Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Looking Ahead: 2013 NFL QB Power Rankings

I spent most of my weekend at home sick and missed out on getting to North Central for basketball, but I was feeling better on Sunday in time to watch what really turned out to be a fun Super Bowl. I'm happy for Ray Lewis getting to go out with a ring, and given the whining out of San Francisco and 49er fans around the country. Short, simple note: given A), the way the officials called the whole game; and B), the fact that there was definitely some mutual contact on that 4th and goal play, it was a good no call. The players were allowed to play (maybe to a fault, given some of the fighting that occurred) and in a mutual contact situation, don't throw a flag. Simple as that. Baltimore clearly outplayed San Francisco for most of the game and made the critical last stand at the end.

So with the NFL season now complete and I look for other stuff to write about, I was finally coaxed into a thought I had been having when I saw ESPN's SportsNation having fans rank the 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL (I'm assuming as of Week 17 for the non-playoff teams). SportsNation collectively showed a pretty good knowledge of the quarterbacks, and you can see their picks compared to mine here. I will go through my list below. I place a pretty high priority on postseason success, some of which relies on more than the quarterback, but at the same time quarterback play is a major indicator of how good a team is.

Ironically, Nathaniel had the same idea for today. It's like we're best friends or something.

Like Bill Simmons did with his QB rankings, I will put them in tiers, only I'm basing mine on quarterbacks from my Madden Franchise Mode that I am now a full 7 seasons through. The stats I include below (coming soon) for each tier are based on actual quarterback play over the course of these players' time in this virtual NFL.

The Vince Young Tier
These guys are the best of the best, and while obviously not putting up quite as mind boggling of numbers as Madden Vince Young does, their numbers are still impressive. These are the unquestioned "Elite" quarterbacks.

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Tom Brady
3. Drew Brees
4. Peyton Manning

I'm still including Brees in this list despite SN's lack of inclusion as the best in the league. For the most part, you can swap these guys around in any order and it would make sense. My ranking Rodgers #1 is largely bias on my part, but I can easily see arguments for Brady or even Manning as #1 in the league right now.

The Omar Carey Tier
Washington drafted this guy a few years back and has really developed into an elite quarterback in Madden, leading the Redskins to become one of the elite teams in the NFC along with Green Bay, Arizona and Carolina. Carey can help offense put up a lot of points and easily get you to the playoffs. In a world where Vince Young isn't putting up ungodly numbers, Carey would probably fit in the above tier, but would also provide an apt comparison to these guys.

5. Joe Flacco
6. Ben Roethlisberger
7. Eli Manning
8. Matt Ryan

I think most people would now call all these guys "elite" as well, with the possible exception of Matt Ryan (who, in fairness, I might include now that he got the playoff monkey off his back with their win over Seattle and his brilliance on those 2 passes to get into field goal range). Given the right team around these guys, you can easily win a Super Bowl with pretty much any of them.

The Tim Tebow Tier
In an alternate universe, Tim Tebow is a pretty legitimate NFL quarterback. Who knew? After 5 years as Vince Young's backup he was allowed to test the free agent waters (his rookie deal was fairly cap friendly, and I wasn't going to have a pair of $10 million quarterbacks on my roster, ultimately going with the guy who had a better arm). While Tebow still has some accuracy issues (Madden 11 was onto something...) he still brings a lot of great things to the table, in particular his running, reaching the Super Bowl every year in his career (he's 1-2 as a starter, winning in 2010 with Green Bay after Vince Young tore his shoulder). He's still fairly young and has shown potential in his career, which matches him up well with these young guns.

9. Colin Kaepernick
10. Robert Griffin III
11. Russell Wilson
12. Andrew Luck
13. Cam Newton

Because of how dynamic all these guys are, they seem to be the future of the quarterback position in the NFL. Tebow himself would probably get put in the lower half, but not too low as he has shown flashes of brilliance, but not consistently enough to really know for sure.

The Chauncey Armstrong Tier
Chauncey has kind of... alternated quarterback duties with another guy for a while, but he's put up decent numbers during his time. And the Saints did make the playoffs with him at the helm in my most recent season, so that's something. These guys are all okay, but have some flaws or just aren't as exciting as the above guys.

14. Matthew Stafford
15. Andy Dalton
16. Matt Schaub
17. Jay Cutler
18. Josh Freeman
19. Sam Bradford

I figured somewhere in the middle was a good spot for Cutler, who's a good quarterback but has issues with poor offensive lines and for whatever reason being compelled to throw the football to Green Bay defenders. Stafford has stayed healthy and put up good numbers, but Megatron is also a freak of nature. Most of the rest of these guys are pretty good at what they do, even Bradford to an extent but he's clearly at the bottom of this tier.

The Elijah Jones Tier
Jones is an okay quarterback but has had issues and isn't slated as a starter anywhere. Some people wonder how these guys still have their jobs but they're more secure than a lot of the lower ranked quarterbacks.

20. Philip Rivers
21. Christian Ponder
22. Jake Locker
23. Tony Romo
24. Michael Vick
25. Ryan Fitzpatrick
26. Chad Henne
27. Carson Palmer

Locker might be a bit high, but he's got the athleticism to possibly be a little higher someday. It's amazing to see how Rivers has fallen (I think he brushed me off like he brushed off Norv this year) and a guy like Romo just fits here: puts up good numbers, but is prone to making dumb mistakes at the worst times (see Week 17 vs. Washington). Ponder could move up if he improves again this offseason, and Vick is just done.

The Jim Bonds Tier
Bonds was the 2016 #1 pick by the Detroit Lions, so you know he has potential, but he struggled his first year. In fairness, his first game was against my Packers and those 2 games accounted for probably at least a dozen of his picks and a good 25 sacks that he took. Sorry I'm not sorry.

28. Ryan Tannehill
29. Matt Cassell
30. Brandon Weeden

Yeah, Cassell is a veteran and has had chances to show 2008 wasn't a fluke and he hasn't delivered. I do think somewhere there might be a hidden bit of juice left. We'll see. The other two guys for in perfectly. Especially you, Brandon Weeden.

The Jay Cutler* Tier
With all due apologies to the real Jay, it could be worse as evidenced above. The worst season there was 2015 where he threw several picks and didn't throw a touchdown until the final week of the season. And the best part about this was that Jay was fantasy drafted by... the Browns. The lesson, as always, God hates Cleveland.

31. Mark Sanchez
32. Ryan Lindley

This tier should need no explanation save for my obligation to football fans everywhere:
(Thank God Rex is still coaching the Jets and likely sticking to Sanchez.)

If you want to get into quarterbacks who weren't on the ESPN poll and where they'd fit, let's go here.

  • Kirk Cousins: Jim Bonds Tier
  • Matt Flynn: Jim Bonds Tier
  • Nick Foles: Jim Bonds Tier
  • Blaine Gabbert: Jay Cutler* Tier (but definitely ahead of Sanchez)
  • JaMarcus Russell (if he returns): Eddy Curry Memorial "Point-Fat***" Tier (Come on, he needs his own tier and the joke was there.)
  • John Skelton: Jay Cutler* Tier (and DEFINITELY around where Lindley is.)
  • Alex Smith: Chauncey Armstrong Tier
  • Tim Tebow: Jim Bonds Tier

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