Tuesday, September 2, 2014

2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 2

Week 1 of the college football season is in the books! There were a few upsets, but for the most part, things went the way one would expect them to. It's way too early to even really think about the playoffs (yet, some "experts are already picking their four playoff teams for the College Football Playoff... come on, guys). I have no intention of looking at potential Death to the BCS Playoffs brackets for another several weeks. I will nonetheless continue to build on the metrics for those playoffs and keep you up to date on what's going on.

So in this week's look at the NCSS rankings, I'll update the cumulative scores of each conference and re-rank them. You'll see both this week's score and the total one, while I look over how well each conference scheduled (and call out teams that have FCS foes on their schedules). Please also note that a game was suspended over the weekend. A makeup date hasn't been announced, but for now, the NCSS scores from Week 1 have been updated to reflect the change.



  1. Conference USA (1.46, 2.92; LW: 1). Another pretty strong week for these guys. Florida Atlantic, Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion and Western Kentucky all have road contests against major conferences, while UTEP and UTSA host teams from those conferences. Marshall and Southern Mississippi get their cupcakes this week, while Florida International has one for the second straight week. Especially with the loss to Bethune-Cookman, I think I can safely disqualify FIU from the Death to the BCS Playoffs... though wouldn't it be funny now if they ran the conference table? 
  2. MAC (1.77, 1.85; LW: 10). The MAC roars back after a poorly scheduled opening week. Bowling Green is the lone cupcake eater this week, while Akron, Ohio, Ball State, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, and Northern Illinois all visit Power Conference institutions.
  3. American Athletic (1.18, 1.82; LW: T-5). A pretty solid week. East Carolina and Memphis are hitting the road to face South Carolina and UCLA, respectively. Tulane, Tulsa and South Florida all host major conference opponents to help give the AAC a boost. Connecticut drags it down a tad though with its FCS opponent.
  4. Mountain West (0.83, 1.75; LW: 2). San Diego State and San Jose State visit North Carolina and Auburn, respectively. Hawaii, Nevada and New Mexico all host Pac 12 schools, which really boosts the score. It gets set back a bit though by FCS visits for Utah State and UNLV.
  5. Pac 12 (1.00, 1.67; LW: 4). These guys continue to kick butt the second week in, the exceptions being Cal and Washington, who play DI-AA squads. Arizona, Washington State, Colorado, and Arizona State all hit the road to face non-Power conference opponents, while Oregon hosts Michigan State.
  6. Big 10 (0.86, 1.36; LW: 7). Michigan State heads out to Oregon. Michigan and Maryland are on the road out of conference, while Ohio State hosts Virginia Tech. Nebraska and Rutgers follow up solid showing in their openers with cupcakes, however.
  7. Sun Belt (0.55, 1.00; LW: 3). Idaho lost its three points from the suspended Florida game on Saturday. This week, Arkansas State is off to play Tennessee. Meanwhile, Troy hosts Duke to get some major points. Appalachian State and Georgia Southern host FCS teams this week, however. Even with that, because of the higher week score they get the tiebreaker over...
  8. SEC (0.43, 1.00; LW: T-5). Florida lost its one point from the suspended Idaho game on Saturday. For the current week, the big game is Missouri visiting Toledo. Arkansas, LSU and Texas A&M all take a break from good tests last week with cupcakes.
  9. ACC (0.21, 0.64; LW: 8). Virginia Tech visits Ohio State, while Duke and Georgia Tech visit mid major foes. The ACC gets a pretty big knock though, as Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, Wake Forest, Miami (FL) and Virginia all have dessert in Week 2.
  10. Big XII (0.10, 0.40; LW: 9). Oklahoma and Texas Tech all hit the road to face mid major opponents, which deserves a lot of credit. What does not, however, is Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia hosting FCS opponents. A bye for TCU and tilt between Iowa State and Kansas State doesn't help this score either.
In the interests of disclosure, the independents had an average NCSS of 2.00 this week, bumping them up to 3.25 and a higher score than all the other conferences. Since they're independents, this is to be expected. Their individual scores might matter though if any of them happen to run the table or come close. If you want to see individual team scores or just look over the data yourself, the spreadsheet can be found here.

Arizona-UTSA opens the Week 2 slate on Thursday, but those poor saps have to go up against the NFL. The COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest starts that night as well, and Thursday morning, you can see some picks against the spreads for the opening week of the NFL slate.

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