A Second Run Through the Gauntlet

This is a feature I've run almost annually since I started Confessions of a Sportscaster, but it's the first year with nine teams. I think that means we're getting this started a few days earlier than we have been. Of course, I'm also writing this a couple days after we got through the first CCIW runthrough.

CCIW play is a double round robin, so every team in the conference plays everyone else twice: once at home and once on the road. There were a few quirks this season where some teams have played five games at home or on the road in conference, but for the most part most teams have played four at home and four on the road. The rest of the way, the sites flip. So with that in mind, let's have a look at the CCIW standings and how North Central looks going into the second half.

Women's Basketball

If you look at where the Cardinals are placed in the standings, and at their record, the reality is exactly as it appears. The Cardinals are a true middle of the pack CCIW team eight games in. They've blown out last place Carroll and seventh place Millikin, both on the road, barely got past eighth place North Park at home, and edged out Carthage at home last week. They've then lost to the top four teams in the conference by a combined 39 points, with 22 of those coming this past Saturday at Elmhurst when the Cardinals had no answer for Mikaela Eppard. They had their closest game against Wheaton in recent memory back in December when the Thunder beat the Cardinals by five in Wheaton, and the Cardinals also have tough home losses to Illinois Wesleyan, who needed overtime to pull it off, and Augustana, who nearly blew a 20 point lead in the fourth quarter. Those have been relatively thin margins, and simple things like making their free throws or hitting just a couple more threes would have turned the tide in a couple of these games.

I think the Cardinals miss Mayson Whipple, who is out for the rest of the year with a knee injury, though they have still performed pretty well in her absence. Seniors like Paula Zerante have stepped up, and some of the younger guns like Jessica Dahle, Shannon Ryan, and Siarra O'Neill have picked up the slack in the backcourt. Meanwhile, the young post players like Diamond Calicott, Natali Dimitrova, and Selena Juarez are developing nicely, and seniors Jamie Cuny and Anita Sterling are playing so well, they forced Michelle Roof to move Maya Walls, who came in expected to play at the "5," over to the "3" to keep those two on the floor more while giving Walls the run time she has earned.

As I look at team stats, it's clear they miss Whipple's 12.3 points per game, but other players are still scoring. Sterling is averaging 9.5 a game, Zerante is at 8.1, with three players in the sevens and three more in the sixes. It makes it hard for opposing teams, because you can't shut down just one player and expect to win. You would normally look at the Cardinals' 28.3 percent rate from beyond the arc and conclude they're struggling, which has been true of late (though they shot 35 percent at Elmhurst), but that number is fairly consistent with what the Cardinals have shot in The System Era.

The number that aggravates me more, however, is free throw shooting. In the four System years, the team has shot between 65 and 68 percent from the stripe; this year they're at 60.1 percent. This is where the Cardinals miss Whipple; she was at 81 percent when she went down. There are still pretty good free throw shooters: Jamie Cuny is at 78 percent and Caroline Heimerdinger is at 73 percent. But there are too many holes elsewhere in this department: Paula Zerante leads the team in free throw attempts, but is hitting just 59 percent of her tries, Anita Sterling is second on the team in attempts, but is at a 58 percent clip, and Shannon Ryan is at Ben Wallace-levels with a 39.5 percent rate. If you credit the team with just 27 more made free throws, their percentage climbs to 66 percent, and you probably swing one or two games in the Cardinals' favor.

But you can only play the hand you're dealt, and the Cardinals have a tough hand the rest of the way. In addition to having to travel to Illinois Wesleyan and Augustana, North Central opens the second half of conference play at Carthage tomorrow night, and Tarble Arena has been a house of horrors stretching back to before my undergrad days. The other road game on record is North Park, but despite the margin in Naperville, the Vikings are not a good team this year. The home slate is a little more forgiving: Wheaton and Elmhurst are going to be tough, as the former hasn't lost to North Central since 2009, and the latter just blew out the Cardinals at their place. Fortunately the Cardinals also get home dates with Millikin, who isn't very good but did just beat Augustana, and Carroll, who is undermanned and outmatched.

Last year the Cardinals went into the second half at 3-4 and technically in seventh place, but won five of their next seven to steal the #3 seed in the CCIW Tournament. This year will be trickier; North Central is two games out of the fourth and final spot, and they are at a tiebreaker disadvantage, having lost to each of the top four. To have any chance at making the tournament, the Cardinals probably need to go at least 6-2 in the second half, which would mean beating those bottom four teams again and grabbing a pair against the top four. Since they get Elmhurst and Wheaton at home, those are the best opportunities, though it's not like the Cardinals can't win in Bloomington or Rock Island. It's just going to require this team going on a run like they did last year.

Men's Basketball

I wish I knew just what was going on here. This team has definitely underachieved this season after coming in with expectations to win the CCIW and possibly make a deep postseason run. Instead, they're mired in mediocrity. The Cardinals looked good to kick off CCIW play with a convincing win over Illinois Wesleyan, but they've been pretty bad since. They haven't won at home since that win over the Titans, which includes losses to the top two teams in the conference in Augustana and North Park. They also got beat at home by a Carthage team that is better than their 4-4 CCIW mark would indicate. Their road games haven't been much more forgiving; Carroll got a solid home win over the Cardinals a couple weeks ago, and North Central inexplicably lost to Elmhurst on Saturday. The team does have two wins on the road, though they've been harder than they should be against Millikin and Wheaton, against whom they needed double overtime last week.

Part of this is due to injury: Connor Raridon has missed the last 10 games with a broken hand, and odds are he may miss the rest of the season given the nature of the injury. What has also hurt has been Alex Sorenson struggling compared to last year; he's shooting below 50 percent from the floor and just 28 percent from deep, though he's still averaging 16.7 points and 8.4 rebounds per contest. Erwin Henry and Aiden Chang have provided some good depth scoring in his absence with both averaging double figures, and Jagger Anderson, when he's been healthy, has been solid at the point guard spot.

The Cardinals have been forced to use some of their depth, which has been decent, but not great. Nick Chambers can shoot (42 percent from beyond the arc), and Matt Cappelletti has turned into a double-double machine the last two games. The rest of the team doesn't score much, though guys like Jack Bronec have shown good flashes of being contributors so far this season.

The matchups are the same as with the women, but the situations are a little different. The Cardinals have to go to both Rock Island and the north side of Chicago to deal with the top two teams in the conference, with additional trips to Bloomington and Kenosha to deal with Illinois Wesleyan and Carthage, respectively. The Carver Center at Augustana was a house of horrors last year, and this Cardinal team has struggled against the Vikings lately. The Cardinals have to take advantage of home games against the bottom two teams in Elmhurst and Millikin, and they also get Wheaton and Carroll at home in the second half.

North Central being only one game out of a postseason berth bodes fairly well, but this team is going to need to catch fire in the second half. I'm talking at minimum 6-2 the rest of the way to get to 9-7, and even that might not be enough depending on what those three teams at 4-4 end up doing. A lot of this of course depends on whether or not Raridon can return this season or if guys like Sorenson, Henry, and Chang can elevate their level of play, or even if Matt Cappelletti can continue his strong play over the past week.