2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 5

With fall officially underway, we're fully into the football season. Every team has played at least a couple games so far, so we have a fair amount of data to compare non-conference slates. But each week, I need to keep tabs on this to check for any weird developments, like if Florida or Idaho are somehow able to add a 12th game given that their Week 1 contest got cancelled.

If we look back at last week's report, we had a pretty solid week of non-conference scheduling that included some flipping around of positions. Will the MAC keep its hold on the top spot? Or will Conference USA reclaim it? Can the SEC move out of the NCSS basement? Let's do the math. Remember, all numbers are rounded to the nearest hundredth.

1. MAC (0.62, 5.62; LW: 1). There are quite a few byes and conference games this week, but we're still like a month away from MACtion dominating weeknight programming. Akron, Kent State and Western Michigan are all on the road against ACC foes.[Ohio has the lone cupcake of the week.
2. American Athletic (1.36, 5.09; LW: 6). Tulane, South Florida, and Cincinnati all travel to Big Ten schools, while Memphis visits Ole Miss. SMU gets to host TCU, so there's a lot of good non-conference action this week. In conference, Connecticut hosts Temple.
3. Conference USA (0.62, 5.08; LW: 2). Western Kentucky visits Navy, while UTEP is off to Kansas State and Louisiana Tech heads to Auburn. There are a few conference games this week too.
4. Mountain West (0.50, 4.67; LW: 4). There are a few conference games, plus a couple byes. Points come from Wyoming visiting Michigan State and Colorado State shipping up to Boston. 
   
5. Sun Belt (0.45, 4.64; LW: 3). The Sun Belt starts some of its conference play, plus there are a few byes. Out of conference, New Mexico State visits LSU and Texas State is off to Tulsa.
6. Big 10 (0.29, 4.14; LW: 5). Michigan State hosts Wyoming, while Ohio State, Rutgers and Wisconsin welcome American Athletic squads. The rest of the conference kicks off conference play.
7. ACC (0.36, 3.07; LW: 8). The most notable out of conference matchup is a neutral site game between Notre Dame and Syracuse. Boston College hosts Colorado State, while Pitt, Virginia, and Virginia Tech all host MAC teams. Meanwhile, several teams start ACC play this week, hence the low average.
8. Big XII (0.30, 3.00; LW: 9). TCU hits the road to visit SMU, while Kansas State hosts UTEP. There are a couple of conference games this week, plus a couple byes. 
9. Pac 12 (0.00, 2.92; LW: 7). Oregon and Arizona are off this week. Other than that, Pac 12 action is on in full force. The biggest weakness for NCSS out of the Pac 12 is that they play nine conference games, while a lot of other leagues only play eight. 
10. SEC (0.21, 2.86; LW: 10). Auburn, LSU and Ole Miss all host non-Power conference foes, while much of the rest of the conference stays in house to break up the mass of undefeated teams.

As a reference, the independents averaged 0.75 points this week, moving them up to 7.75 NCSS points, which would be tops if they were their own conference. A fluky part of the schedule makes for a fun scenario: Army is on the road this week at Yale, which plays at the FCS level. Normally I'd penalize an FCS game, but because Army is on the road, I'm giving them 0 points for the week. I don't think I've ever encountered this in my two-plus seasons calculating this metric.

Speaking of calculations, if you want to see the math for yourself (both NCSS and the Playoff Points), you can view those spreadsheets here. Let me know if some of my math seems off; human error is certainly possible (either I miscalculate a team for their NCSS, or I could click the wrong cell for Playoff Points because formulas make my life so much easier). Obviously, looking at the rankings, it clearly favors the mid majors, largely because I give higher marks to playing Power conference teams as part of your non-conference slate, especially if you go on the road.

Thursday starts the week's slate of games, with a Pac 12, SEC and Sun Belt matchup all on the docket. Good luck to your teams this week!