Thursday, October 12, 2023

2023 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 6

The coalition returns to action for Week 6 of picking NFL games, and I'm feeling better about things.

I snapped my string of consecutive 7-9 weeks with a solid performance that included taking four of six from Adam and five of seven from Joe; Adam won three of five disputed games with Joe. The good news is based off of that performance I'm out of the basement, but only by the slimmest of margins.

Geoffrey continues to hold first place and pushed his lead up to three games. You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here; Adam and Geoffrey's dominance in hero games is a big part of their success. I'm also glad to see that, after a down year last year, our record in consensus games is back up to where it normally is.

This week, Adam and I disagree on seven games out of 15. Joe is on vacation and did not provide his picks by posting time.

Let's get to it!

Thursday Night

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. Let's see... 17-16, a Hail Mary rendered useless thanks to a failed two point conversion, getting a 70-burger dropped on them, losing the Nathaniel Hackett Revenge Game... and now getting killed by the Chiefs for the umpteenth time in a row. I really don't know what the Broncos did to the script writers to deserve this.
Adam: Chiefs. Normally a double digit line makes me take a pause, and with Kelce tweeking his ankle maybe he is not used as much, but KC is the much better team here and at home. Only real question is will Tay Tay make an appearance after taking last week off.

Sunday Morning

Baltimore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans (+3.5)
Lucas: Titans. I should go to Baltimore real quick and try out for the receiving corps. I mean, I can only catch stuff thrown at or above head level, run about a 6.8 40, and will get snapped in half by the first linebacker to hit me... but that might be an improvement over what the Ravens trotted out this past Sunday. Which reminds me, let's bring back this gem.

Adam: Titans. If this were Week 1 or 2 I would have taken the Ravens easy, but with some poor play from them giving the game away last week to the Steelers, and the Titans playing well in general, I’ll throw them a bone for a cover at least, maybe a backdoor cover on a 67 yard touchdown run by Henry.

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
Lucas: Falcons. I could probably go either way here, but I'll take the home team in what's essentially a pick 'em. Atlanta has played fairly well so far and after... whatever happened in Landover this past Thursday, I'm not sure I trust the Commies.
Adam: Commanders. Coming off a surprise loss to my Bears, I see a rebound here in what could actually be a palatable game.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (+2.5)
Lucas: Bears. With Kirk's safety valve gone for the time being, the frauds I figured the Vikings were are going to have a bad time. Side note, I looked at the Bears' all time receiving list. DJ Moore can break into the top 100 in franchise history in receiving yards with a good game this week (he needs 120 yards to tie former Bears running back Raymont Harris). The fact that a guy within six games can reach that threshold for a franchise this historic says... I don't know what.
Adam: Bears. The Beast has awoken: D.J. Moore for 3 tuddys. He also had like 80% of Fields' air yards too, but that was helped by some long touchdown runs. Not ready to claim the Bears have figured it out, but at least they are giving us a glimmer of hope. Plus this is a divisional game so I’ll give them a touch extra for being the home team.

Seattle Seahawks @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. Playing Arizona is certainly a way to unlock your offense. I'm just not sure I like that offense against Seattle. Taking the points.
Adam: Bengals. Burrow looked much better last week and finally pulled together a decent game, plus Seattle is traveling for a noon game on east coast time. I am sure Lucas has already clued us in on that picking line…or has he forgotten that angle.
Lucas note: Not forgotten, just don't know to what degree it'll factor in today. Here are some numbers from last October, for reference, which do seem to back Adam's pick.

San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns (+5.5)
Lucas: 49ers. Barring injuries, I think the Niners have to be the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Adam: 49ers. In direct opposition to the above, a team like San Francisco can travel anywhere and be successful. This game isn’t close from kickoff.

Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins (-13.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. Was talking at work the other day with one of our video editors about how much fun Mike McDaniel is. This might be another game where he can go into the stands to have fans pick out plays again given the Panthers are not good.

Adam: Panthers. Call this a contrarian pick, call this a line pick; I just think Carolina can keep it close. De'Von Achane being out with injury could limit what Carolina needs to plan for and Miami is due for a “down” game. Other than the Chargers in week 1, Miami hasn’t had a team closer than seven.
Lucas note: Are... are we just ignoring the Buffalo game?

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)
Lucas: Colts. Even with Minshew instead of Richardson, now that the Jags have used up their magical London powers, order gets restored to the universe. And if it doesn't, I at least have a little wiggle room.
Adam: Jaguars. Returning to the States after a 2-0 stint in back to back weeks in London, Jacksonville continues the campaign against their former quarterback. No magic today.

New Orleans Saints @ Houston Texans (+1.5)
Lucas: Texans. I know we only have a five week sample size so far, but the Texans may have gotten the prize of the 2023 Draft. Stroud is legit. I look forward to the Curse of Ohio State Quarterbacks in the NFL to shred his knee in 17 places this week because we can't have nice things.
Adam: Texans. Keep riding C.J. Looks more and more like Houston struck gold with this pick.

Sunday, Late Afternoon

New England Patriots @ Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5)
Lucas: Raiders. And I can't believe I'm taking the apprentice over the master when the apprentice is an idiot. That just speaks to how effed the Patriots are.
Adam: Raiders. Not gonna touch the hot steaming garbage that is New England. Also reports coming in Belichick is looking for his next job in fast food.


Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5)
Lucas: Lions. Nothing really to say here. Detroit is the better team and should win handily.
Adam: Lions. Baker will be coming off the high of watching his alma mater finish off UT in the Red River Shootout in absolute epic fashion. Also the Lions are for real. 3.5 should not be a problem.

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
Lucas: Rams. Arizona's feisty, sure, but the Rams are starting to heat up especially with Cupp back on the field.
Adam: Cardinals. We have seen some of what the Cards can do, they just need to put it all together. I am betting they fire together once for every 3-4 games and this is one of them. Rams win, but Arizona covers.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets (+6.5)
Lucas: Eagles. I took Jalen Hurts as my fantasy quarterback not even realizing that I'd get a ton of points courtesy of the Brotherly Shove that has proved nigh unstoppable so far. I hope the NFL doesn't ban it, because other teams aren't nearly as successful with it, so Philly must be doing something right.
Adam: Jets. Philly has to falter at some point, and the Jets should put it together at some point too. Not sure I like a Jets win, but I like a cover, even if it ends up being a backdoor cover late.

Sunday Night

New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills (-14.5)
Lucas: Bills. I'm now one of seven still standing in my work survivor pool and this is my Week 6 pick. At least Tyrod Taylor will be getting another chance again, even if he might die behind what's left of the Giants' o-line.
Adam: Giants. But only because of the line, and the new rule just passed by the committee: defenses must count to 7 Mississippi’s before they can rush giraffe neck (if he even plays). Next up is team ram rod, ol’ Tyrod Taylor. Also it’s a SNF, they want a competitive game for rating purposes.
Lucas note: I'd better go check with the script writer; he's had no qualms about Sunday night blowouts.

Monday Night

Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5)
Lucas: Chargers. Dallas doesn't yet deserve the Heiferladies tag; getting blown the eff out by San Francisco says more about the Niners than it does the Cowboys, but it does give me a chance to highlight the Chargers' schedule release video again in its glory. Also I know Adam will appreciate the potshot at Dak.

Adam: Chargers. I really should make the full switch to Heiferladies, but other than losing to the Cards, they haven’t really done much to warrant the Heiferladies tag. I did think they would have kept the San Francisco game last week more of a contest, but Dak Dak'd... bad. Also fun fact: on Sunday the local MLB team, the Rangers, scored more runs (11) than the Cowgirls did points (10). Let that sink in Jerra.
Lucas note: BAH GAWD THAT'S ANDREW HEANEY'S MUSIC! Records So Far
Lucas: 39-39 (9-5 last week)
Adam: 42-36 (7-7 last week)
Joe: 38-40 (6-8 last week)
Geoffrey: 45-35 (9-5 last week)
Jim: 40-38 (6-8 last week) 

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