As I've done in years past, I will look at the candidates for the four major awards in each league, and make my case for each below.
Manager of the Year
American League
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| Photo by Stuart Cahill (Boston Herald) |
108-54 (1st in AL East), 15 wins above COAS prediction
With all due respect to Bob Melvin, who is pretty much guaranteed some votes in this category after leading the A's back to the postseason, the Red Sox were the story from start to finish this season, building an insurmountable lead in the division early and not looking back. The Yankees improved under Aaron Boone, which deserves some credit as well, and AJ Hinch got the defending champs back to the postseason again, but for a while the Red Sox were on a historic pace and potentially threatening the single season record. That has to count for something.
National League
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| Photo by Jennifer Stewart (Scripps Media) |
96-67 (1st in NL Central), 8 wins above COAS prediction
There were plenty of options here. Joe Maddon deserves credit for taking a team that dealt with a crapton of injuries and had them in first place for basically all of the second half until yesterday. Brian Snitker took a young team to a division crown. Bud Black was my pick last year and improved upon his 2017 campaign. But even though the roster additions arguably played a bigger role, I have to go with the guy who orchestrated the team that overcame a five game deficit at the beginning of September to win a division title against a heavily favored team.
Rookie of the Year
American League
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| Photo by Jonathan Daniel (Getty Images) |
149 G, .297/.328/.527, 27 HR, 47 2B, 2 3B, 92 RBI, 83 R, 2 SB
I ended up really only considering Yankees here, with Gleyber Torres being the other guy. He tied Daniel Palka of the White Sox for the league lead in homers among rookies, led all rookies in RBI's, OPS, and doubles, and while his on base percentage isn't that great, he struck out less than 100 times. He was below average defensively, but with those offensive numbers he more than offset it.
National League
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| Photo by Jim McIsaac (Getty Images) |
116 G, .292/.406/.517, 22 HR, 25 2B, 1 3B, 70 RBI, 77 R, 5 SB
It's a two horse race in this one between Soto and Ronald Acuña, Jr. of the Braves, and you really can't go wrong with either guy. Acuña led National League rookies in homers and stolen bases, while out hitting (by one point) and out slugging Soto. But Soto has a higher OPS by virtue of his plate discipline and taking 79 walks to Acuña's 45, and only struck out 99 times (Acuña did 123 times). Soto also technically homered before he debuted in the Major Leagues, which is pretty awesome. Now, if you go by advanced metrics, Acuña had more WAR (4.1 to Soto's 2.9 per Baseball Reference), but I'll still lean Soto. I don't think you can go wrong either way though.
Cy Young Award
American League
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| Photo by Frank Franklin II (AP) |
31 G (31 starts), 21-5, 1.89 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 180.2 IP, 64 BB, 221 K, .178 BAA, .554 OPSa
To me, this was another two horse race. I originally wanted to go with Verlander based on his even more absurd WHIP (0.90), the fact that he only walked 37 guys all year in 214 innings, and league leading 290 strikeouts. But some of the other numbers concerned me; 28 homers is a lot, and that made me look closer at Snell. Yes, Snell gave up more stolen bases (13 in 17 attempts compared to three in seven tries for Verlander), but his OPS against was better, he induced 15 double plays to Verlander's three, and his average against was better with a WHIP almost as good as Verlander's. The league leading 21 wins was a cherry on top.
National League
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| Photo from Getty Images (Photographer uncredited) |
32 G (32 starts), 10-9, 1.70 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 217 IP, 46 BB, 269 K, .196 BAA, .521 OPSa
Again, two horse race. Max Scherzer won 18 games, tied for most in the National League, struck out 300, and had a better batting average against (.188). Those absurd numbers are going to give him a lot of love in this race. But to me the answer is deGrom, and it's not close. Scherzer only pitched a handful more innings, and deGrom beat him out in OPS against (Scherzer was at .580), deGrom walked five fewer batters, induced three more double plays and was better at getting ground ball outs than Scherzer in general, while also having better numbers against would-be base stealers. The record is the one hangup, but when Scherzer got almost two full runs of support per game more than deGrom did, the record makes sense and proves once again that pitcher wins are kind of BS.
Most Valuable Player
American League
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| Photo by Maddie Meyer (Getty Images) |
136 G, .346/.438/.640, 32 HR, 47 2B, 5 3B, 80 RBI, 129 R, 30 SB
There are quite a few candidates here, and the problem with picking a Boston guy is that there are a number of options. JD Martinez added another layer to Boston's offense this year, and Xander Bogaerts was really good. But Betts won the batting title going away and finished second in OPS behind Mike Trout while striking out only 91 times and walking 81 times. Baseball Reference's WAR actually just barely gives Betts the edge over Trout as well (10.5 to 10.4). When you add in that Betts had an 1.152 OPS in late/close situations according to Major League Baseball's definition, and I think the argument is settled.
National League
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| Photo by Morry Gash (Getty Images) |
147 G, .326/.402/.598, 36 HR, 34 2B, 7 3B, 110 RBI, 118 R, 22 SB
I really wanted to pick Javier Baez here, and he's probably going to finish in the top three when it's all said and done, if not the top two. But Yelich's September was ridiculous and propelled to within two home runs and one RBI of a Triple Crown. His 1.000 OPS is the best in the league, though it drops to .962 in MLB's late/close situations (but that's still pretty ridiculous). The biggest anti-Yelich argument stems from Lorenzo Cain's presence on the team, who will steal some votes, and Javy Baez's biggest argument comes in that he pretty much carried the Cubs for much of the year and played elite defense at three different positions. But Baez still doesn't really walk much, and Yelich all but singlehandedly led the Brewers to the NL Central crown. I have to tip my cap.
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