I'm doing this a little bit differently compared to prior years. In the past I've done a post for each division, and I used to do one a day for eight days leading up to the season. This year I'm condensing it down from divisions to one post for each of the two conferences. It will make these posts a little bit longer, so I'll try to keep my thoughts about the individual teams brief.
Part of the reason I'm condensing this down is due to time; I think it's easier to build out two long posts especially given when I had a chance to sit down and write this out. But I'm also doing this because in talks with Adam we may have another NFL preview feature coming to lead up to my favorite series in Confessions of a Sportscaster: the Pigskin Pick 'Em contest.
For now, let's take a look at the NFC.
NFC South
Common opponents on schedule: NFC West, AFC South
2018: 13-3 (1st), lost NFC Championship
The big talk down in the Big Easy this offseason was the missed pass interference call in the NFC title game that, while egregious, didn't directly lead to the Saints' overtime loss to the Rams. They bring back much of last year's group, including the ageless Drew Brees and one of the NFC's better defenses. They lose Mark Ingram, but Alvin Kamara is still around to wreak havoc, and Latavius Murray should be a solid counterpart. I see the Saints getting at least back to where they were last year... maybe farther.
2019 Prediction: 13-3
2018: 7-9 (3rd), missed playoffs
I think Carolina was better than their record stated last year, and there are decent pieces here. I still like Cam Newton, and he's still got some nice weapons in Christian McCaffrey and Greg Olsen. If everyone is healthy I think this team can compete, especially given their defense led by Luke Keuchly isn't too bad. I think it's enough to even make them a playoff team; just pray they don't get curbstomped in primetime again.
2019 Prediction: 10-6, Wild Card
2018: 7-9 (2nd), missed playoffs
The Falcons are one of those Legacy of Failure teams; I don't want to pin their fall over the past two seasons on the 28-3 collapse in Super Bowl LI, but they've come crashing back down to earth since then. The offense is still elite with Matt Ryan's bevy of targets in Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Mohammed Sanu, and Devonta Freeman, but the defense is suspect; they were pretty bad in every category in 2018, and none of the names on their depth chart really strike fear into your heart. Obviously with this offense they'll have some success, but I don't think it will be anywhere near enough.
2019 Prediction: 7-9
2018: 5-11 (4th), missed playoffs
I'm not high on the Bucs. When you have The Bakery as your starting quarterback, and your backup is Blaine Gabbert... you're gonna have a bad time. Yeah, Mike Evans and O.J. Howard are decent weapons, but that only does so much when you cough up the ball. Their defense leaves a lot to be desired as well, with really the only possible strong point being their front three (and even then part of that is just name power of guys like Jason Pierre-Paul and what's left of his hand. Not a lot to be excited about here.
2019 Prediction: 4-12
NFC West
Common opponents on schedule: NFC South, AFC North
2018: 13-3 (1st), lost Super Bowl LIII
The Rams pushed a bunch of chips to the middle last year, getting them to the big game where their vaunted offense proceeded to score three points. They bring back basically their entire set of weapons, and with another year of experience for Jared Goff, there's no reason to think the Rams can't come right back. Their defense remains solid, though Ndamukong Suh is gone and Clay Matthews comes in. Though with Aaron Donald on the defensive line... this is a scary group.
2019 Prediction: 12-4
2018: 10-6 (2nd), lost in NFC Wild Card Round
I don't want to say the window is shut... but it's kind of shut. The Legion of Boom is no more, with really the only major holdovers from that legendary group earlier in the decade in the linebacking corps with Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright. Ziggy Ansah's a decent add on the line, and the secondary isn't bad, but it's not the same. I'm not sure what to make of the offense. Russell Wilson is good, and Chris Carson will be the main back in the rotation, but receiver's a bit of a question. D.K. Metcalf is a fairly touted rookie who might make some noise, but other than that you're looking at Tyler Lockett and David Moore. I'm not sold. The Seahawks will be competitive if nothing else.
2019 Prediction: 9-7
2018: 4-12 (3rd), missed playoffs
The big problem for the Niners last year was Jimmy Garoppolo tearing his ACL three games into the season. They were 1-2 at the time, then lost 10 of their last 13 with C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens under center. A healthy Garoppolo improves things to be sure, and Nick Bosa coming in to shore up the defensive line improves a unit that wasn't good last year. I don't think the Niners necessarily have the horses yet to really make a jump, but they'll be improved from last year.
2019 Prediction: 6-10
2018: 3-13 (4th), missed playoffs
Arizona is a major wild card (no, not that kind) this year. Their offense was, by pretty much every statistical measure, the worst in the league. Switching from one young quarterback (Josh Rosen) to another (Kyler Murray) may not be enough, especially since it's not like Rosen was historically awful (it's not his fault he was sacked on 10 percent of his dropbacks). Murray may need to be ready to run at a moment's notice this year, espeically with the only weapons of notice being David Johnson and an old Larry Fitzgerald. Their defense isn't great, but not as awful as their offense. It may be enough for a slight improvement, but as long as Murray doesn't get killed this year and shows some signs, that's a successful season for the Cardinals.
2019 Prediction: 5-11
NFC North
Common opponents on schedule: NFC East, AFC West
2018: 12-4 (1st), lost in NFC Wild Card Round
I think this is the first time since I started doing this feature that I didn't pick Green Bay to win the division, and I think this year it's fair. The Bears return basically every significant piece from last year's team that made the leap from also-ran to contender. Mitch Trubisky is in year three, where a leap is kind of expected, David Montgomery replaces Jordan Howard in the backfield tandem, and the receiving corps is solid. It's the defense that's outstanding. A full year of Khalil Mack with all the outstanding pieces around him like Akiem Hicks, Roquan Smith, Danny Trevathan, and Leonard Floyd, plus a ballhawking secondary led by Kyle Fuller and Eddie Jackson makes this a terrifying group. The only question is can whoever their kicker is overcome the ghost of what happened in January. If they can, from talking to Adam, 14-2 isn't out of the question, but I'm not that optimistic.
2019 Prediction: 11-5
2018: 6-9-1 (3rd), missed playoffs
Two years in a row out of the playoffs meant a regime change (that and losing to the Cardinals), which sees Matt Lafleur taking over in Titletown. He inherits an offense that was average last year, despite the presence of Aaron Rodgers, though Rodgers looked a little off last year. If he's healthy though, he should have Green Bay back in contention. If the defense can stay healthy (a big ask) they should be better than prior iterations as well. Ultimately, if Rodgers can come back close to his peak, the Packers will be in contention.
2019 Prediction: 10-6, Wild Card
2018: 8-7-1 (2nd), missed playoffs
The "upgrade" from Case Keenum to Kirk Cousins in 2018 didn't really pan out; Cousins was all right, but the run game was pretty bad (though that's not his fault really). The defense, vaunted coming into 2018, took a major step back. In reality, I'd probably put them somewhere between their 2017 and 2018 versions, which means they should be good, but not necessarily elite. And with a quarterback who struggles to beat winning teams... I don't think it'll be quite enough.
2019 Prediction: 8-8
2018: 6-10 (4th), missed playoffs
I say "Thank God for Detroit" even though they swept the season series with the Packers in back to back years. But the Lions were 4-10 against the rest of the NFL. Their offense wasn't particularly good, and their defense wasn't much better last year, and I don't know that they'll improve this year. Matt Stafford is a pretty good quarterback, and he's got some okay weapons, but nothing to really write home about. They added Trey Flowers to their defense because Matt Patricia needed some more former Patriots, but there's something about former Pats and not really working as planned outside of New England on the whole. They wont' be a bad team, but I think they're the worst in this division.
2019 Prediction: 6-10
NFC East
Common opponents on schedule: NFC North, AFC East
2018: 9-7 (2nd), lost in NFC Divisional Round
The big question for me is whether or not Carson Wentz (Go Bison) stays healthy, because the safety blanket of Nick Foles is gone. If it comes down to Nate Sudfeld though, at least he has decent pieces. Jordan Howard comes over from Chicago to help the run game, and there are good targets in the receiving corps. We'll see if the defense can keep up their decent 2018 numbers, and if they can, it will take some pressure off. I think it's enough, though, to get Philly to the postseason again.
2019 Prediction: 10-6
2018: 10-6 (1st), lost in NFC Divisional Round
Dallas had one of the better defenses in 2018 and they bring back much of that group. Whether they can keep it up remains to be seen, but they might need to. The big question in North Texas is the contract status of the Cowboys' Big Three. Dak Prescott's deal is up after this year, and he wants way more money than many think he deserves. He's a decent quarterback, sure, but without Ezekiel Elliott (who is holding out and as far as I know shows no signs of returning) he's nowhere near as good. Having Amari Cooper helps, sure, but Tony Pollard isn't Zeke. Jerry Jones says he's good with having a fresh Elliott for the playoffs... but that won't help if you don't make them.
2019 Prediction: 8-8
2018: 7-9 (3rd), missed playoffs
Washington has some interesting options at quarterback, which should be an improvement over 2018's awful offensive performance, but I don't know that Colt McCoy, Case Keenum, or even Dwayne Haskins will be enough for 2019. It should be better than 2018, if nothing else. We'll see how much Adrian Peterson has left in the tank, a big question given that I'm not really sold on the Skins' receiving corps. Their defense is all right, with Josh Norman headlining a group that otherwise doesn't really impress me by name power. Washington will be okay, but in more of a "they're just kind of there" way.
2019 Prediction: 6-10
2018: 5-11 (4th), missed playoffs
The Giants still kind of seem to be lost in the wilderness. They opted for Daniel Jones as their guy to eventually succeed Eli Manning, though for now Manning is still penciled in as the starter. Saquon Barkley had a good rookie year and seems poised to continue to be one of the best running backs in the league, but the Giants lost their stud playmaker in Odell Beckham, Jr., and working with the suspended Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard isn't going to be the full answer. The defense doesn't impress either after a bad 2018, so it could be a long year here, and even switching to Jones may not be enough yet.
2019 Prediction: 4-12
1. New Orleans Saints (13-3)
2. Los Angeles Rams (12-4)
3. Chicago Bears (11-5)
4. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
5. Carolina Panthers (10-6)
6. Green Bay Packers (10-6)
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