One More To Go: A CCIW Update

I didn't get to watch any of it live, but I'm reveling in the upset pulled off by NCC against Illinois Wesleyan. I guess if you maybe want to get technical, both of them.

The regular season all comes down to Tuesday, and while most of the CCIW Tournament field is filled, the seedings are still very much up for grabs. And so as I like to do on an annual basis going into the final game, here are the scenarios for seedings in next weekend's CCIW Tournament.

I do want to express my thanks to the D3Boards community for working out all of the men's scenarios, which greatly helped my understanding of how Tuesday's stuff was going to work.

Women's Basketball

North Central was eliminated last weekend after kind of a disappointing year, but yet they still managed to clinch a winning record overall and at worst, will be 7-9 in CCIW play, which isn't an awful mark by any stretch of the imagination. This is especially true since the Cardinals knocked off Illinois Wesleyan last night

Now, the CCIW Tournament teams are set, but the seeding is still up for grabs. Fortunately, the scenarios for Tuesday are pretty.

Wheaton: Clinches the #1 seed with:

• A win versus Illinois Wesleyan.

Illinois Wesleyan: Clinches the #1 seed with:

• A win at Wheaton.

Augustana: Clinches the #3 seed with:

• A win versus North Central.
• An Elmhurst loss at Millikin.

Elmhurst: Clinches the #3 seed with:

• A win at Millikin AND an Augustana loss versus North Central.

Tiebreakers

• Illinois Wesleyan would hold the tiebreaker over Wheaton due to a head to head sweep if they win (Tiebreaker 1).
• Augustana holds the tiebreaker over Elmhurst due to a head to head sweep (Tiebreaker 1).

I love it when the tiebreakers are nice and clean. The schedule I'm sure was made by a computer for the CCIW portion of the year, but it couldn't have done a better job. Wheaton has already locked up at least a portion of the regular season title for the third straight season, and can host its third straight CCIW Tournament if they hold serve at home. But the Titans already beat the Thunder once, and with a second win push the tournament down to Bloomington for the first time since 2012.

That Augie-Elmhurst tie is kind of an important one to break, but they won't know who they play until after the conclusion of Tuesday's games. A #4 seed has never won a tournament game, though that could change this year if the matchup is right, and the #3 seed has only ever pulled off four upsets in the first round and has never won the tournament. Other than intrigue and for matchup purposes, this tie isn't as major a factor, and all eyes will likely be on that Wesleyan-Wheaton matchup.

Men's Basketball

Last year's scenarios were fairly convoluted even though there was only one spot up for grabs. This year, two teams, including North Central, are fighting for the final spot, and none of the top three seeds are spoken for yet. The sad part for North Central is that their regular season schedule is complete, so they have no control over their own destiny. Their fate is in the hands of several other CCIW teams on Tuesday. Let's get into all the scenarios.

Augustana: Clinches the #1 seed with:

• A win at Illinois Wesleyan.
• A Carthage loss versus Wheaton AND a North Park loss versus Millikin.

Augustana: Clinches the #2 seed with:

• A Carthage loss versus Wheaton.
• A North Park loss versus Millikin.

Carthage: Clinches the #1 seed with:

• A win versus Wheaton AND an Augustana loss at Illinois Wesleyan.

Carthage: Clinches the #2 seed with:

• A win versus Wheaton.
• A North Park loss versus Millikin.

North Park: Clinches the #1 seed with:

• A win versus Millikin AND an Augustana loss at Illinois Wesleyan AND a Carthage loss versus Wheaton.

North Park: Clinches the #2 seed with:

• A win versus Millikin AND a Carthage loss versus Wheaton.

North Central: Clinches the #4 seed with:

• A Carroll loss at Elmhurst.
• A Wheaton win at Carthage.
• An Illinois Wesleyan win versus Augustana.

Carroll: Clinches the #4 seed with:

• A win at Elmhurst AND a Wheaton loss at Carthage AND an Illinois Wesleyan loss versus Augustana. 

Tiebreakers

• Carthage holds the tiebreaker over North Park due to a head to head sweep (Tiebreaker 1).
• North Park holds the tiebreaker over Augustana due to a head to head sweep (Tiebreaker 1).
• Carthage holds the tiebreaker over Augustana due to North Park's head to head sweep of Augustana; Carthage swept North Park (Tiebreaker 3).
• North Central would hold the tiebreaker over Carroll IF Wheaton or Illinois Wesleyan also tie at 9-7 (North Central is 3-1 head to head against Carroll and Wheaton/Illinois Wesleyan, Carroll is 2-2) (Tiebreaker 1).
• North Central would hold the tiebreaker over Carroll IF Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan also tie at 9-7 (North Central is 5-1 head to head against all three teams, Carroll is 3-3) (Tiebreaker 1).
• Carroll would hold the tiebreaker over North Central IF just those two teams tie at 9-7 due to Augustana's head to head sweep of North Central; Carroll split with Augustana (Tiebreaker 2).

Augustana has the easiest path to hosting their third straight CCIW Tournament: win and you get it. If they lose, things get complicated, where a Carthage win would then put the tournament up in Kenosha for the first time since 2010, and if they lose, North Park can get hosting rights in their first trip ever to the tournament if they win. In a three-way tie scenario, Augie could fall all the way to the #3 seed. Theoretically, all three of these teams can end up anywhere in that 1-3 range.

It's the final spot in the tournament that has the craziest story. For the second straight year, a team wanting in has absolutely no control over their fate, only this time it's because they aren't playing. North Central just needs any one of three different games to go their way, and they're in. Carroll, on the other hand, needs to win and get a couple games' worth of help. The advantage for Carroll is that the teams they need to win as well to get in are two of those top three teams that are fighting for hosting rights. Of course, Wheaton and Wesleyan have a chance to play spoiler. But at the end of the day, you shouldn't have to count on that. The Cardinals had a chance the past two Wednesdays to ultimately lock up a tournament bid without needing help, and they blew both of those games, going on to lose in overtime in each one. Fortunately the Cardinals held on yesterday to win in overtime and even get themselves into a position to make the tournament, but you never want your fate in someone else's hands.