College Football Non-Conference Power Rankings: Week 12

My old image that I had been using for this feature disappeared, so I had to find a different image. Fortunately that was about all that went wrong this weekend from a football standpoint. Saturday saw chaos atop the B(C)S again, while at the D-III level my North Central Cardinals earned the automatic bid to the playoffs by beating Augustana while Elmhurst knocked off Illinois Wesleyan. I still wait for next year to get back the Bell though.

But this reminder of the glory of D-III football shows once again how great a playoff system could be for the FBS. I think the system would need to be tweaked quite a bit (we're probably looking at trimming down the regular season and a conference realignment would be ideal, though not realistic) before we get it perfect. Based on the system in place though, I think 16 teams would have to be the ideal size so everyone has a chance at a national title and we're not leaving anyone out that deserves a bid.

With just a couple weeks left, here's how the conferences and their scheduling to date shake up.

1. WAC (7.43)- San Jose State hosts BYU and Texas State visits Navy.
2. Sun Belt (7)- No change.
3. Conference-USA (6.75)- No change.
4. MAC (6.62)- No change.
5. Big East (6.5)- South Florida visits Miami (Florida), Temple visits Army, and Syracuse visits Missouri.
6. Mountain West (5.5)- No change.
7. Big Ten (4.58)- No change.
8. ACC (3.92)- Wake Forest visits Notre Dame and Miami hosts South Florida.
9. Pac-12 (3.17)- No change, but a correction was made (see playoff seedings below for the explanation).
10. SEC (2.86)- Missouri hosts Syracuse, but Alabama, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Auburn, Texas A&M, and Kentucky are all hosting FCS teams.
11. Big XII (2.6)- No change.

That looks a little more like the stereotype we associate with the SEC. With that done, here's how the playoff would appear if the season ended today. Remember, in accordance with Dan Wetzel's Death to the BCS system, the 11 conference champions get automatic berths, and then we add 5 at large teams to fill out the field. The obvious goal is to win your conference, but one loss won't completely trip you up unless every independent runs the table, which will probably never happen. Important factors for seeding and earning an at-large berth include who you beat, who you lost to, what your usual margin of victory is, and your Non-Conference Schedule Score (NCSS), which is averaged into each conference's score above. A higher number means you've played more major conference teams and/or played on the road outside of your conference in more games. Last week's rankings can be found here.

1. Kansas State (10-0, Big 12 Champion, NCSS: 2, LW: 2): A less than impressive early slate gave way to a nice run through the Big XII to this point. They're a top 10 team in scoring and top 15 in scoring defense, picking up a tough win in Oklahoma and exposing teams like West Virginia. Of the 3 unbeatens, their NCSS is in the middle of the pack, but they're probably the most complete unbeaten.
2. Notre Dame (10-0, At Large, NCSS: 21, LW: 3): This continues to be a tough projection and one that is certainly subject to change given schedules these last couple weeks. Notre Dame has had to avoid a couple of scares in overtime and they aren't really going to blow anyone out, but they have done a fantastic job of shutting down opposing offenses. The prospect of having 3 playoff games in South Bend? Sounds fantastic.
3. Oregon (10-0, Pac-12 Champion, NCSS: 1, LW: 4): Going through my scores, I realized I'd made a mistake with Oregon's score for the past few weeks that has now been corrected (I mistakenly had Tennessee Tech as an FBS team as opposed to their actual FCS status, which really hurts Oregon's non-conference slate). These guys continue to score at an alarming rate (almost 55 points a game, best in the FBS) but are prone to giving up points in bunches as well. Their final 2 games do intrigue me, so they could certainly jump up a spot if the status quo holds, but we'll have to see.
4. Georgia (9-1, SEC Champion, NCSS: 2, LW: 6): Based on SEC games played, Georgia and Florida are in a tie for 1st in the SEC, and Georgia owns the head to head tiebreaker. Other than getting killed by South Carolina, these guys have played a very balanced game and are very good in all facets. Their non-conference schedule is about to take a dip, but they do deserve at least some credit.
5. Alabama (9-1, At Large, NCSS: 4, LW: 1): Considering the circumstances, to only fall as far as 5th is pretty good. Their schedule to this point has been pretty good in fairness, though their final 2 games because of the degree of difficulty (considering it's West Carolina and Auburn left, the degree is probably about a 0.5 out of 10) could drop them further. But regardless of all that, even though I was thrilled that Bama lost yesterday, I'd be foolish to say they still don't deserve a spot in the playoffs, given that they're on the verge of an SEC title game berth still.
6. Florida (9-1, At Large, NCSS: 2, LW: 7): A good run through the conference for these guys other than the Georgia loss. They have a cupcake and a tough one with FSU left, so they could still possibly sneak in as an at-large team at the end of the season even though the Gators won't have a berth in the SEC title game (Georgia already locked it up).
7. Nebraska (8-2, Big Ten Champion, NCSS: 4, LW: 12): This was a hard spot to plug in, considering the remaining 1-loss teams. A lot of them don't have great schedules, so I went for a good conference champion. Nebraska has some pretty good wins (that 3 point one over Wisconsin, currently leading their division) being the main one, but even their 2 losses aren't that bad (a good UCLA team and undefeated Ohio State).
8. Stanford (8-2, At Large, NCSS: 5, LW: NR): I can't tell you how underwhelmed I am looking at the resumes of these last few 1 loss teams are. I had to go down to all the 2 loss teams before stumbling on a Stanford squad that likely took Oregon State out of the playoff picture and beat USC early on, with losses to Notre Dame (of to this day questionable reasons) and before that to a mediocre Washington team. They control their own destiny the rest of the way with contests against Oregon and UCLA left. A loss to Oregon likely pushes them out of the picture, but you never know with this stuff.
9. Kent State (9-1, MAC Champion, NCSS: 7, LW: NR): The MAC champ changes again since Kent State matched NIU and Kent State has had a tougher slate than NIU has. It looks better to have lost a heartbreaker by 1 to Iowa in the opener a la NIU than to get killed by Kentucky Week 2 like the Golden Flashes did, but Kent State had a nice win at Army and a big win at Rutgers to push them past NIU. Those 2 teams are on pace to collide in the conference title game but for right now I can't put NIU in here.
10. Rutgers (9-1, Big East Champion, NCSS: 6, LW: NR): Hard call again here for seeding, and while Rutgers doesn't have the kind of signature win you'd want in this spot, I decided to take them over the #11 team due to out of conference scheduling. Rutgers' one loss was to Kent State (hence why the Flashes are above them). That big game with Louisville still looms, and that could be a major player in where this team ultimately gets seeded... or if they even get in.
11. Florida State (9-1, ACC Champion, NCSS: 1, LW: 10): The 'Noles are still getting punished for their pair of FCS opponents to start the year. That big win over Clemson was big in pretty much guaranteeing a berth in the conference title game, but with that being the only major win it does hurt their seed and force a road game in the opening round, at least for now.
12. Louisville (9-1, At Large, NCSS: 7, LW: 5): The fall of the Cardinals from the ranks of the unbeaten hurts, but I gave them the edge over other 1-loss teams due to better scheduling (NIU) and actually having a good win over someone (Clemson). It was hard to bump those guys for a 2 loss team, but I have to consider the whole body of work. It's not easy and someone unfortunately has to get bumped.
13. Central Florida (8-2, Conference-USA Champion, NCSS: 8, LW: 14): They've scheduled pretty well, but their 2 toughest games (at Ohio State and hosting Missouri) both resulted in losses. Since then, though, they've romped through the conference and should have the conference title game in their future unless they lose to Tulsa this coming week (who is on pace to also make the title game). They own the tiebreaker against East Carolina in their division with the head to head win, but you'd rather avoid that scenario.
14. Louisiana Tech (9-1, WAC Champion, NCSS: 12, LW: NR): They played a fantastic out of conference slate with just the 2 point loss to Texas A&M. The problem arises in how they've beaten everybody. It's been shootout after shootout for this squad to the point where they are almost at the bottom of the FBS in points allowed. This is a team that gives up more than its share of touchdowns, and while they've avoided losing for the most part, those holes in their defense is a factor that can't be ignored and is why they are seeded as low as they are.
15. Arkansas State (7-3, Sun Belt Champion, NCSS: 6, LW: NR): Their win over Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday put the Red Wolves into the playoffs. Two of their losses are to current conference "champions", so in a system where everything else is relatively equal with the 16 seed, I took that as the tiebreaker to get Arkansas State here.
16. Fresno State (8-3, Mountain West Champion, NCSS: 6, LW: 15): With Boise State 2 weeks removed from a playoff berth and a switch in the Sun Belt champion, I shuffled the Bulldogs down a spot. They get a week off to recover now before playing Air Force to close out the regular season.

Teams that dropped out of the playoffs from last week: Oregon State, Clemson, Northern Illinois, Utah State, Louisiana-Monroe.

Interestingly enough, we had another week where 5 teams fell to be replaced in the playoffs, with some teams that had previously fallen returning to the mix. With a couple weeks of regular season games left, plus the conference title games, things can still be reshaped. If you think a team that I left out deserves to be in/a team I gave a berth to didn't deserve one, or if you think I should reseed teams in some fashion, you can comment so below or send me a tweet. I shouldn't get to have all the fun here, after all.

As we observe Veterans Day today by some people taking off work (I'm not that fortunate), let's take a moment to remember and thank those that have served this wonderful country and put their lives on the line to defend our freedom and give people like me the continued right to talk about sports on COAS. To any current or former members of our military reading this post, thank you for your sacrifice.