College Football Non-Conference Power Rankings: Week 14

COAS is back after a holiday break. Hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving wherever you spent it. In my case, a trip to the frigid north was in order, but I enjoyed time with family up in North Dakota (and I did get to see sizable chunks of all 3 Thanksgiving NFL games but not much else) and getting to show my fiancee around my parents' hometown.

But while I was adventuring through the frozen tundra and enjoying adventures with her and a certain adorable alpaca, college football went on. While at the D-III level my North Central Cardinals saw their season come to a close (the lesson: you usually don't win turning it over 7 times), the D-I level brought continued excitement and sealed a couple of undefeated seasons. But there are still some games left on the docket this week and with the exception of a makeup game from the opening week all are in conference, so here's one final look at how each conference scheduled their seasons out. I will also include any major games being played that have playoff implications.

1. WAC (7.57)- No change.
2. Sun Belt (7.2)- South Alabama visits Hawaii.
3. Conference-USA (6.75)- No change. UCF visits Tulsa for the C-USA Championship Game.
4. MAC (6.62)- No change. NIU plays Kent State for the MAC Championship Game.
5. Big East (6.5)- No change. Louisville visits Rutgers for a de facto Big East Championship Game. (A Rutgers win guarantees the Knights the conference title and a playoff berth. A Louisville win forces a 3-way tie with Rutgers and Syracuse, which I believe would be settled by the BCS standings.)
6. Mountain West (5.6)- Hawaii hosts South Alabama. Boise State visits Nevada for a possible MWC title game. (A Nevada win guarantees Fresno State the conference title and a playoff berth. A Boise State win forces a 3-way tie with Fresno State and San Diego State. The exact tiebreaker for this scenario is unknown.)
7. ACC (4.67)- No change. Florida State plays Georgia Tech for the ACC Championship Game.
8. Big Ten (4.58)- No change. Nebraska plays Wisconsin for the Big Ten Championship Game.
9. SEC (3.64)- No change. Alabama plays Georgia for the SEC Championship Game.
10. Pac-12 (3.17)- Oregon State hosts an FCS team (game scheduled for the opening week made up this weekend). UCLA visits Stanford for the Pac-12 Championship Game.
11. Big XII (2.6)- No change. Texas visits Kansas State and Oklahoma visits TCU. (A Kansas State win or Oklahoma loss gives Kansas State the Big XII Championship. A Kansas State loss AND Oklahoma win gives Oklahoma the Big XII Championship.)

These conference title games will shore up all the uncertainties that have been in play for the last several weeks. I've had several weeks where teams have been in and out just due to ties and varying ways of how to break them, or teams in the lead losing to let other teams in. This week will put all that to bed and the 16 team field that will battle it out online (since they won't match up on the field due to greed and stupidity) will come to completion.  But if the season ended today, with conference records currently deciding champions even in conferences where title games are played, here's how the 11-champion, 5-at large team field would be filled. Last week's rankings can be found here.

1. Notre Dame (12-0, At Large, NCSS: 26, LW: 1): With the win over USC, they seal themselves as the overall #1 seed and the road to the title game runs through South Bend. So many people have spent the entire season talking about how the Irish are "overrated" or what have you, but they earned this top spot against some pretty tough competition and survived a lot of good teams' best shots.
2. Alabama (11-1, SEC Champion, NCSS: 3, LW: 5): Big reason why we need a playoff: I had to really struggle to decide between Bama and the #5 seed given that they have identical records both overall and in the SEC, and each team's one loss came to a 2-loss team in their division. Considering Bama probably played better overall in their loss to Texas A&M than their rival for this spot did, I'm taking Bama as the temporary title holder until the title game gets played.
3. Kansas State (10-1, Big 12 Champion, NCSS: 2, LW: 3): I'm still underwhelmed by their out of conference slate and that 28 point loss to Baylor stings. I'm just not sure I can seed anyone else higher at this stage. Even so, I think KSU's playoff berth is safe unless they get killed by Texas.
4. Stanford (10-2, Pac-12 Champion, NCSS: 5, LW: 4): Take away one loss, and they almost certainly move up to #3 at worst, and possibly overtake Alabama (and maybe even the #1 slot if they win that Notre Dame game). Their schedule isn't terrible by BCS-era standards (hence the pretty good NCSS) and the lack of a cupcake always helps. I'd call this team a dark horse for the championship... assuming they take care of business again against UCLA.
5. Georgia (11-1, At Large, NCSS: 3, LW: 2): Not really Georgia's fault they fell from the designated SEC champion spot (unless you can blame them for getting trounced by South Carolina earlier this year), but they will likely get a spot in the playoffs regardless of how the title game goes. Whichever team loses will likely fall a few places from this #5 spot, but probably not so far as to cause major problems.
6. Florida (11-1, At Large, NCSS: 4, LW: 7): That win over Florida State helped their resume and also has their NCSS boosted to a higher level. Granted they played one more out of conference game than the #7 team did, but Florida generally did more with their non-conference games than the other candidate did. It's all but impossible to argue degree of wins and losses between these two.
7. Oregon (11-1, At Large, NCSS: 1, LW: 6): That Stanford loss hurt, and it's hard to bump the Ducks down a spot when they took care of business, but I have to examine full body of work, and Oregon's non-conference slate just didn't cut it compared to Florida's. Tough decision to make unfortunately.
8. Nebraska (10-2, Big Ten Champion, NCSS: 4, LW: 8): Nebraska has taken care of business throughout the B1G except for the Ohio State game (OSU by the way has an NCSS of 5, which might have been enough to overtake even Notre Dame had they been postseason eligible). But the Huskers have probably the best resume out of the remaining conference champions, and thus deserve a home game.
9. Kent State (11-1, MAC Champion, NCSS: 7, LW: 9): I continue to have to break another tough tie and give the Golden Flashes the conference title until Friday when they battle NIU for the berth here. Whoever wins that game might even earn a home date considering possible drops from above in other conference championship games.
10. Rutgers (9-2, Big East Champion, NCSS: 6, LW: 10): That loss to Pitt hurts big time and also opens Pandora's Box a little bit. For now this team is entrenched in the title spot with a decent schedule and some good wins, but a couple tough losses have them hitting the road in the first round as of now.
11. Northern Illinois (11-1, At Large, NCSS: 5, LW: NR): As the only other 1-loss team in the nation I think as of right now they'd deserve a bid. It's been tough to break the tie between them and Kent State, and with Louisville losing again this past weekend it opened a door. That conference title game looms large, as whoever loses might not make the dance with having to look at so many other 2-loss teams. Stay tuned.
12. Florida State (10-2, ACC Champion, NCSS: 3, LW: 11): Considering that loss, dropping to 12th isn't too bad. It was against a likely playoff-bound Florida team, so the drop wasn't bad, but even with that game the non-conference slate is still way too underwhelming. If the Noles lose the ACC title game to Georgia Tech, it's likely they wouldn't even see the playoffs. No pressure.
13. Utah State (10-2, WAC Champion, NCSS: 9, LW: 13): Their berth to the playoffs is officially locked up with a perfect run through the WAC. When you combine that with the fact that their 2 losses came by a combined 5 points, that makes their season look even better. I'd still definitely keep them behind FSU, but it merits some thinking.
14. Arkansas State (8-3, Sun Belt Champion, NCSS: 6, LW: 15): They only have 2 losses at this stage to playoff teams (Oregon and Nebraska) and play to lock up their spot this weekend. The scary thought that I didn't realize until now was that if Middle Tennessee wins, there would be a playoff team that lost to an FCS team. Hold me.
15. Fresno State (9-3, MWC Champion, NCSS: 6, LW: NR): With Boise State idle and both Fresno State and San Diego State winning, Boise drops out for now and Fresno State holds the head-to-head tiebreaker. This one could easily change again. Sit tight.
16. Tulsa (9-3, Conference-USA Champion, NCSS: 6, LW: 16): For the purposes of this projection, despite the loss the Golden Hurricanes suffered to SMU over the weekend they're in a tie with UCF, who they beat already but also have to face again for the conference title. Should be another fun one.

Teams that dropped out of the playoffs from last week: Louisville, Boise State. Teams listed above in italics have clinched a berth in the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

So only 2 spots are guaranteed at this point, and while most of these other teams are probably in, there's a reason they play the games. With conference titles up for grabs this weekend, I can finalize everything for next week's post and take a couple weeks to get everything set up. For now, if you think a team that I didn't include as an at-large deserves to get in over a team I put in or think I mis-seeded a team, you can comment below or send me a note on Twitter. Enjoy one final weekend of college football before bowl season!