North Central and the NCAA Regional Rankings: Week 1 Edition

We're well into February, which means it's time for the NCAA to start thinking about the basketball tournaments. This means it's regional ranking time, and it's a topic I'm delving into for the third straight year.

Every season, the NCAA releases three sets of regional rankings, and computes a fourth that they use for the NCAA Tournament selection process, but the first batch of rankings was just released this afternoon.

With these in mind, I want to look at teams' shots at the postseason.


Women's Basketball

Record: 10-10 overall, 4-7 CCIW (6th)
Central Region: Unranked (out of 9 teams)

It's just been a down year for the women, as they've dropped four straight going into tonight's matchup with an already eliminated Millikin. They need to win out to even have a prayer of making the tournament at this point, with Wheaton having already swept them, Carthage having split a pair, and the other three teams ahead of North Central having beaten the Cardinals once so far.

The CCIW is actually pretty well represented in the first regional rankings. Wheaton, given their record, is in fourth place, Illinois Wesleyan is right behind them in fifth (largely thanks to their very high strength of schedule, 9th in the country), and Elmhurst rounds out the Central region. I would have considered Augustana for the rankings as well, but they probably fell just outside the top nine. I would have bet before seeing this that the CCIW would only get one team into the Dance this year. Now... they might get a couple. With these numbers, even though records against regionally ranked foes aren't calculated yet, the Cardinals are 0-5 against regionally ranked opposition, which if you needed more of a case for why not to rank them, you've got one. Hopefully the Cardinals can right the ship, with games at home against Elmhurst and at Illinois Wesleyan coming up the next two Saturdays.

Men's Basketball

Record: 13-8 overall, 7-5 CCIW (4th)
Central Region: Unranked (out of 8 teams)

I didn't expect the Cardinals to be ranked on the men's side either. They played poorly for stretches of December and January, and having been without Connor Raridon for a significant chunk of the season has been a problem as well. But the Cardinals are clicking of late, having won four straight and five of six to climb back into CCIW Tournament conversation. North Central has the 14th-best RPI in the region and a reasonable strength of schedule, but according to that same linked metric for looking at NCAA Tournament chances, they're well on the outside looking in at this point. Eight losses is about as high as a team can get and still be considered for a Pool C bid, but to be at this point now is a problem. The Cardinals would have to win out to earn some consideration.

The Central Region is fairly well dominated by the WIAC, as usual, with River Falls in first, Whitewater in third, and Eau Claire fifth. The CCIW does have three representatives, however, with Augustana sitting in fourth, North Park in seventh, and Illinois Wesleyan eighth thanks to their strong non-conference performance. Interconference rival Benedictine is also sixth in the rankings. It's not calculated in these rankings, but the Cardinals are 3-2 against regionally ranked opposition, which isn't terrible. They can greatly improve their standing with a win at Augustana tonight, as well as taking care of business against Elmhurst on Saturday in the home finale. We'll have to check back again next week to see if this changes.