COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 6

Five weeks of games have provided plenty of drama and excitement so far this NFL season. I've actually gotten to watch a decent amount so far with my office televising all Bears games on the wall of TV's. It's been awesome for them to do. I just don't know how much of Sunday's games I'll get to see as I fly out to California tonight.

And so far, collectively we've been pretty good at prognosticating results against the spread as part of this coalition. Last week we probably had the most picks in common, only disagreeing on two games, but I picked both correctly to widen my lead to 7. But any groupthink that prevailed last week is gone this week as we disagree on 8 games this time. Could be a tumultuous week. Let's get to it.

Thursday Night
New York Giants @ Chicago Bears (-7.5)
Lucas: Bears. Quick turnaround for these guys, but if there were ever a game that screams "Pick the Bears! Turnovers ahoy!", it's this one. My goodness, the Giants are awful and don't have me believing the "Nobody believes in us!" angle anymore.
Nathaniel: Bears. Turns out this year there are actually good reasons for nobody to believe in the Giants.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills (+7.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Part of me just feels like this is the game for Andy Dalton to get back on track, large point spread be damned.
Nathaniel: Bills. Solely because I don’t trust Andy Dalton on the road. Or at home, either, if we’re being honest. Sign me up for another episode of the Thaddeus Lewis Experiment!
Detroit Lions @ Cleveland Browns (+2.5)
Lucas: Browns. Am I really trusting Brandon Weeden here? I mean, look at that face! Then again, I think I'd trust him over a team full of thugs (see what I did there, Bill Ford?), one of whom would go so far as to demean college band members for no reason.

Nathaniel: Lions. The thing that kept coming back to me when thinking about this pick is how hard it is to imagine Cleveland being 4-2. They’ve improved this year, but they don’t feel THAT improved. Also, more importantly, I’m assuming and hoping that Megatron will be playing. If he isn’t, it will magically become 10,000% easier to imagine the Browns being 4-2.
Green Bay Packers @ Baltimore Ravens (+3.5)
Lucas: Packers. I know, Baltimore is at home, and that prospect scares me, but Eddie Lacy is looking pretty good now that he's healthy. I do worry about the Clay Matthews injury though.
Nathaniel: Packers. My gut’s telling me the Ravens are nearly impossible to beat at home, but my brain’s telling me I’d feel a whole lot dumber if I didn’t pick the considerably better team. Cognitive dissonance is the best!
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. Big spread, but I think the Chiefs are legit. Oakland... not so much.
Nathaniel: Raiders. Oakland’s tied for fourth in rushing yards per attempt offensively; Kansas City’s tied for 31st in rushing yards per attempt allowed defensively. That matchup may lead to the Raiders covering a fairly high line.
St. Louis Rams @ Houston Texans (-7.5)
Lucas: Rams. I get that the Rams haven't been very good the last couple weeks either, but why, exactly, are the Texans favored by this much when they haven't scored a touchdown in the last 6 quarters? Also, tell Matt Schaub that I won't visit his house, but I want bacon, ketchup, deep fried pickles, pepperoni, provolone, and bacon a second time on my Pick Six Burger.
Nathaniel: Texans. The Rams pass defense is tied for third-worst in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Allowed. So if Matt Schaub starts throwing pick-sixes against THEM, too? Time to go to T.J. Yates because Schaub may have just gone past the edge of Jake Delhomme.
Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
Lucas: Vikings. Maybe Jaaaash Freeman is the answer in the Cities, maybe he isn't. We won't know this week, but I think Matt Cassel/Christian Ponder can do enough this week.
Nathaniel: Vikings. I hate the Panthers. They’re probably better than the Vikings and will end up winning now that I picked against them, but I’d rather lose that way 100 times out of 100 than put my faith in them and then watch Cam Newton bumble-eff his way to six points against a bad team. Have I mentioned that I hate the Panthers?
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets (-2.5)
Lucas: Jets. I kind of feel bad for Mike Tomlin, but this Steelers team is awful. Part of me is kind of amazed I'm taking Geno Smith and company over Big Ben.
Nathaniel: Jets. Originally, when the line was posted as Pittsburgh being favored by 2.5 points, this was a no-brainer. At its current line, it’s slightly more of a brainer but not by much.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5)
Lucas: Eagles. How long till Greg Schiano gets told to walk the plank, only he doesn't want to and gets shot out of the cannons? And why do I have such a fascination with those cannons? Huh.
Nathaniel: Eagles. Here’s another reason not to believe in Mike Glennon: the only quarterbacks in NFL history whose heights were above 6’6” and saw significant playing time in the NFL are the immortal Dan McGwire, Frank Patrick and Sonny Gibbs. How did Greg Schiano and Mark Dominik not get fired over the bye week again?
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos (-27.5)
Lucas: Broncos.

Nathaniel: Jaguars. I can’t do it. I just can’t do it. Maybe if Gabbert was still starting, but Chad Henne’s too competent for me to give 27.5 points to any NFL team. The Jaguars only loosely classify as one, but that still counts.
Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks (-13.5)
Lucas: Titans. So why am I not afraid of a 28 point spread, but hesitant on a spread half the size? Tennessee is way better than Jacksonville. Then again, this is in Seattle, where the Seahawks are otherworldly... crap.
Nathaniel: Seahawks. Here’s where the Seahawks win by 20+ points again and remind everyone why they should pee their pants if they’re unfortunate enough to have to play up there this season.
New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots (-2.5)
Lucas: Saints. "Why game not in New Orleans? Gronk want party with pretty ladies on Street of Bourbon and do kegstand. GRONK NO CARE THAT GRONK HAVE FOUR SURGERIES ALREADY AND MIGHT NEED ANOTHER! YO SOY FIESTA!"

Nathaniel: Saints. Really tough call, particularly considering that Gronk will likely be back for the Pats. There’s no question that Drew Brees has been in much better sync with his receivers so far than Tom Brady, though, so I’m going to have to base my pick off of that.
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-11.5)
Lucas: 49ers. Kaepernick has had a bit of a regression to his numbers this year other than the Green Bay game, but I think they have enough firepower to take care of the Cardinals this week at home. It's hard to get a reading on those guys though. And yes, I'm sticking with this pick despite Aldon Smith getting arrested.
Nathaniel: 49ers. It’s starting to look like the 49ers’ disaster against the Colts a couple weeks ago was partly a fluke and partly a function of how good the Colts are. The flaws that appeared in Week 3 don’t appear anywhere near as glaring now and it seems safe to call the 49ers one of the top teams in the league again.
Sunday Night
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys (-5.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. Okay, yeah, Tony Romo has a tendency to turn the ball over at the worst possible times. But he always seems to have Dallas in a position to win games, and he pretty much went blow for blow with Peyton Manning on Sunday. Against a crappy defense? Have fun, Washington.
Nathaniel: Redskins. These teams look pretty even, right down to the above-average offenses and terrible defenses. Give me the points.
Monday Night
Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers (+1.5)
Lucas: Colts. Suddenly I think I can get back on the Colts bandwagon. They're starting to resist all screams of regression to be pretty good. They could possibly even overtake Houston for control of the division again!
Nathaniel: Chargers. Now the Colts definitely ARE good this year, there’s no doubt about that. But are they really 5-1 good? Part of me still thinks this start is just a little too good to be true.
Records So Far
Lucas: 46-31 (9-5 last week)
Nathaniel: 39-38 (7-7 last week)