NFL Division Round Predictions

Vince Young about to throw a TD to Gerard Byham.

Now that the college season is done I can turn most of my attention to the NFL Playoffs. I'm almost to that in Madden (the old 2011 version, not the 2013 version where I would have signed Kyle Fiedorowicz to be my 3rd tight end. Alas.) Even so, 7 seasons in I'm still going strong. You can read this alternate reality over on Someone Still Loves You, Alberto Riveron as my spoils for winning our Pigskin Pick 'Em contest.

While the wild card games didn't produce much in the way of unexpected results or intrigue from a lot of people around, it was nonetheless an interesting weekend for football as we approach the Divisional Round. Based on the lines as of Tuesday, the consensus seemed to be that the AFC had 2 clear cut favorites while the NFC was a lot more open, something I can't really argue with. Going by the same formula as last week, I'm going to dissect each game and give thoughts not only on who's going to win, but on the point spread as well.

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-9)

Opening note regarding Ray Lewis: Fantastic way to go out last weekend in Baltimore.Say what you will about his past legal troubles but the man is one of the best middle linebackers of all time and someone who is a lot of fun to watch and made his teammates better.

That out of the way, when these two teams met a few weeks ago in Baltimore, Denver beat them pretty handily 34-17. Baltimore is pretty good, especially at home, so to lose by a couple touchdowns there is significant. Granted, the Ravens defense was also not at full strength. At the same time, I'm not entirely sure Jim Caldwell was the answer for the offensive woes Baltimore has had.

Denver is showing impeccable balance now that Peyton Manning has had a full regular season to figure things out. And at home, where Mile High has a pretty decent home field advantage (I'm sure it had something to do with the wild card win last year in addition to TEEEEEEBOOOOOWWW!) I think the Broncos are a safe bet to advance.

Prediction: Broncos 24, Ravens 13

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

I'm kind of amazed Aaron Rodgers hasn't played at Candlestick yet in his NFL career, so there's a bit of a homecoming angle that I think might play a bit of a role but not as huge as a lot of other experts are making it out to be.

The biggest factor for this game will be the health of Justin Smith. As of yesterday he was still listed as questionable for this game. Even if he does play, what level is he at? If he's nowhere near himself Green Bay doesn't have to double him all game and it allows for better protection from Aldon Smith. Green Bay also has something of a running game to keep the Niners honest and open up some Aaron Rodgers play action.

The offense will also provide an interesting look with Colin Kapernick under center instead of Alex Smith like we saw in Week 1. This may open up that read option playbook for the Niners since the Vikings were able to tear Green Bay up a little bit with it. Then again, Frank Gore is good but he's no Adrian Peterson.

All in all, it comes down to health and fatigue on San Francisco's defense. If Rodgers can stay protected and upright and Green Bay is able to run with moderate success, they can easily steal this one. Should be a fun game.

Prediction: Packers 21, 49ers 20

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

This is a hard one to predict. Seattle finally snapped a road playoff losing streak that included my favorite non-Super Bowl memory. This Seahawks team is for real, and I'm not 100% sure what to think about this Falcons team. They were pretty much a wire-to-wire top team in the NFC based on record, but the advanced metrics show some flaws. This, combined with Atlanta being Atlanta in the postseason has me leaning toward the road team here. Seattle shows the characteristics of a lot of recent champions: go on the road, beat people the experts say you aren't supposed to beat, win a title. I also think we're due some karmic retribution.

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Falcons 14

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-9.5)

Okay, so Houston took care of business against a team they should have beaten last week, but once again the looked less than impressive in doing it. Combine this with how they backed into the playoffs and how they got killed in New England once already, it doesn't look good for these guys. New England's defense is still a little suspect, but I think it's enough to get by a struggling team. Besides, we have to have the 1100th installment of Brady-Manning in the AFC playoffs. It just isn't the same without that.

Prediction: Patriots 34, Texans 17




Record So Far
4-0 straight up (4-0 last week)
136-124 against the spread (2-2 playoffs/last week)