NFL Wild Card Round Predictions

How's this for an opening post for 2013? The NFL playoffs are almost underway, and there are 4 exciting games on the docket. Last year I predicted the entire course of the NFL playoffs right off the bat. That didn't exactly work out too well. Instead I'm going to take the sane approach of taking it one week at a time. I'm also going to pick against the spread as well, just for fun. Since ESPN's Pigskin Pick 'Em is done, all lines are being obtained from FootballLocks.com.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-4.5)

Hmm, this seems familiar... the biggest difference from this rematch of last year's Wild Card round is that Houston actually has its starting quarterback this time. The Andy Dalton/AJ Green combo has 2 full regular seasons of experience under their belt now and they've been really good of late, winning 7 of their last 8 (granted, the only win over a playoff team was Baltimore just this past weekend). Meanwhile Houston has taken a bit of a nosedive, losing 3 of 4 and succumbing to the strongest use of #Chuckstrong powers all season this past week. This Houston team is talented but doesn't have much momentum. I think with a home crowd behind them and relative health, the Texans can advance again.

Prediction: Texans 27, Bengals 17

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-8)

My dad was gracious about his team's victory on Sunday and getting into the playoffs... mainly because he thinks Green Bay will smoke Minnesota this weekend. I'm not that optimistic. Truth be told, I'm a little terrified of getting Minnesota again because of how well they played in the win over the Pack. But then I take a step back and remember the following.

1. From Nathaniel's pick last week: "Seems like the teams that control their own playoff destiny AND have a home game the final week of the season usually take care of business, if only because they're being buoyed by 68,000 raucous souls who desperately want their team to get shellacked by twenty-seven the next week in the Wild-Card Round."
2. Playing off of that, Christian Ponder played about as flawless a game as he possibly could, something he hasn't done a lot of this season. Can we really expect him to follow it up with an even better performance?
3. Green Bay continues to get healthier. Jordy Nelson had a great game (though might sit this one out),but  Randall Cobb is expected to play, and Charles Woodson sounds like he will finally return.
4. Green Bay has struggled recently at home during the playoffs, the notable exception being that wonderful game in the snow against Seattle 5 years ago. While this will play into Minnesota's hands on the ground, I'm not sure Christian Ponder can handle January at the Tundra.

Considering Green Bay lost on a last second field goal (in fairness, to a Vikings team that deserved to win that game) on the road, you take the above factors combined with a game being played at Lambeau and it sounds like a recipe for a Green Bay win. They just won't cover, since I think 8 points is a lot to give for a game between division rivals and that Adrian Peterson fellow continues to scare the ever-living you know what out of me every time he touches the ball.

Prediction: Packers 27, Vikings 20

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

I've spent all season praising the powers of #Chuckstrong. It's prevalent, moreso than I imagined possible when the Packers traveled to Indy. Since that game I can't pick against it, at least not at Lucas Oil. In Baltimore, it's another story. The Ravens defense wasn't as strong as it's been in recent years, largely due to age, but they're likely getting some big playmakers back, including Terrell Suggs (missed the Cincy game) and Bernard Karmell Pollard (borrowing from Simmons because it makes Pollard sound more awesome), and maybe even Ray Lewis. This Indy team based on a lot of advanced metrics has not been as good as their 11-5 record would suggest. It's bound to come back to bite them sooner or later.

On another note, thank you for being a fun player to watch, Ray. Whenever Baltimore is done and you hang it up, I give you one last standing ovation as a thank you for being one of the best middle linebackers of all time.

Prediction: Ravens 30, Colts 17

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins (+3)

Obviously I'm most looking forward to the Green Bay-Minnesota game because of my rooting interest, but is probably the most exciting game of the weekend. No one (except maybe Simmons) expected the Seahawks to have the kind of year they've had on both sides of the ball, and the Redskins advanced sooner than a lot of people expected, especially given how banged up they got early on. This biggest question for this game is which offense makes a mistake first. That team likely loses. Even knowing just how efficient Washington has been on offense (tops in Offensive Adjusted Yards per Play, 4th in Offensive Predicted Yards per Play), if RGIII is still being bothered by that knee, Seattle might be able to get away with one. Barely. This is going to be fun.

Prediction: Seahawks 29, Redskins 28

Record So Far
0-0 straight up (didn't predict weekly scores, just spreads)
134-122 against the spread during the regular season (6-10 last week)