2013 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 14 Seedings

Happy December! Hope you all had a good Thanksgiving weekend full of family (first and foremost), food and football. And really, the football part (Green Bay getting smoked aside) was amazing.

I didn't watch much football this weekend with a lot going on, but I was thrilled Saturday to see my North Central Cardinals earn a trip back to the quarterfinals of the D-III playoffs for the first time since 2010. And the Death to the BCS Playoffs get quite a shakeup as well. I didn't watch much of the big-time action this weekend, but I did see the end of the Iron Bowl. Holy crap.

With Alabama and a couple other key teams losing, there is a definite shakeup in the overall standings, which impacts the playoff seedings compared to last week. As a refresher, the Death to the BCS Playoffs are based on the system in the book whose cover is seen here, where a 16 team playoff is built from all conference champions plus at-large bids. I'm acting as a one-man selection committee who is giving tentative conference titles based on records and filling in the at larges from there. Seedings are based on a review of each team's resume, with help from a few formulas. I include my Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS, for which you can see the most up to date info based on conferences here), Playoff Points (PP, basically showing how many wins the teams you've beaten have as something of a "strength of schedule" metric), and then computer rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin (SAG, found here, using the rankings in order of the list) and the late David Rothman (FACT, found here, though his formula is public domain and rankings based on his algorithm is compiled by someone at UCLA) which use margin of victory as a factor.

So with all the chaos and math in mind, let's see how things unfold.

Game Notes: Benedictine University @ North Central College (11/26/13)

Final Score
NCC 102, Benedictine 98

Game Summary
Assistant SID Drew Sauer stole my line about "a tale of two halves", but it was completely true in this game. The Cardinals (3-1) took a couple small leads early, but the Eagles (1-3) stormed back and went on a 9-0 run to go up 18-10. The Cardinals would battle back to tie and even take a couple more small leads before another Benedictine run of 12 straight points in about 90 seconds. The Eagles would lead by as many as 14 before settling into a 12 point gap at the break. Whatever Michelle Roof said in the Cardinal locker room clearly had an impact, as they made small pushes to climb back into the game, taking a 68-67 lead with 12:26 left. Benedictine didn't go quietly despite the Cardinal outburst, even leading by 6 with 5:46 to play before back to back threes tied the game. Later, tied at 91, the Cardinals pulled away with a couple well-timed triples and decent free throw shooting to pick up their third win of the year.

Key Stats

• Kim Wilson (NCC): 6-14 FG (5-13 3PT)- 17 pts, 1 ast, 2 stl. Kim all but kept the Cardinals in the game in the second half with a good shooting effort. Even without a rebound, she also played pretty good defense. In her second start of the season, she was probably the key figure in this win, though there were plenty of others.
• Marion Boeck (NCC): 2-5 FG (all 3PT), 2-4 FT- 8 pts, 5 reb, 3 ast, 2 stl. Marion missed the first few games due to injury, but looked pretty good in her first game back. She got some key rebounds, with a couple coming in the last two minutes when it was a one-possession game, while also picking up one of her threes after a rebound to double the Cardinals lead. Huge to see from the lone senior on this squad.
• NCC: 7* charges drawn. The asterisk is used because it's unofficial (though honestly, I wish every place was like Aurora Christian where the charge was kept as an official stat). This Cardinal team drew an astounding five (five!) in the first half alone, which frustrated the hell out of Benedictine's coach. The Cardinals picked up a couple more early in the second half, and it obviously affected the Eagles, who ended up having to settle for pull up 5-footers instead of layups.

North Central System Watch

• NCC 3PT: 18-63 (28.6%). I mentioned in the season preview that if North Central could improve its three point shooting even a couple points to 28%, it could mean the difference between a win and a loss. And it really showed in this game. What astounded me was at halftime, the Cardinals had shot 7-38 from deep. It was bad. A lot of it had to do with the Eagles buckling down in a 2-3 zone, keeping a close eye on Larynn Shumaker and daring everyone else to shoot. Other than Kim Wilson, no one else was really hitting. But for whatever reason, they caught fire in the second half. Marion Boeck's two threes came in the second stanza, Maryssa Cladis all three of her triples after halftime, and Anita Sterling hit a couple as well. As a team, the Cardinals shot 11-25 from deep in the second half. If they can shoot that well over the course of a whole game... oh man.
• Benedictine Turnovers: 30. This is a season low so far for NCC to force, but for the Eagles it was a season high (and probably will remain so, given NCC's system). A few of these probably came on those charges, but the Cardinals also managed 15 steals. AnnMarie Bachmann led the way with three thefts, while four other Cardinals notched two (including last year's leader Bobbi Johns).

Final Thoughts

Photo taken by the NCC Sports Information Department.

I can't help but feel like this is a game last year's Cardinals would have lost. I feel like it still could have been, with somewhat shaky free throw shooting late (I blame that stupid rim on the west end of the court). But this team showed poise and never gave up despite a pretty sizable defecit in the first half. Like the Ripon game, the Cardinals should carry memories of this contest as they go forward this season. This game is a reminder that they can get hot at any time and they're capable of beating just about anyone on any given night. A long road trip looms after Thanksgiving, so I won't have any more reports until we near the end of 2013. Hopefully we'll be talking about a team on a long win streak as we approach the new year and another trip through the Gauntlet.

2013 NCAA FBS Rankings: Week 14

For a lot of teams, this is the end of their regular slate. For others, there's still the first weekend in December, whether it's for Game 12 or the conference title game. By then, a lot of the playoff teams will be decided, but seedings will still be up in the air.

Yesterday's batch of seedings can be found here, but today I'm focusing on one of the last sets of changes for conference's rankings of their out of conference scheduling. I think we're done with cupcakes so the SEC can come out from under its rock now. You know what, hold that thought.

For last week's rankings, click here.

2013 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 13 Seedings

Saturday was my 24th birthday, and that morning I tweeted out a short list of things I wanted from the sports world for my birthday. Of those, a couple came true (including North Central's football team moving on) while others didn't (I'm kind of mourning D-Rose's latest knee injury). But the one I forgot to throw out there was for the BCS to undergo a little chaos, just to eff with people. Sure enough, it happened.

Of course, the drawback for this is that I need to reevaluate my playoff seedings, which takes a little bit of work. Granted, I've been updating my numbers weekly, so that part isn't new, but needing to shift teams around is also a responsibility I need to take. Every week I've had to do some shifting around, some weeks more than others. This might be one of the more chaotic weeks. And last week was pretty chaotic.

As a refresher, the 16 team field is made up of the ten conference champions, plus six teams selected "at large", then seeded in regular fashion. The official criteria to select at large teams and seed the field isn't concrete, but is based off of a mixture of Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS, most recent data for conferences can be found here), Playoff Points (PP, basically the total number of wins of the teams you've beat), and computer rankings based on formulas created by Jeff Sagarin (SAG, found here, but I'm retweaking based on a closer reading of Sagarin's header and using the official "rating" column as his ranking, as it is a synthesis of his two other score-based rankings) and the late David Rothman (FACT, compiled by someone from UCLA, which can be found here). I also peer over schedules and try to decide as best I can how things should be seeded So without further ado, here's how I would seed a playoff if the season ended today.

COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 12

We're onto the last of the set of bye weeks in this NFL slate, so after this week, it's full-on 16 game sets. For Nathaniel, that might be a key difference in overcoming his defecit. It grew last week, as we both finished under .500, but I took two of the three games we differed on to push my lead back up to six games.

Obviously, as has happened so far this year, anything can actually happen on any given Sunday. And usually, it's gone against common wisdom (or at least, my and/or Nathaniel's wisdom) and has dragged us down to near .500 overall. So really, neither of us is any better at this than you would be flipping a coin to pick games, except our rationales behind them are usually way better than "This is what flipping a coin got me."

This week we disagree on a whopping seven different games, so my lead could be gone by Sunday night. I imagine not, but we're probably looking at a shift of a few games.

So without further ado, let's move on to this week's set of picks.

NCAA FBS Rankings: Week 13

It's been a busy past few days, with North Central basketball underway, and a lot of football this past weekend. I'm looking ahead now to the upcoming week of games, seeing as the action starts tonight with a couple MAC games. These are all factors that are important going forward to the last few weeks of the season for playoff purposes.

This week's rankings will have some big movement, if my spoiler from yesterday's playoff seedings post are any indication. If you want to see where we're at through the first 12 weeks of the season, you can view last week's schedule rankings here.

2013 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 12 Seedings

After a busy night on Saturday involving 7 hours of basketball and some personal chasing sandwiching it, I headed home and listened to the end of USC-Stanford. Oh man. Great finish, and it throws a major monkey wrench into the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

I think I've said it on here before, but I'll say it again: for all its flaws, big time college football does seem to have the best regular season. And I still think an expanded, 16 team playoff wouldn't diminish it in any way. After all, the other divisions (D-III, for example) all have playoffs, and that same idea of "Every game counts" holds true, more so than in the big time. The NCAA unveiled its D-III bracket yesterday, and like in this system I've been outlining here, basically all conference champions get an automatic bid (except for a couple that don't want to hand one out), and everyone else has to battle for 5 at large bids. It makes more games meaningful for everyone. Isn't this how it should be in the big time?

So with all the games from this past weekend done, here's how I would seed the 16-team playoff. All ten conference champions make it, plus six at-large teams. Selection criteria isn't set in stone, but involves Non-Conference Schedule Strength (up to date conference averages can be found here), Playoff Points (basically, you get points for however many wins the teams you beat have), and computer rankings that factor margin of victory done by Jeff Sagarin (I use the "BCS Predictor" set found here) and the late David Rothman (his formula is public domain, and someone who uses it compiles rankings here). There's no exact formula for combining these factors, just me as a one-man "selection committee". For last week's seedings, click here.