Thursday, October 5, 2023

2023 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 5

The coalition returns for Week 5, and I need a spark.

I had my third straight 7-9 week, which isn't... awful, but it has me in last place among the group. For the week, Adam took five of our nine disputed games, but Joe leapfrogged me by taking four of five disputed; Joe took five of eight disputed with Adam.

Joe's resurgence still has him four off the lead, still held by Geoffrey Clark, but his advantage is down to a tenuous single game. You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here.

As I try to get back into the race, we're getting smaller sample sizes as the bye weeks begin. This week, Adam and I disagree on six games, Joe and I on seven, and Adam and Joe on five out of 14. Let's get to it!

Thursday Night

Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders (-6.5)
Lucas: Commanders.

Adam: Bears. Chicago showed some life last week but admittedly against a piss-poor Broncos team. Plus, a short week makes for a sloppy, sloppy game. Commanders win but I like the Bears to cover... please. Pretty Please.
Lucas note: 
Joe: Commanders.

Sunday Morning

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. I'm gonna take a stab in the dark here because like I feared last week: London awakens something in the Jags.
Adam: Jaguars. Two thoughts here. First, Buffalo is coming off a big win against Miami last week, so expect some level of regression. And two, despite this being listed as a road game, lets be honest; this is more of a home game for the Jags that some of their actual home games.
Joe: Bills.

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
Lucas: Texans. I know it's a home team thing, but I'm legit not sure how the Falcons are favored here. Also, the Falcons should have their bye here given, ya know... they just played in London.
Adam: Texans. I’m starting to believe in Stroud. The whole Houston team is rolling. I’ll keep on them until they give me a reason not to. Plus, Atlanta is hurting for an actual QB. Some rumors are suggesting the Falcons go after Fields; I don’t think the Bears are ready to pass on him yet barring an absolute haul, but the Falcons would be much better if they did.
Joe: Falcons.

Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions (-8.5)
Lucas: Lions. Detroit now that they've annihilated their big brother in their house again and have a cupcake this week:

Adam: Lions. Line is a touch higher than I would like, but I’ll still take the Lions at home. Just hoping Gibbs starts to be closer to 50/50 touch split rather than the 25/75 he is getting now.
Joe: Lions.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
Lucas: Colts. I could go either way on this, but I'll take the Colts given that I'm still not sold on the Titans.
Adam: Titans. Indy put up a fight last week, but I like Tennessee here. Saw a short clip of the Kelce brothers discussing a question someone posted. Given 100 attempts, “turning off injury”, how many times could you take the Euphoric Violet Gazelle in the Oklahoma Drill? The guy said 5. I think it would be lucky to be 2 and those would both be when he trips himself.
Lucas note: My body hurts just thinking about that. Number of times I'd stop him? Negative 20, counting the times he'd send me to the Shadow Realm.
Joe: Titans.

New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins (-9.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. There is a non-zero chance the Dolphins hit 70 again. This time I hope they go for the record if so.
Adam: Dolphins. Let’s all pray for the iPads, or Microsoft pads or whatever they use on the sidelines this week. Also serious question: how did a s***storm that is Daniel Jones get a nickname of Danny Dimes? He ain’t throwing no dimes.
Joe: Giants.

New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots (-1.5)
Lucas: Saints. The Pats are broken. That is all.
Adam: Saints. How are the Pats favored? Usually that means the oddsmakers know more than me, but I still like the Saints.
Joe: Saints.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5)
Lucas: Ravens. Methinks I've been overselling the BS of Steeler Football. Is Matt Canada done torturing the Yinzers yet?
Adam: Ravens. Who saw who got to cook last week? Yup, the Biscuit. Pickett should be back this week, but is that really an upgrade? That's more of an opinion of how bad both are than the Biscuit being even semi-competent. And before you throw stats in my face, I would take Fields over the Biscuit any day.
Lucas note: Again: (editor note: video contains NSFW language)

Joe: Ravens.

Sunday, Late Afternoon

Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams (+4.5)
Lucas: Eagles. I hope I don't regret using the Eagles for my survivor pick this week in my work pool. I'm one of nine people still standing and I want that Amazon gift card, dadgumit.
Adam: Rams. Going out on a limb. The Eagles have won, but not in great fashion. Other than the to the Bucs, they have given up at least 20 points each game. With the young receiver duo and backs sprinkled in, and the outside chance Kupp comes back this week, I like the Rams to at least cover, maybe even win.
Joe: Rams.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals (+3.5)
Lucas: Bengals. I mean, I at least expect Cincy to find the end zone at least once this week...
Adam: Cardinals. Hot take: Cincy is not that good this year, to the detriment of my Fantasy teams where I have heavy shares of Burrow, Chase and Mixon. Arizona played up to Dallas (or did Dallas play down?) In any case, I like the Cardinals to play well.
Joe: Cardinals.

New York Jets @ Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Lucas: Broncos. And to think, all Sean Payton had to do was cut off the sleeves...

Adam: Jets. A little surprised that the Jets are dogs here. I think this is an easy pick, but again makes me think the odds makers know something I don’t. I would have put this line closed to +3.5 with Denver as the dog.
Joe: Jets.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Minnesota Vikings (+5.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. Okay, Taylor Swift needs to be stopped. I mean, it obviously won't happen this week, but still.
Adam: Vikings. Last minute change; had Minnesota originally but changing it to KC... scratch that, back to Minnesota. Really hopping Mama Kelce is in the house with her entourage.
Joe: Chiefs.

Sunday Night

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
Lucas: 49ers. While this one could legitimately go either way, I trust the Niners more than I do the Cowboys. I've been burned enough by Mike McCarthy to know this.
Adam: 49ers. Apparently Dak is upset when asked about how he feels about this game. “You trying to make me upset, thank you, I'm upset now.” Effing tool Dak is barely top 15 in passing in the league; beat 3 meh teams and lost to a trash team... they are going to be steamrolled. Only bonus is we get to see it in prime time.
Joe: 49ers.

Monday Night

Green Bay Packers @ Las Vegas Raiders (+1.5)
Lucas: Packers. We are either going to have Jordan Love have a "Brett Favre after his father's passing" game with Matt LaFleur taking Josh McDaniels to school... or Davante Adams is gonna go bonkers on his former team despite likely having Jaire on him all game. There is no in between.
Adam: Packers. Just looking at the balance of work for both teams, with Green Bay coming off a home loss to division rival Detroit, I like a comeback here against the Raiders.
Joe: Packers.

Records So Far
Lucas: 30-34 (7-9 last week)
Adam: 35-29 (8-8 last week)
Joe: 32-32 (10-6 last week)
Geoffrey: 36-30 (7-9 last week)
Jim: 34-30 (11-5 last week)

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