We had probably the most lopsided week in column history, and I was worried I had the worst week ever in the column. Thankfully I avoided that guillotine... but I'm not sure Joe did. While I grabbed two of three disputed games from him, Adam swept their seven disputed games and he took seven of eight from me.
Adam ultimately rode a 5-0 week on his hero picks to what is now a two game group lead. You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here, and now please excuse me while I go into a corner and scream into the void about how his success rate there is entirely unsustainable. I did at least finally hit on one, which is something.
So as we try to pick up the pieces from an awful week, Adam and I disagree on seven games, Joe and I on seven, and Joe and Adam on eight. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills (-8.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. Other than that blowout win over the Dolphins a few weeks ago, Adam was right that the Bills haven't exactly impressed. I'm surprised then that this line is so high. Seems like free points to me, which inevitably means Adam will go hero with the Bills and they'll win by 20.
Adam: Buccaneers. This line seems a touch out of whack, but also, one thing I have noticed is that Thursday games end up closer/different than anticipated. So, playing that angle, Tampa with the points.
Lucas note: *exhale*
Joe: Buccaneers.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Los Angeles Rams @ Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
Lucas: Rams. I maintain that I have zero trust in the Cowboys, so I'll grab the points here too.
Adam: Cowboys. At home off the bye, I’ll lay just less than a touchdown. I foresee a game where the Rams are down 10 late, make a drive and decide to take the FG to bring it within a score, but the Cowboys still cover by the half a point.
Joe: Cowboys.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-0.5)
Lucas: Vikings. So this is what's it's like to suck. Huh.
Adam: Vikings. Basically, I like Cousins/Addison better than Love/Watson. It is a divisional game, and it is in Green Bay, so I probably should take the Packers, but did you see that pick turn into a touchdown magic that Addison performed last week?
Lucas note: I did. Also have you seen what passes for "offense" in Green Bay lately?
Joe: Vikings.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans (+2.5)
Lucas: Falcons. So is Desmond Ridder actually good or what? I don't get the NFL.
Adam: Titans. Anyone else get screwed by Bijan not playing last Sunday? OK good, not just me. Eff the Falcons for that. Tennessee by a mile.
Lucas note: Yeah, some of Arthur Smith's usage decisions are... choices, shall we say.
Joe: Falcons.
New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
Lucas: Colts. I can't figure the Colts out. As soon as I'm out they look pretty good; then when I'm back in they lay an egg. I'll grab them at home though.
Adam: Colts. This could actually be a decent game to watch. Wonder what the map looks like for Fox this we- never mind, apparently the Cowgirls are playing a rare noon game this week.
Lucas note: Here's the map, for reference. Orange is this game. Most of the country is subject to Dallas-LA, though up here we get Packers-Vikings.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (-9.5)
Lucas: Patriots. Hoping for a back door cover here.
Adam: Patriots. This is a pure opposite pick for me. Everything in my body says take Miami hard, but the line does not give me the warm fuzzies. New England showed up last week and honestly, Miami has to have an off week at some point... right?
Lucas note: You mean like... against Buffalo a few weeks ago, or Philly this past Sunday? Obviously I agree with your pick, but still. Also Curse of Claypool.
Joe: Dolphins.
New York Jets @ New York Giants (+3.5)
Lucas: Jets. I feel like I could go either way here, but we'll bet on the Jets coming off a bye.
Adam: Jets. Rumor has it MILF Hunter 4000 went on the prowl last week.
Joe: Jets.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)
Lucas: Steelers. Jacksonville's London powers are clearly here to stay. Which, inevitably, means the High End TalentTM will show up on Sunday and we'll be in Stillersgahntasuperbowl mode again.
Adam: Steelers. I think Pittsburgh shows up big in this game. I know everyone is giving Matt Canada a hard time, and I know Pickett is not that good of a QB, but hey, they got Johnson back, and I think they step it up a level.
Joe: Jaguars.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders (+6.5)
Lucas: Commanders. Bell no longer goes dong.
Adam: Eagles. I fear a late cover, but the Eagles are the better team. I think this line is only this low due to it being a divisional road game, which means I should probably take Washington, and in direct opposition of a prior week where I said you should prefer the home team in divisional games. But... it’s the Eagles against the Commanders.
Joe: Eagles.
Houston Texans @ Carolina Panthers (+3.5)
Lucas: Texans. This is the one I'm reasonably certain of. Also everyone in Chicago will be rooting for the Texans so the Bears can get that sweet, sweet number one overall pick again.
Adam: Panthers. Last minute change here. In a battle of top QB picks, I like Houston to win, generally. But I see a tight back and forth battle. Plus Carolina finally seems to know that they have a decent WR in Adam Thielen.
Joe: Texans.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Cleveland Browns @ Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. I can't really figure the Browns out, but I think the Seahawks take care of business at home.
Adam: Seahawks. Originally had Cleveland here, but looked up the info on Watson; seems like he may be out a few weeks. So with PJ Walker getting the start again, I like Seattle a touch more here.
Joe: Seahawks.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (+7.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. The streak continues.
Adam: Chiefs. This will not be close.
Joe: Chiefs.
Baltimore Ravens @ Arizona Cardinals (+8.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. Stupid Ravens killed me in my work Survivor league last week. That's not sustainable, and again, this Cardinal team is feisty. Taking the points.
Adam: Ravens. Did you see the Ravens manhandle the Lions last week? Wow. At one point I shared a stat that absolutely flabbergasted me: with seven minutes left in the 2nd, the total yards were 325 to 13. Wowzers.
Joe: Ravens.
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
Lucas: Bengals. I do think the Niners will be fine when it's all said and done, but they definitely don't look like the world beaters they were the first month of the season. I'll take the points here.
Adam: Bengals. I can see this either way; Run CMC is just a beast. But Purdy seems to be coming back to earth. I see his career going something similar to Napoleon: do some pretty cool things for a few weeks, lead a team to some playoff success and then have the slow glimmer down. Since the 49ers made it to the NFC championship before his injury I think we are now in the slow glimmer down.
Joe: 49ers.
Sunday Night
Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Chargers (-8.5)
Lucas: Bears. Tyson Bagent did what he needed to do last week, and I think he does so again this week. Also, this is more an indictment of Brandon Staley inevitably doing something to screw the Chargers over again.
Adam: Chargers. I mean look, Bagent did fine last week against the Raiders. But on the road, on Sunday Night, against a markedly better defense? It could get ugly.
Joe: Bears.
Monday Night
Las Vegas Raiders @ Detroit Lions (-8.5)
Lucas: Lions. I'm going boring this week; minimal memes. Last week just beat me down... like the Lions!
Adam: Raiders. Look, the Lions were humbled last week, and the Raiders lost to the first D-II QB to start a game in the NFL in like 70 years. But call this a gut pick, call this a whatever you want pick. I like the Raiders to cover. Not win, but cover, even if it is backdoor.
Joe: Lions.
Records So Far
Lucas: 48-58 (3-10 last week)
Adam: 60-46 (9-4 last week)
Joe: 48-58 (2-11 last week)
Geoffrey: 58-48 (4-9 last week)
Jim: 53-53 (3-10 last week)
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