2021 AL East Preview

You know we're getting back to some semblance of normalcy when you're looking at a Thursday start to the Major League Baseball season with a full 162 game slate scheduled. And since they're going all out on this... I figure I need to get back to my normal pattern as well.

Last year I didn't do a preview series for Major League Baseball because of the delay in the start of the season, then the quick start up to the abridged one. But with a full year coming up, I feel like I need to get back to my usual pattern. So each of the next few days, I'll look at two divisions a day, alternating leagues as I used to, finishing up with the division hosting our defending champion. With the playoff picture for 2021 up in the air, I won't go into Wild Card picks since my picks could be rendered meaningless in a month or two, I'll just go with record projections.

So, without further ado, here's my first look at the upcoming season.

2019 MLB Preview: AL East

And with this, we are at the end of the preview road.

Back on Monday I started going division by division to look at the upcoming Major League Baseball season, alternating leagues and moving across the country. As is customary, I always conclude with the defending champion's division.

So to wrap this all up, let's grab a look at the AL East. Happy baseball season!

2018 MLB Preview: AL East

I'm changing up the rate at which I'm cranking out previews this year. If you're reading this and are surprised that I put out a pair of previews in one day, that's the plan.

I'm doing two divisions a day for the next couple of days as well, rounding things out with the division of our defending World Series champion. This year we're starting out east again and after covering the National League side of this geography, we're moving on to the AL East.

MLB Tournament of Champions: AL Wild Card Series

The field is set, and now the postseason portion of the MLB Tournament of Champions can begin!

I'm running the format of the postseason almost identically to how Major League Baseball runs its postseason every year, with one exception. The Wild Card round is being expanded to a three game series instead of a single winner-take-all game. These teams just spent 15 weeks fighting to make it this far, and if I'm trying to find arguably the greatest team of all time (or at least, the past 50-plus years), I need to minimize the factor luck plays.

We work our way over to the American League, where it took an extra day to determine this matchup. The higher seed was locked in a week and a half ago in the form of the 2001 Seattle Mariners, a team who struggled to get off the ground in the first three and a half weeks. But they figured things out, even temporarily grabbing a hold of first place in the West for a short stretch before surrendering that lead to the Oakland Athletics. They hung within striking distance though, even when they fell into third place towards the end of May. Eventually though, the Athletics collapsed and after a brief stint in first again, the Mariners would fall into place as the top Wild Card in the American League.

Seattle's opponent and destination for Wednesday required a 93rd game, as the 1970 Baltimore Orioles and 1998 New York Yankees were tied at 48-44 at the end of the regular season. The Orioles beat the Yankees 6-3 on Monday to advance to this stage after spending the entire tournament in contention, leading the East for the first few weeks before sliding a little bit. Baltimore nonetheless remained within striking distance of the Yankees for second in the division and a Wild Card berth, but needed to make up a game on the final weekend of the season and did so to force that winner-take-all game that they won. And here they are, without the benefit of the DH at home because they played before the advent of the designated hitter, against a team they split their six games with during the regular season.

They get that lack of benefit, if you want to call it that, at home in Game 1 before heading to Seattle for Game 2 and if necessary, Game 3, because of Seattle's better regular season record. With this series starting on Wednesday, it allowed for the teams to set up their rotations to some degree, though the O's had the disadvantage of needing to play that aforementioned Game 93.

I will also be keeping stats for this and all postseason series, with the intent of creating an All Tournament Team when the dust clears. Those stats can be viewed here. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play ball!

Unwritten Rules versus Thug Baseball II

Photo from Getty Images (Photographer uncredited)

Three years ago, I wrote about the stupidity of baseball's unwritten rules. After last night, I need to write a sequel.

By now, you've heard about the infamous slide into Dustin Pedroia from a couple weeks ago (and here's a video that includes the slide from MLB Network in case you haven't seen it). It was a reckless slide, to be sure, but I don't think it was a dirty one.

Of course, none of that matters, as the next day the Red Sox went after Machado.

[Video from MLB.com]

Supposedly, this was the end of it. Barnes got suspended for his attempted assault and Machado moved on from it. But then yesterday in the second game of a four game set at Fenway, the bad blood was renewed.

[video from MLB.com]

I included the later home run as part of the video because that just adds to the lore of it all, and is the best response to this kind of thuggery. And that's what this is. It's thug baseball.

Photo by Michael Dwyer (AP)

I find this whole situation somewhat ironic; the last post I wrote with this title was surrounding a play involving Manny Machado of all people, who seems to keep finding himself in situations like this. He handled the heat of the moment perfectly well, saving his revenge for on the field where he took his sweet time trotting the bases after his home run. And he saved the brunt of his anger for after the game with a profanity-laced tirade, which I'm fine with (and Lee Elia probably is too).

The Red Sox, meanwhile, need to be condemned for this. The argument I've heard for Chris Sale throwing at Machado last night stemmed from Mookie Betts getting hit last night. The other justification I've heard for Sale's pitch was that at least he didn't aim at Machado's head. That's fair to a point, but Sale threw at Machado's knees, which he has an injury history with, so the argument is invalidated in my eyes.

Here we get to the crux of the argument and the first part of this post's title. It has long been the unwritten rule of baseball that revenge is meted out by plunking an opponent. You slide hard into someone, you get drilled. Your pitcher hits the other team's best hitter, your best hitter needs to brace for one to the ribs. The players police the game, that whole thing. To an extent, I get it. You need to protect your superstars, and these unwritten rules are supposed to be in place to allow for this.

Photographer uncredited (Photo from Deadspin)

But the problem is this: it's 2017. We should be beyond advocating for assault with a deadly weapon, because evilly wielded, that's what this is. Most pitchers know better than to throw at someone's head, but the knees still seem to be okay. Both are dangerous, and taking a 95-plus mile per hour baseball to the back, ribs, or butt is still not pleasant either. And yet many players, coaches, and fans seem to still be okay with this. I see it fairly often among the racist, homophobic [crap]heads who follow the Cardinals, even though they aren't fully representative of the fan base. Yet it's ingrained into the culture of baseball, and that's the hardest thing about this.

It's hard to fight against a clear cultural norm, where the players, coaches, and even a lot of the former players-turned-analysts condone and endorse. It has to start with the younger generation, but they're being influenced by the current and previous generation who all say it's okay. But throwing at guys serves no purpose. I guess I could justify throwing in tight at a guy, but not intentionally hitting them. The only other way that can change is with a top down order from Rob Manfred, something I don't see coming. So until players wise up, we're going to continue seeing the caveman tactics of assault for slights both real and imagined, and eventually, someone is going to get hurt by it. I just hope it's not something career ending or life threatening when it does happen.

2017 MLB Preview: AL East

We're just a week away from the start of the 2017 Major League Baseball season, which means I need to start doing baseball predictions again!

The 2017 season will run alongside the MLB Tournament of Champions for about three and a half months up until we hit time for that postseason. You can read up on more about that here.

As is my custom, I preview each division individually, going with one each day. I alternate leagues, and always end with the division containing the defending champion. So finally, I get to end with the one I've always wanted to. But for now, we start in the American League, and we'll start out east.

2016 MLB Predictions: AL East

There's no April Fools' jokes here from me. I'm going honest on this prankster holiday with my fourth set of MLB predictions.

We're staying out east today before heading to the heartland this weekend, but today we're looking at one of the more competitive divisions in a lot of recent memory. Let's take a look at the AL East.

2015 MLB Preview: AL East

Spring is upon us. It's starting to warm up again (finally), we've had about a month of spring training baseball to whet the appetite, and we're just a week away from lighting mups at Wrigley Field.

So, as is my custom, I'm going to go division by division and take a look at all 30 clubs, complete with predictions. I look forward to totally overrating a couple clubs while some surprises sneak in and throw everything off, as happens every year.

Since last year's World Series champion came out of the National League West, I'm starting in the opposite league on the opposite coast. You can view last year's AL East predictions here.

Unwritten Rules versus Thug Baseball

Photo by Greg Fiume (Getty Images)

There's a lot of tradition in baseball, considering it's been a major American sport for 150 years. Over all that time, a lot of unwritten rules have popped up, some of them good, others stupid. And I think over the weekend in Baltimore, an incident Friday night over a "breach" of unwritten rules turned into what I think can accurately be described as "thug baseball".

In case you haven't been paying attention (though I'm sure just about everyone has at this point), it all started in Friday's third inning when Machado was tagged out on a fielder's choice advancing to third base. Machado made an effort to get out of the way of Josh Donaldson's tag, but fell off balance. Somehow, he felt this was grounds to throw his batting helmet in the direction of Donaldson, then get in his face. Next time Donaldson stepped up, Oriole starter Wei-Yin Chen decided to throw at him, and got him on the elbow the second time.

Photo by Greg Fiume (Getty Images)

Look, I don't have a problem with protecting your teammates. A purpose pitch to the back is a part of the "unwritten rules", and it's not something everyone is a fan of, but either that or a brushback pitch is a good way to let an opponent know, "Hey, we don't respect what you did," and let everyone get on with it. Problem here is, Donaldson did absolutely nothing wrong. If you're going to try to dodge a tag, the fielder might make an added effort to make sure the tag is applied. But Donaldson's tag was in no way too hard; I watched the replay. It's a blatant overreaction by Machado that put bad blood into a series where it didn't need to be.

If that were it, I wouldn't be writing this post. Instead, things continued on Sunday when Manny Machado injured A's catcher Derek Norris with not one, but two consecutive backswings. Supposedly, this is a part of Machado's swing (I don't watch him enough to know for sure), but the fact that it happened twice in a row is suspicious. Then, when you add in the fact that he was caught smiling after hitting Norris one of those times instead of checking to see if he's okay... that's not right.

So of course, the next time Machado came to bat, A's pitcher Fernando Abad threw in tight at Machado. This is much closer to a "protecting your teammates" incident, and actually is since Machado took a player out of the game. Potential problem was, the pitch was thrown low and in, towards Machado's knee, which he hurt last year. I can understand being upset about it. But then he reacted.

Photo by Gail Burton (AP)

Supposedly, the bat slipped out of his hands. I don't buy it. I'm not convinced that Abad should have thrown the second pitch in tight, and for that, I could see why he got tossed on Sunday. But that in no way excuses what Manny Machado did in throwing the bat. It's completely indefensible. It is, like the title suggests, "Thug baseball".

Machado did apologize yesterday, though for a lot of people the authenticity of it is debatable. I'm willing to accept it, but still believe that he needs to punished. Harshly. His defenders (who should all be ashamed, because this really is indefensible) say that "He's just a kid", or that "Abad should be suspended too because he was throwing at Manny's injured knee", or some other nonsense. I don't get it.

An old friend of mine from my WONC days shared the following post on Facebook, and I think this is the major thing to talk about from this weekend:

"People like Machado and Carlos Gomez actually make baseball more exciting. All the baseball purists need to chill bc (sic) watching a hitter flip his bat after a home run or stare down a pitcher after a bomb is good theater and likewise a pitcher striking someone out at a crucial time and letting em know about it just makes things more exciting in a game that's lacked some of that lately."

I wasn't thrilled with the comparison of Machado to Gomez. I don't really have a problem with Go-Go, other than his use of his helmet as a weapon a month or so ago. Later comparisons were made with young stars like Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Yasiel Puig. They all wear their emotions on their sleeves, something that isn't a problem. I don't really have an issue with bat flips or celebrations on the field or anything of that nature. But to put Machado's name in that argument is to compare apples and oranges. If throwing a hissy fit over a tag, then injuring an opponent while showing no concern, and then throwing a bat into the field of play is "exciting", I don't know where his line for dirty, unsportsmanlike play falls. This goes far beyond "cockiness", as my friend put it. This is downright thug behavior that needs to be nipped in the bud now.

I'm not really sure what the precedent for this sort of behavior in terms of punishment. But ESPN put up a poll question asking what Machado's punishment should be. At posting time, 85 percent of people felt that he deserved a suspension, and a majority felt that he needs at least five games. I'm in that group. I would go so far as to say he deserves at least 10 games off, if not more. The argument that he's only 21 and "still a kid" has no bearing. He should have known since he was a kid that you don't throw a bat like that. If it were just the bat, I'd be more willing to be lenient. Considering his whole weekend, he needs a long break to realize that he needs to calm down a little bit. He can still play with some passion. He just needs to channel it the right way.

2014 MLB Preview: AL East

We've almost made it! Baseball that actually counts and is not played at weird times of the morning starts tonight! It's maybe the first real sign of spring!

In another total shocker, I goofed on last year's predictions out in the AL East, focusing too much on big splashes. There weren't too many big ones this year though, so hopefully I'll be closer to right this time. Also, you best respect the champ. Let's go.