Tuesday, January 3, 2017

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Finale

Now that I'm back at work and have a chance to fully look over this, I wanted to wrap up the entire 2016 regular season with regards to our picks against the spread.

Week 17 was a final battle for first place, with everybody all within range of each other. And I have to tip my cap: Logan, who led by one game going into Sunday, was the only person to finish the week above .500, going 2-1 on hero picks and continued his dominance in minority picks to cement first place in his first running on Pigskin Pick 'Em. We even discussed his gutsy hero picks for the weeks, and he admitted he knew he was taking a risk with it. But it was a risk that paid off. He finished at 40 percent for the season on hero picks, but it was his dominance in minority games (games where and one other person picked a certain team), going 21-12, that propelled him to victory.

My dad and I only differed on three games, two of which I took, so he was unable to force the tie. Adam, meanwhile, did text me before the games started that he was taking all underdogs because clearly he's lost it. However, he screwed up on ESPN again, taking the Steelers instead of the Browns. Because he was up front with me about messing that up and had told me he was going all points this past week, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. Unfortunately for him, that's only good enough for third place, as we split what ended up being our ten disputed games.

It's too bad, because he dominated the hero picks. He went rogue 31 times, 11 more than our second place man in Grant. He won 17 of those games, 10 more than our second place person (Grant again). His conversion rate on those was only a few tenths of a percentage point ahead of me, but I only went hero 11 times. Adam's struggles in minority (25-29, the only person below .500) and majority (24-24, worst in the group) hurt his cause.

Finally, the number that jumps out at me: we suck at consensus picks. We were unanimous 53 times this season, but were only successful 26 times, only a 49 percent success rate. Nonetheless, the difference between first place and last place was only nine games, and the worst record was only four games below .500. That has to count for something.

So once again, I want to thank Logan and Grant for joining this group endeavor this season for the first time. It was nice to get a few more people involved in this one. I also want to thank my dad for filling in as the guest picker this past week in a pinch. And finally, I want to thank Adam for being my constant foil, for initially creating the spreadsheet that I updated every week to track how we picked in relation to each other, and for taking all of my "Traitor!" jokes in stride. While I still miss him being up here, I look forward to renewing the rivalry again in September!

Final Records
Logan: 135-121 (10-6 last week)
Lucas: 131-125 (7-9 last week)
Adam: 128-128 (7-9 last week)
Scott: 127-129 (6-10 last week)
Grant: 126-130 (7-9 last week)

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