Thursday, September 13, 2018

2018 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 2

One week of football is in the books, and with Week 2 kicking off tonight, the coalition is back at picking NFL games against the spread!

We've got a big group this year, which meant massive expansion of the Google sheet tracking our picks in relation to each other. And after one week, we're still pretty much bunched together.

Perhaps most importantly, after trailing for literally the entire season last year, I took five of the seven disputed games from Adam last week en route to being tied for first through 16 games. And our wives acquitted themselves pretty well in their first week of picking games: Kristen is just a game out of first place after picking all the cat teams in Week 1 and winning three of those four games, while Jen went hero twice and won both of those contests.

In the sequel, Adam and I disagree on six games out of 16. Before the jump, as a fair warning: some NSFW language is included below. Let's get to it!

Thursday Night

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (+0.5)
Lucas: Ravens. I've seen this movie before: the Ravens beat up on a couple bad teams in the opening weeks of the season, they think they're the greatest thing since sliced bread before getting knocked back down to earth. But for now?
Adam: Bengals. Not much to see here... the Ravens beat up on the weak Bills and Cincy's offense was one-dimensional.

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-5.5)
Lucas: Panthers. Carolina couldn't take full advantage of a pretty bad Cowboys team last week, but you want me to lay points with a Falcons team that sucks in the red zone? I just wish Greg Olsen would stop turning into Moses Malone.
Adam: Panthers. I recall seeing some stat over the past week about how Matt Ryan and Julio Jones have only connected for 1 red zone touchdown in the past 2 years... I am fading Atlanta hard.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills (+7.5)
Lucas: Chargers. In the first draft of my series of NFL previews, I had the Bills as the second AFC wild card. Boy, did I dodge a bullet there.
Adam: Chargers. It always pains me to give more than about 5-6 points to any team, but did you see the Bills last week?! I recall texting my wife’s cousin before Allen was put in. The Bills only had 40 yards of total offense!

 Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints (-8.5)
Lucas: Browns. Remember last year when I called the Saints defense garbage for the first few weeks before realizing they were actually pretty good? I'm going to call that foreshadowing for 2018, and don't let anyone tell you otherwise. This team has no business being favored by this much, even against the Factory of Sadness.
Adam: Saints. And there was a fire fight. I am talking about the fans in Cleveland rioting over the non-loss, not the fact that Drew Brees is about to drop Armageddon on them.
Adam note: Interesting fact: the Browns created a +5 turnover differential. Teams doing that are something like 126-2-1. The Browns are responsible for 2 of the non-victories...
Lucas note: Pretty close.
Lucas note: And I didn't see this because that jackwagon Barnwell blocked me on Twitter because I jokingly asked when the next Thank You For Not Coaching column was coming out like... four years ago.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-0.5)
Lucas: Vikings. Even though Aaron Rodgers on one knee is better than like 97 percent of the rest of the league, what he just did to the Bears' defense is a lot harder to pull off against Minnesota's defense. And if I have to see Deshone Kizer again...
Adam: Vikings. A-A-Ron may not be ready for the game; he is still coming off his high. No, not from the win, from the drugs... get that man tested.
Lucas note: This made me think of this question from "Would You Rather" on Waddle and Silvy on Tuesday:
Lucas note: Drunk Aaron Rodgers is probably still better than 50 percent of the league.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (+2.5)
Lucas: Texans. We're sure the Titans-Dolphins game from this past Sunday is done now, right?
Adam: Texans. Both these teams underperformed last week, but the Titans took the brunt of it. Though the Texans should have been able to overtake the Pats, the Titans ended up playing a marathon delayed game with multiple injuries.

Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Redskins (-5.5)
Lucas: Redskins. And that's even if they play this one. But if they do I'm obeying the prime gambling law: Never bet against God, puppies, or first home games for cancer/natural disaster survivors.
Adam: Colts. I have gone back and forth on this game a couple of times. But it comes back to me that the Colts are a significantly better team with Luck, and he is their lucky charm.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. So lemme get this straight: I can take an explosive offense including Tyreek Hill against a team that's still dealing with the Le'Veon Bell distraction, just tied with the Factory of Sadness, and I'm getting five and a half?!
Adam: Steelers. I know what you are saying: Pittsburgh couldn’t even beat the Browns. But KC was playing a softer D with Hill doing crazy things. Hill and Mahomes won’t have near the room to work here. Brown and Bell ehm... Conner tear it up again.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (-2.5)
Lucas: Jets. ALL ABOARD THE DARNOLD BANDWAGON!
Adam: Jets. Wait, so the Jets are favored... is the world coming to an end? Well to be fair, the Lions did not look that good, but the Jets did impress.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. Per Tuesday Morning Quarterback, "Since the start of the 2017 season, the Buccaneers are 3-10 with Jameis Winston at quarterback and 3-1 with Ryan Fitzpatrick."
Adam: Buccaneers. I have no respect for Philly after running the Ph!##y $peci@l again. F’in’ homer Philly fans ate it up. Hot Garbage IMO.
Lucas note: I debated about whether or not to include this tweet as a rebuttal to Adam's point. So, with his blessing, here's a NSFW tweet from last year's Bears-Eagles game that's kind of related.

Sunday, Late Afternoon

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
Lucas: 49ers. If anyone else is going to be clued in on Matthew Stafford's signals for a second straight week, it's gotta be Richard Sherman, right? Stafford's not going to throw four picks again, but it could be another rough one for him.
Adam: 49ers. Man, the Bears were a few ligaments on Sunday and Monday night from having the second best QB in the NFC North. But Alas both A-A-Ron and Stafford made returns...only the Lions did not fare as well.
Lucas note: ...Do I rub it in? Yeah, I'm gonna rub it in.

 Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (-12.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. I think the Rams are the way better team, don't get me wrong, but I'm gonna take the points here. Almost two touchdowns is a lot to ask even though it's totally doable.
Adam: Rams. Cannot believe I am going to be giving almost two touchdowns, but other than DJ, Arizona doesn’t have much. And the Rams' D should do a fine job stopping him up most of the game.

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-5.5)
Lucas: Raiders. Okay, the initial headache of the first game without Khalil Mack is behind them, and they played fairly well early against the Rams before falling out of it late. I'll take the points here and hope that that Gruden fellow gets back into the swing of things.
Adam: Raiders. The Las Vegas... shoot... the Oakland Raiders. They performed much better than expected. And though I expect them to lose, they will cover.

New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Most of the past few years the Patriots have seemed to have some early season troubles. I could see this as being one of them: against their AFC Championship opponent who gave them a game back in January, in their building, coming off a pretty good win. I'll take the gamble here, but I promise, Touchdown Tom: I'm not counting you out.
Adam: Patriots. This line makes go, "What..." I know the Jags are better than a couple years ago, but have they forgotten who is the QB? The GOAT.

 Sunday Night

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)
Lucas: Giants. I know the line technically makes this a pick 'em, but I can't believe Dallas is favored this week. Granted, the Giants' defense isn't as good as Carolina's, but New York gave an elite defense in Jacksonville a pretty good game. Against a less impressive defense? Let's go with it.
Adam: Giants. Dallas didn’t score until about 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter. I have been listening to Sport radio here in Dallas; it is interesting to hear about how everyone wants the coaches to be fired and so on. Just like listening to the radio in Chicago the previous 10 years...
Lucas note: To be fair... what has Jason Garrett done for them, exactly?

Monday Night

Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears (-3.5)
Lucas: Bears. Since I already took my potshot earlier, I'll admit: the Bears have a good framework in place. Come home for a date against a team with a bad offensive line and a declining defense, and you have a recipe for a win. Also, Khalil Mack still scares me.
Adam: Bears. Even if the Bears blew a 20-0 lead, a la the Falcons 28-3 blown lead, and I contend Green Bay cheated by dosing up A-A-Ron with some meds and Trubisky did miss this wide open TD, Seattle is but a glimmer of its past self. Out with the old regime and in with the new.
Lucas note: I don't remember him being that wide open...

 Records So Far
Lucas: 10-6
Adam: 7-9
Geoffrey: 9-7
Joe: 10-6
Aiden: 7-9
Kristen: 9-7
Jen: 7-9
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