Super Bowl LI Predictions and Prop Bets

It's become a true tradition unlike any other: Super Bowl weekend, and Adam and I are scratching gambling itches without spending any money... or at least I am.

I don't remember what last year's results on this were, but two years ago I won pretty much solely based on the Gatorade bath taken by Bill Belichick. Hopefully I won't need that this year to win. Like in prior years, we're going to make our picks for the game and enjoy a few prop bets; many are game-based, but we're also going to do some extra curricular ones because those are fun.

But first, here are our Super Bowl LI predictions.
Super Bowl LI

New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons (+3) (+/- 59.5)

Lucas: Let's see... we've got the most prolific offense in the NFL that lit up a couple of terrible defenses their past two games, a quarterback who is a front runner to win MVP, an elite wide receiver, a strong two-headed rushing attack, but a defense that doesn't really strike much fear into my heart. They still gave up a decent number of points to Seattle and Green Bay, and they're going up against a Patriots team that knows this stage better than pretty much any other team. Bill Belichick's forte is taking away an opponent's best weapon and making the rest of the team beat you. That means Matt Ryan will need to hit Mohammed Sanu for some big plays, and both Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman need to make the most of their carries. Julio Jones will probably still get his, but he's going to be contained. And at the end of the day, you just can't count out Touchdown Tom... not in this instance.

Prediction: Patriots 28, Falcons 24

Adam: I am going to go with the Falcons over the Pats but only just. I think the Pats are going to come up just short in a last minute attempt to take the lead. Matty Ice and J Jones will hook up frequently for 175 and 2 TDs. Not today Mr. Touchdown Tom. Go deflate your balls and cry in the corner.

Prediction: Falcons 30, Patriots 28

Prop Bets

Adam and I are doing this like we have in recent years. We are each betting 100 points on each prop, so obviously the big underdog bets are going to be the most tempting. At the end we'll add up all the points we're betting to win, and whoever wins the most wins the contest. Because I tallied my point totals before Adam sent me his picks, some of the lines did change. Where they did, however, I tried to give Adam the better value just to make it more fair.

What will the result of the Coin Toss be?
Lucas: Heads (-105).
Adam: Heads (-105). Head... who doesn't like... eeehhmmm.

How long will it take Luke Bryan to sing the National Anthem (+/- 2:09)?
Lucas: Over (-120). Come on, unless Jim Cornelison is singing the anthem, always take the over.
Adam: Under (-120). This time he won't be reading off his hand.

Will Luke Bryan forget or omit a word from the Official US National Anthem?
Lucas: Yes (+400).
Adam: No (-700).

Will Luke Bryan be wearing a hat when he appears on screen before singing the US National Anthem?
Lucas: Yes (+150).
Adam: Yes (+150).

Will any player on the Patriots or Falcons be seen kneeling during the National Anthem on live TV during the broadcast?
Lucas: No (-700).
Adam: Yes (+400). But not for Kap... because... 'Murica.

How many times will "deflate" or "Deflategate" be said on TV during the broadcast (+/- 1.5)?
Lucas: Over (-120). This is almost a surer bet than "Will Al Michaels make a gambling reference?"
Adam: Over (-120). Over, over over... oh God, over.

What color will Lady Gaga's hair be when she starts her halftime show?
Lucas: Any color other than blonde (+200).
Adam: Blonde (-300).

What will Lady Gaga wear?
Lucas: Cut off sweatshirt (+5000). Surprised at the lack of options on this prop bet...
Adam: Glasses (+200). I was tempted at the nothing...but then I realized that means naked and that is not want I want to see...no "wardrobe malfunction" needed. Or would a meat dress count?
Lucas note: ...That is a valid question, and I have no idea what the answer is.

What will Lady Gaga's first song of the halftime show be?
Lucas: Applause (+2000).
Adam: Just Dance (+1100).

IF the Patriots win, will Brady, Belichick, or Kraft be seen shaking Roger Goodell's hand on TV?
Lucas: Yes (-300). Only because the Pats are classy enough to not be poor sports in victory.
Adam: Yes (-300). But I would gladly give the points to see Goodell's face when they stiff him.
Lucas note: Same.

Who will have more passing yards: Tom Brady or Matt Ryan?
Lucas: Ryan (-125).
Adam: Ryan (-125).

Who will throw the first touchdown pass: Brady or Ryan?
Lucas: Ryan (+120).
Adam: Brady (-140).

Who will throw the first interception: Brady or Ryan?
Lucas: Ryan (-150).
Adam: Brady (+120). If there were a vote for neither, I'd take that one.

Will either Brady or Ryan record 415 or more passing yards to break the Super Bowl record?
Lucas: No (-700).
Adam: No (-700). But if Ryan and Jones get going it could be close.

Who will have more rushing yards: Devonta Freeman or LeGarrette Blount (-2.5)?
Lucas: Freeman (-115).
Adam: Freeman (-115).

Who will have more rushing yards: Tevin Coleman or Dion Lewis?
Lucas: Lewis (-115).
Adam: Lewis (-115).

Who will record the most rushing yards in the game?
Lucas: Lewis (+300).
Adam: Freeman (+140).

Who will have more receiving yards: Julian Edelman or Julio Jones (-2.5)?
Lucas: Edelman (-115).
Adam: Jones (-115).

Who will record the most receiving yards in the game?
Lucas: Chris Hogan (+600).
Adam: Jones (+175).

Who will score the first touchdown?
Lucas: LeGarrette Blount (+700).
Adam: Chris Hogan (+1600).

Will a special teams or defensive touchdown be scored?
Lucas: No (-205).
Adam: No (-205).

How many opposing fumble recoveries will there be (+/- 1.5)?
Lucas: Under (-175).
Adam: Over (+145).

How many interceptions will there be (+/- 1.5)?
Lucas: Over (EVEN).
Adam: Under (-130).

How many total sacks will there be (+/- 4)?
Lucas: Over (-105).
Adam: Under (-125). But I could be convinced either way.

How many punts will there be (+/- 7)?
Lucas: Under (-125).
Adam: Over (-105). Just barely.

What color will the liquid be that is poured on the head coach of the winning team?
Lucas: Red (+600). Go with the value pick that could work for either team!
Adam: Orange (+300). I do hate this question, as I recall, and I am probably not remembering right, but I think Lucas beat me one year just because he hit like +500 on this bet.
Lucas note: Checking the link from the top, yeah, I got like 750 points from that and that's the only reason I won. Good times.

Who will win Super Bowl LI MVP?
Lucas: Tom Brady (+125).
Adam: Matt Ryan (+210). Matty Ice Ice Baby.

Who will the Super Bowl MVP mention first after he is presented the trophy?
Lucas: Family (+500).
Adam: Team/Teammates (+150).

Points Available
Lucas: 2800 points bet to gain 11,806.77 (Total: 14606.77)
Adam: 2800 points bet to gain 5770.43 (Total: 8570.43)