2018 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 1

Okay, the NFL preview series is all done. The NFL Tournament of Champions is in the books. And with the 2018 season kicking off today... it's time to renew my favorite feature of Confessions of a Sportscaster.

In the first full NFL season that I'd been writing Confessions of a Sportscaster, I started picking NFL games against the spread, and loved it. That was 2012, and here we are with this feature beginning its seventh year. But it's no fun just doing this on my own. I like making it a competition. And competition needs a rival writer.

That's where Adam Quinn comes in. He's my wife's cousin's husband, but he's also a good friend who I get to see a few times a year when he comes up from Texas, though he's from the area and lived here until just a couple years ago. Fortunately we stay in touch and I'm honored to have him back once again.

Our overall contest is not just between us, even though he's the featured guest picker. We are rejoined this season by my old friend from my WONC days, Chicago Bulls Confidential blogger, 90's Youth Life podcast host, and guy who was devastated by 1994 Jeff Blauser's virtual show of power in Geoffrey Clark.

The rest of the group is a bevy of family. We're joined by my brother-in-law Joe, who I think was really excited to get in on the contest this year. Meanwhile, Adam and I pulled off some recruitments for the contest in his wife Jen and their son Aiden, while my wife Kristen is also on board. Knowing how these things work, either Kristen or Jen are on tap to be the first to pull off an undefeated week in COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em history, and that's largely because Adam already jinxed himself by text yesterday.

Every week you'll see our standings for the week as I'll link to our ESPN group, and I also tabulate our picks in comparison to each other on a Google sheet (thanks to Adam for creating the original a few years back whose template I took and publicized, and have adjusted for this year to account for the increase in participants). But as for the column it's me and Adam every week unless he has a commitment that takes him away, in which case I'll try to recruit a guest columnist.

Adam is our defending champion for the 2017 season and looks to defend his crown. In the four years we've done this so far, we've split in terms of who's done better for a given year. That makes 2018 a rubber year, and one I'm looking forward to. But before we make our picks, I would like to cede the floor to our defending champion.

The boys are back in town!  Haha, back and ready to embark on a great season. Things are finally look up for my Bears and down on GB!  More on that later.

Them's fighting words, sir. For the inaugural 2018 post, Adam and I disagree on seven games out of 16. Without any further ado... let's get to it!

Thursday Night

Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
Lucas: Eagles. Weather forecasts say potential for rain in Philly tonight. If it does rain and they don't play this at some point during the game I'm going to be pissed.

Lucas note: ...okay, the Weezer cover is acceptable as well.

Adam: Falcons. With Wentz still not ready, the Eagles must send my 'friend' Napoleon Dynamite to battle. And we all know how the Russian campaign ended...

Lucas note: You and I remember the Russian campaign very differently.

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)
Lucas: Ravens. Originally I took the Bills here because I think the Ravens are overrated. But then I saw that Nathan Peterman is starting for Buffalo, and... well...

Adam: Bills. Like years past, I just don't seem to know much about the Ravens this year. What I do know is the Bills waived Corey Coleman, who they traded for in the offseason, and acquired backup QB AJ McCarron. They must like their team if they are giving up that talent, relative to the role of course.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
Lucas: Colts. BAH GAWD, THAT'S CAPTAIN ANDREW LUCK'S MUSIC!

Adam: Colts. Andrew Luck is finally back from whatever number of weird injuries he had. I think he had a lacerated kidney at one point! Anyhow, he should not miss a beat in getting back in bed with TY Hilton.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (+6.5)
Lucas: Steelers. I almost switched this pick around too with Le'Veon Bell still not reporting. But I don't know that they'll need him for this one. Sorry, Cleveland, you'll have to wait on the beer.
Adam: Steelers. Even with Bell not reporting Monday as expected, and even if Bell doesn't report at all, I still like the Steelers. Though the Browns will be much improved this year, not to the tune of 7 points in Week 1 against a powerhouse offense.

Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins (+1.5)
Lucas: Titans. I miss Jay. :(

Adam: Titans. Now that the Jay Cutler experiment is over in Miami, it pains me to say, but Miami took a step back in the QB spot. This game will come down to whose defense can stop whom.

San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)
Lucas: 49ers. Don't bet against Jimmy G-sus... especially when you're getting points.
Adam: 49ers. This should be an above average game this week. Jimmy G wanting to prove himself and Kirk Cousins staring off on a new team. I generally like Minnesota's offense better, but cannot get past the 5.5 in this game. Taking the points.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (-6.5)
Lucas: Patriots. Glad to have Deshaun Watson back, but I give them a couple weeks to really get going. I'll take Touchdown Tom at home, thanks.
Adam: Patriots. Yes, even given the points agains a stud offense. I give you exhibit A...

Adam note: [mic drop]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (-9.5)
Lucas: Saints. I'm normally a little leery of double digit spreads (and let's face it, this counts), but the Bucs are awful and on the road with their backup quarterback. Have a day, Alvin Kamara.
Adam: Buccaneers. Given that Tampa Bay has Winston out for a few games to start the season and they have a dumpster fire in the backfield; the rookie they would soak up the carries is trash, and the vet who why have now may not live up to the billing of the rookie... despite that, I like taking the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Giants (+2.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Over-under on when the full-out fight between Jalen Ramsey and Odell Beckham, Jr. starts is at 20.5 minutes in. I'm taking the under. Come at me, bro.

Adam: Jaguars. It comes down to I like the Jacksonville defense better than the aging Manning and OBJ. I don't love the idea of giving points in this situation, but this will not be a 3 point game regardless of the outcome.

Sunday, Late Afternoon

Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. I picked the Chargers to win the AFC West, but I think they either stumble out of the gate or just barely get by.
Adam: Chargers. It's the dawn of a new era in KC with Mahomes getting the nod. I don't see too many over the top offensive weapons, yes Hunt can make plays, but Kansas City's tied in with Mahomes still being new to the starting role.

Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
Lucas: Panthers. I got nothing, so here's a picture my dad took of some random U fan at JerryWorld over the weekend.

Adam: Panthers. I don't see this one being close other than the time between opening kick and the Panthers first touchdown. Newton, McCaffrey and team will steam roll. Sure, Elliot could do some good things, but not enough.

Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. Until I see evidence to the contrary, I'm going with the theory that Case Keenum was a one year wonder, so I'll take the points on this one.
Adam: Broncos. Let us take a moment to mourn our dearly departed... RIP Legion of Boom.

Lucas note: I, for one, am not shedding a tear. But then again I'm still a little bitter.

Washington Redskins @ Arizona Cardinals (-0.5)
Lucas: Redskins. As I'm not really sold on Arizona, I'll ride Alex Smith on this one and hope he's still as good as he was in Kansas City.
Adam: Cardinals. How is this line only 0.5?!?! As I always say when the line seems off, I am not a line setter for a reason. There must be something I am missing... Well, what I see is a David Johnson looking to make up for the 15.5 missed games last year, a Washington team with a new QB, a running back by committee at best, slightly above average wideouts and a tight end who can never stay healthy. Arizona rolls at home.

Sunday Night

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-8.5)
Lucas: Bears. So these lines came out a couple weeks ago, and I was really leery seeing this one. It's the Packers celebrating their 100th season, in the marquee matchup of the week, against their oldest rival. Add in the return of Aaron Rodgers and I'd normally make this a gimme. But the Bears spoiled Brett Favre Jersey Retirement Night three years ago in primetime, and this line just seemed way too high. ...Also, this guy scares me.

Adam: Bears. This line was made before the Bears bent over Gruden, the Raiders and Raider nation and stole Kahlil Mack for effectively trading a 2020 first round pick for a 2020 second round pick.
Lucas note: I'll reserve judgment on who won the trade for a couple years; on the surface you don't get rid of a superstar pass rusher, but the Raiders got quite a bit for him, and if Mitchell Trubisky turns out to be a bum...

Monday Night

New York Jets @ Detroit Lions (-6.5)
Lucas: Jets. Look, I'm not sold on Sam Darnold, don't get me wrong. But a touchdown is a lot to lay on a Detroit team that I'm not sold on either. I'm going to miss taking potshots at Jim Caldwell though. You know what, here's one more for the road.

Adam: Lions. Local boy Matthew Stafford looks to continue his throwing ways with 2.5 solid targets this year. Vet Golden Tate, Marvin Jones Jr, and Kenny Golladay. Though Tate is the top receiver to start the season, my money is on Jones Jr to end the season as the WR1, or at least 1/2 of my Fantasy football teams hope that.

Los Angeles Rams @ Oakland Raiders (+2.5)
Lucas: Rams. I had LA from the get-go on this one, but you add in the aforementioned Mack trade and this one's a no brainer.
Adam: Rams. The Raiders are having a fire sale. It's not like they are putting up their middle finger to the Oakland fans and moving or something like that... wait... yes... this just in: the Raiders to flee Oakland out of fear of their fan base, seeking fans who are more accepting of dumb a$$ moves.

Records Last Year
Lucas: 128-128
Adam: 134-122
Geoffrey: 132-124
Joe: 0-0
Aiden: 0-0
Kristen: 0-0
Jen: 0-0
Scott: 125-131