers, since I don't have the time to watch multiple games on a Saturday usually. That's what this post is for.

Most of this weekend's action was in-conference, but it always will have an impact on the Playoff Points situation. Last week saw little change in the rankings, but the playoff bracket changed pretty dramatically. Let's get to that later though.

Here's a refresher on how the Playoff Points metric works. Let's see how the Week 8 slate changed the conference outlooks.

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 7

The coalition is back at it again! Week 7 of the NFL season is upon us, and with it, another set of picks against the ESPN spread!

Adam finally broke the Curse of the Even Weeks, while I saw my first sub-.500 week since Week 2. It was bound to happen, but I'm still about on pace with a coin flip. Adam also won the week head to head, as he took four of the six games we disagreed on. I still hold the lead on him overall, but I'm not in first in the group anymore, as we had someone go 13-2. He missed two games we all missed, so there's no shame in the two losses there.

This week Philadelphia and Tampa Bay have the byes, so we have a 15 game week again. Adam and I disagree on five of those, so Adam has a chance to retake the lead. Part of this will depend on if he learned one of the rules of gambling. See below for details.

Let's get to the picks!

2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 8

When I postponed this series of posts for the week, I'd figured I could get away with it and wouldn't miss any games. I forgot to look at the schedule. Louisiana-Lafayette played Texas State last night. Were MACtion going on right now, I'd be timed right. Sadly, the Sun Belt had to throw things off...

Either way, one game isn't going to throw things off too badly. It won't impact data gathering for the Non-Conference Schedule Strength metric. Last week didn't see too many major changes, other than the SEC having a negative NCSS for the week, which is rare (though I think they're the only conference that has ever run into this problem).

So what about this week? Let's run the numbers.

2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 7 Edition

I've emerged from the cave where my Bracket Machine lies, and I come bearing a new bracket!

We lucked out last week, as I finally had few enough undefeated teams to build a playoff. With four undefeated teams losing this weekend though, we're down to six overall. This has opened the door to some debate, as at-large bids will have to be claimed by teams that have lost at least once.

I will be using the same metrics as I did last week to build the sixteen-team field, compiled from the ten conference champions and six at-large teams. I still only have one computer ranking, as the UCLA staffer who compiles the late David Rothman's formula hasn't done anything for 2014 yet. Jeff Sagarin has been hard at work though, and he updated his rankings from the weekend. I will be using the purple "Ranking" number to help sort through teams, though my own numbers for NCSS and Playoff Points will also be used, which you can refer to here. At the end of each line will be the team's seeding from last week.

Let's look at the playoff picture.

2014 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 7

After taking a day off in honor of my wife's birthday, COAS is back to look at the weekend's impact on the college football world!

We saw some top teams fall off, and we're down a few undefeated teams after this past weekend. This will have a pretty big impact on the playoff picture, but more on that later.

Most of the action this past week was in-conference, so most of the conferences should be getting relatively equal win total boosts. It's the question of Playoff Points again that will have a bigger impact. We should see a few teams get over the 20 point mark in First Degree Playoff Points, while I'm not quite sure what to expect out of Second Degree Playoff Points.\

If you need a refresher on how the math works, you can view a summary of how it works here. You can also refer back to last week's rankings here. Then, if you want to see how I built the playoff bracket last week, you can view that here. Let's get to the rankings.

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 6

This week was a little more typical of what you'd expect from the picking coalition.

Adam had a good week, though not to the same degree he's had in previous odd weeks. We also had a much more balanced week in terms of dissenting games; I took three of the five games we disagreed on.

We also had some fluky things happen. If you look at the standings, which includes the scores for each week, I beat Adam out by two points. There was a discrepancy in one of Adam's picks. In the post for Week 5, Adam is on record as picking Pittsburgh (-6.5) over Jacksonville, but on ESPN he had the Jaguars (I guess he changed his mind and forgot to change it there). I'll give him the point for the week, so Adam is actually at 37 for the season so far. He's not the first to mess this up (I did something like this in 2012), and he probably won't be the last.

So in Week 6, Kansas City and New Orleans have byes, so there are 15 games again. There are a lot more home underdogs this week as well, so we see an evening out compared to last week. Adam and I disagree on 6 games, so my lead isn't necessarily safe. Let's get to the picks.

2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 7

We're onto another week of college football action! And hopefully, we'll have as much excitement as last week had.

For the most part going forward, NCSS averages for the conferences won't change, because conference play has started in full. There were some swaps last week in positioning, but nothing too major. I imagine this week will be similar. Either way, I need to look over the schedule in preparation for Week 7's Playoff Points numbers as well as version 2 of the Death to the BCS Playoffs bracket.

Let's look at the numbers.

2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 6 Edition

Finally! I get to play around with brackets!

With the results of Week 6 of the college football season in the books, I finally have the nation whittled down enough that I can build a bracket and not exclude any undefeated teams. Of course, of the ten that remain, at least half will not remain that way.

So in case you need a refresher into how the Death to the BCS Playoffs work, sixteen teams out of the 128 who play FBS-level football make the final field. The champions of all ten conferences make the field automatically, while the remaining spots are filled on an at-large basis. These sixteen teams are then seeded for the purpose of deciding home-field advantage. Obviously, this places a priority on winning your non-conference games in addition to doing well in your league.

The seeding process is somewhat subjective, since I'm deciding this process on my own, though I will take input from readers on how they think the field should be set up. For my role though, I use the stats outlined in the link above. I will use the NCSS rankings I've been compiling for the last month and a half to some degree, though Playoff Points will carry a little more weight. I will also use a couple computer rankings that the BCS deemed unnecessary because they factor in margin of victory. The late David Rothman and Jeff Sagarin both used rankings like this. Currently, the formula Rothman compiled hasn't been applied to the 2014 season yet, though Sagarin has been updating his numbers weekly. These will be combined together in an attempt to rank these teams with as little bias as possible. These rankings are abbreviated below as such: NCSS stands for Non-Conference schedule strength, PP1 and PP2 are First and Second Degree Playoff Points, respectively, while SAG is Sagarin's ranking for each team.

Since none of the conferences have officially been won, the conference "championships" are going to the teams with the in-conference record in each league. This will hopefully explain some of the "Huh?!" teams that will show up (and trust me, there's one that amazed even me). So, without further ado, here's the first edition of the Death to the BCS Playoff bracket.

2014 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 6

If it's a fall Saturday with a ton of chaos, it's a great Saturday. And boy, was it a great Saturday.

I've called out the various polls of college football to be a general farce, but I do still think it's noteworthy that four of the top six and five of the top eight teams in the polls all lost this past weekend. More importantly, I've reached a milestone. Only ten teams remain undefeated at this stage. And so through six weeks, even though it's probably premature, I can build the playoff field. More on that later.

For now, I want to see what the weekend of chaos did to all the numbers. Since most of the games were in conference this week, a lot of the conferences will get pretty equal win boosts. Playoff points, both First and Second Degree... might be a different story.

If you need a refresher, here's an expanded explanation of how the Playoff Points system works. For reference, you can also view last week's rankings here. Let's see the damage.

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 5

Adam shared with me a theory about the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest Sunday evening.

Through four weeks, I've been consistently about on pace with a coin flip. It's about what one would expect trying to pick stuff like this, even though last year I paced a 9-7 record every week. Adam, on the other hand, has been on a roller coaster. He posted double digit wins in Weeks 1 and 3, but those have been offset by double digit losses in Weeks 2 and 4. He told me when he sent in his picks, "I am shooting for 13/15 this week as that is how my mini trend is going."

We saw our biggest disparity yet last week, but the streak of sweeps is over. Adam was bailed out by the Chiefs dominating/the Patriots being awful to salvage the final contested pick of the week after only one of our consensus picks panned out. I've moved back into first place overall in the group (with help from a leader forgetting half of the week's games), with Adam in second and the records aligning as though we'd disagreed on every game thus far.

This week, we bump up to 15 games from last week's 13, as Oakland and Miami get a week to recover from the jet lag and time zone disparity from London. It's a weird week overall, because the initial ESPN lines have only two home underdogs. Adam and I disagree on five games this time. Will his pattern repeat into Week 5? Let's find out.