CCIW Championship Preview

I've been involved in North Central Basketball for 6 years now. Of these 6 years, North Central has been in a total of 6 conference tournaments out of a possible 12, and this is the first time since 2009 that both the men and women made the cut to play for a conference title and a shot at the CCIW crown. So with the tournaments starting up today in Kenosha, Wisconsin and Bloomington, Illinois, I wanted to preview both tournaments.

Women's Basketball
Predicted: 11-14, 5th in CCIW
Actual: 13-12, 4th in CCIW
CCIW Tournament Program

I knew the potential was there for this team but I wasn't sure honestly if they were going to be able to sneak their way into the tournament, but here they are. The conference wasn't too deep overall this year, since North Central got in with a 6-8 CCIW mark. They beat the bad teams (Augustana and Millikin), split with the rivals for this final spot (North Park and Elmhurst), and got swept by the other teams in the tournament.

Due largely to sheer shot volume, this team led the conference (and I think also the nation) in scoring, but also gave up more than their fair share of points. Going up against tough opponents like they will tonight (and tomorrow if they pull an upset) tended to lead to numerous easy layups for the opposition. But of the 6 games against tournament foes this season, the home date with Carthage was the closest game and it showed the Lady Reds were vulnerable, but they played an awful game that night and it showed when Carthage blew them out up in Kenosha.

Either way, given the change in system this year with a lot of youth on this team, to have snuck into the tournament the way they did is a good sign for the future, even if tonight doesn't go as planned. They still have a lot of key players with a year or 2 left, so this team probably isn't going anywhere, especially if recruiting stays in good shape.

Lucas' Prediction: First round exit, but a bright future ahead for this team.

Men's Basketball
Predicted: 20-5, 1st in CCIW
Actual: 22-3, 2nd in CCIW
CCIW Tournament Program

I guess I went a little conservative with both of these teams, underestimating each by a couple wins, but what I really didn't expect was the kind of run that Illinois Wesleyan went on in conference play, running the table up until Tuesday when North Central took care of them in overtime. I only got to see a half of play from this team, but North Central can ball.

Looking at the numbers though, this team doesn't seem like quite the same squad as last year, though I think they are a little deeper. CJ Goldthree's transfer and Kevin Gillespie's graduation took away some key guys, but the return of Jack Burchett and the quick development of guys like Brandon Williams and Jack Merrithey made up for those losses. The scary thing looking across the past two seasons is the drop in shooting percentages outside of Landon Gamble continuing to be the best offensive big man in the conference. 3 point percentage dropped as a whole from last year to only 34%, with Aaron Tiknis regressing to the mean (he shot over 50 percent last year from outside and is down to 35 this year) and Vince Kmiec not shooting quite as well (down to 31%). The more concerning number is free throw percentage though, as the team is shooting just 66.5% from the line. Landon Gamble has improved from there but Derek Raridon is shooting and uncharacteristic 77% on freebies (he's been automatic in the past).

This team is still tops defensively in the CCIW and their 3 losses on the year all came on the road in conference play. Wheaton won at their place but needed overtime, Wesleyan won at the Shirk Center already, and the Cardinals had an uncharacteristic loss to Carthage up in Kenosha, albeit with some injuries. This is going to be a very competitive tournament, and really any of these teams have a shot at winning.

Given the Cardinals' national ranking over the course of the season being no lower than 11th (they are 5th right now) and their 4th place ranking in the region (never mind that we learned again this year that regional rankings are total crap), they should make the Dance again regardless of what happens in Bloomington. Wesleyan and probably Wheaton both will likely see play beyond this weekend as well, and I wouldn't be too surprised if Augustana sneaks in as well, but it's always nice to secure an automatic bid. I talked to Clark Teuscher of North Central and he told me he did put in a proposal to be a host site for the NCAA Tournament, but we won't find out if they will host anything until Monday, so I may have more basketball writings coming up.

Lucas' Prediction: Winners of CCIW Tournament, Host at least one round of NCAA Tournament games, Elite 8.

If you can't make it out to Bloomington or Kenosha (and trust me, I was tempted to make the drive up to Kenosha tonight), my old friends at WONC Sports will be calling both of North Central's games tonight. The men take on Wheaton at 5:00, while the women battle Carthage at 7:00. The guys they have out calling these games are all well-trained and definitely know what they're doing (let's just say I chose the leadership of that department before I graduated well) and should bring a great picture of the game and hopefully 4 wins this weekend.

Good luck to Coach Raridon, Coach Roof, and all the players taking part this weekend. Go Cardinals!