NFL Conference Championship Preview

It's been kind of fun, in addition to watching the playoff games so far (where this, objectively, was one of the better weekends of playoff football) has been the head coaching carousel given how many teams let their leaders go. I'm thrilled that Andy Reid and his clock mismanagement antics can still be celebrated, that offensive bosses now have a chance to run some shows elsewhere, and hopefully make jokes about Marc Trestman as the new Bears head honcho.

So before I get into my predictions for Sunday, my wish for him, other than medicore finishes for the next 4 years or so because I'm a Packer fan and love trolling Bears fans, is that I get as much mileage out of "Now remember, the goal of the game is to get the ball into the endzone, and to prevent your opponent from doing the same," as I got out of "We're getting ready to start the first quarter of the first quarter of our season. We like our team. Jay is our quarterback. We have a lot of football left to play."

As was the case the past few weeks, I'm picking both winners and against the spread. Spreads taken from footballlocks.com.

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (+4)

Small footnote about my Packers' season: I'm disappointed by how it ended, but not mad about it. Green Bay lost to the better team on the road. It was frustrating at the time, but it shows where some changes might need to be made (offensive line, maybe a little bit on the front 7, and in some ways I want Dom Capers gone unless he learned from Saturday, "You know, if we're going up against the read-option, I should probably have my outside linebackers contain the quarterback so he doesn't run against my 1-5-5 package I'm sending out on 3rd and 2. I'M A GENIUS!")

Really, it's weird to think that out of all the quarterbacks that run the read option in today's NFL, it's Colin Kaepernick of all people that has his team in the conference championship round, but then again when you look at the talent around him, it's not so surprising. The Niner defense kept Aaron Rodgers largely in check on Saturday in a game some people were pegging as an "Eff You" game for him, so credit has to go there. Overall, this Niner team is probably the most complete team left in the playoffs. Heck, they were probably the most complete team coming in other than worries about how Kaepernick would handle the big stage.

Meanwhile, Atlanta just followed the recipe they've been following all year against a Seattle team that repeated the same strategy they had against Washington: "Atlanta takes a big lead as Seattle doesn't wake up early enough. Seattle storms back to take the lead. Falcons win thanks to the weird voodoo magic prevalent in the Georgia Dome like they have all season long."

If there's any one thing that really gives Atlanta an edge, it's that they have home field. After Sunday, I'm even more convinced that there's some weird magical powers in that building that enables the Falcons to pull games out of their behinds. But Atlanta was able to run well last week, and they're probably going to have a tougher time against San Francisco running the ball since I doubt Jacquizz Rodgers will truck anyone on that defense.

Either way, Matt Ryan has his first playoff win and his team came up big. I'm just not convinced they can pull this one out. Though for gambling picking purposes, I'll take them because of that weird voodoo magic.

Prediction: 49ers 24, Falcons 21

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-9)
2012 has been a season of illogical victories. Nothing embodied this better than #Chuckstrong in Indy, but Atlanta's voodoo magic at home and now the Ray Lewis farewell tour seem to be taking shape as well. Granted, I think Baltimore's presence here is more based on TERRIBLE pass defense by Denver and John Fox's decision to go EXTREMELY conservative with Peyton Manning at the end of both the 1st and 2nd halves in that game. What can't be understated though is Ray Lewis being hooked up to the rejuvenation machine so far this postseason and helping lead his team thus far. Meanwhile, Joe Flacco is trying to climb the quarterback chart.

Baltimore won back in Week 3 on a last second field goal at home, but this is a different Patriots team. Tom Brady is still Tom Brady, even though he hasn't consistently had his full complement of weapons (and is now without Gronk the rest of the way). Even so, that Blur offense is excellent, and Stevan Ridley provides excellent balance. What could pose a problem is the inconsistency of New England's defense. If Flacco can go off again and Ray Rice has a decent day, this Ravens team could pull an upset. I think it'll be close, but I think Brady and the Blur offense will be just a little too much.

Prediction: Patriots 28, Ravens 20

Record So Far
5-3 straight up (1-3 last week)
138-126 against the spread (2-2 last week, 4-4 playoffs)