Super Bowl Predictions and Prop Bets

Disclaimer: These bets are being used for the purposes of competition on ESPN.com's Super Pick 'Em. No money is being wagered for the purposes of this competition. You know, the whole "gambling being illegal" thing.

I was looking for something to do in conjunction with my Super Bowl prediction this year, and happened to notice on ESPN's website that they are hosting a game to pick some of the fun prop bets they've picked out, and I figured why not. Those will be featured below (after the jump), but I do want to focus on the most important part of the weekend: the Super Bowl itself. The line for this week's game comes from footballlocks.com.

Baltimore Ravens vs San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
With a neutral site game, you can fully get what Vegas expects out of a matchup between two teams, since home field generally gives you 3 points to play with. I think the line sounds about right in the grand scheme of things, even if you go by some books that have the line at 4.

I really like the intrigue this matchup brings, and it goes beyond the already kind of worn out "HarBowl" moniker that this game has been given. The Niners were an elite defensive team that could out-physical most teams but had a question mark at quarterback in Alex Smith, but that question was definitively answered when Smith suffered a concussion and Colin Kaepernick Tom Brady'd Smith and the Niners have turned into probably the most complete team coming into the playoffs. On paper, the Niners are the better team. But that's what makes sports fun: games aren't played on paper.

The Ravens looked going into January like they'd be a fairly early out since they struggled to close out the regular season and didn't seem to have the momentum that most recent Super Bowl champs have had. Then Ray Lewis announced his retirement effective at the end of the season, and it gave the Ravens a little something extra to play for, like #Chuckstrong did in Indy for much of the year. When you combine that and his rejuvenation for this final run with the kind of tear Joe Flacco is on, this team is dangerous. San Francisco has shown they can be thrown on when the game is competitive. Aaron Rodgers did it for a while in the divisional round, and Matt Ryan did it in the first half of the conference title game. Niners fans would be delusional to think the Ravens can't move the ball through the air.

That's what makes this matchup so interesting. When you combine all these factors, it seems like we're bound for another game decided on the final possession. When it comes down to the winner, I have to go with the better team, but that emotional factor will likely allow Baltimore to at least cover the spread here.

Prediction:49ers 24, Ravens 21

Record So Far
6-4 straight up (1-1 last round)
139-126-1 against the spread (1-0-1 last round, 5-4-1 playoffs)

Walking For a Cause... Or Two

All of us at times in our lives put down all distractions and fight for causes we believe in. We may raise money to fight terrible diseases or to attack injustices towards others. While much of my time here on COAS is spent talking about sports and maybe a little towards fighting for justice and equality (...okay, maybe just because I want a college football playoff), there are times I want to take a step back and look at more important issues in society and share with you the things I fight for.

I've talked on here a couple times about my brother, Logan, who continues his fight against Duchenne muscular dystrophy. It's a daily battle to help him out with things he can no longer physically do, knowing the rough road that lies ahead for him. That's why, whenever the opportunity arises, I join with my family to help in Logan's fight and the fight of many other children affected by various forms of neuromuscular disease. The fundraiser most people know of is the Jerry Lewis Labor Day Telethon, that has downsized tremendously in recent years, but there are many other events that the Muscular Dystrophy Association holds to raise money for research, medical care, and their summer camps that Logan says is his favorite week of the year.

On Saturday, April 6, I will join with my family and friends, as well as many other families affected by neuromuscular disease at Soldier Field for the 2013 MDA Muscle Walk. We will do a 5K that morning as we fight for kids like Logan who need our help.

"I have watched Logan have trouble maintaining his balance and fall.  I have watched him struggle to climb a flight of stairs.  I have watched him lose the ability to do so many things that most of us take for granted.  And I have watched him become fully dependent on a wheelchair because his muscles no longer have the strength to support his body weight.
But I have also watched Logan smile, an infectious smile that is almost always present on his face.  I have watched him assert his independence to continue to do the things that he is still able to do on his own.  My son is determined.  His spirit is strong.  His love of life insurmountable.  And because he can't walk, I WALK FOR HIM!" -Scott Mitzel

If you want to help us in our fight for Logan, you can visit our team page and either sign up to walk with us, or donate however much you are willing and able to give. Every dollar counts, and goes towards helping kids like Logan. Together with us, you can make a muscle... and make a difference.

But while I will be on the lakefront that Saturday morning, a part of me will also be hundreds of miles away to fight for another cause I firmly believe in.

Halfway Through the Gauntlet

Like I did last year, I wanted to get some writing in about how both the men's and women's basketball teams at NCC stack up now that they've been through everyone in the CCIW at least once. It's been a fun season, to say the least. As they prepare for one more run through the Gauntlet, here's how everything looks halfway through.

Women's Basketball

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Considering the new system in place, flaws and all, I'm okay with how this team has done overall this season. Getting smoked by Illinois Wesleyan and Wheaton hurt, though I'm not surprised, given that they earned a combined 7 of the 8 first place votes in the preseason poll. Every other game in conference has been an entertaining, hard fought contest. Looking at these standings, the thing that really surprises me is Carthage. Considering how flat they looked for stretches against the Cardinals, I'm a little surprised they're [6-0] in CCIW play. Then again, a Wheaton team that took North Central behind the woodshed got their butts handed to them by a not-that-great Augustana team. Despite the absence of a team in the Top 25, this conference has a lot of good teams and anyone is capable of beating anyone else.

So, at 3-4, let's go with a conservative estimate of how CCIW play unfolds and say that the Cardinals lose at home to Wesleyan and at Wheaton, putting them at 3-6. Considering how the first Carthage game went, it's not too much of a stretch to think they could win up in Kenosha, and those other 4 games are all winnable. Depending on how the rest of the league plays, 8-6 might get you into the CCIW tournament. With this team it's no guarantee, but I certainly think it's doable. As long as the Cardinals keep up their well-adjusted game plan on offense and don't get killed too badly by easy layups off of breaking the press, they can play beyond mid-February (and depending on schedule and location, might mean a road trip is in order. We'll see.)

Final Prediction for NCC: 14-11, 7-7 CCIW (5th)

Men's Basketball

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The past few years has seen an established top of the conference, but looking at the current standings, Illinois Wesleyan somehow ran the first half table, which is amazing, and then you have North Central. After that there's a big grouping of everyone else pretty much. I think you could make an argument that the CCIW is the best conference in the nation, with 3 or 4 teams in the Top 25 at any given time, and North Central having been no lower than their season-opening mark of 6th in the nation, though that will go down after the loss to Wesleyan.

Personally I was shocked at NCC's first loss of the year (at Carthage, who's in that jumble in the middle) given where they were at to start the year, but it serves as a reminder of how tough this league is. 14-0 is all but impossible given how tough going on the road to any of these gyms is (yes, even North Park Middle School, as Geoffy loves to call it.) Now that the Cardinals are getting healthy again (Aaron Tiknis missed a couple games, and Derek Raridon dealt with a shoulder injury for a while) this team could conceivably still host the conference tournament, but it would require a win at home against Wesleyan and Wesleyan to lose a couple other games. I highly doubt the Titans will run the table the rest of the way; this league is just too good overall.

Final Prediction for NCC: 22-3, 11-3 CCIW (2nd)

Game Notes: Millikin University @ North Central College (1/23/13)

Final Score
NCC 92, Millikin 68


Game Summary
This was a slow starting game for the Cardinals (10-8, 3-4) as the only lead they took in the first half was at 3-2. The Big Blue (5-12, 0-7) were able to trade baskets with the Cardinals early on until the Cardinals got to within 4 again at 18-14. Millikin then went on a run that stretched from 7-0 to 11-2 and a 13 point lead. The Cardinals were able to pull back to within 8 at 35-27. Coach Roof said she didn't say anything in particular to really fire up the team, but they came out much better in the second half to eventually tie the game at 47 and take a 50-49 lead with about 12 minutes left. North Central would not trail again, instead slowly building an insurmountable lead.

Key Stats

• Emily Murphy (NCC): 7-8 FG, 14 pts, 2 reb (1 ofr), 1 stl. One adjustment I've loved seeing as the year has gone on is the Cardinals developing an inside game. Larynn Shumaker struggled from the floor tonight (4-11), so seeing Murphy pick up the slack was big, even if she didn't do much on the glass. It takes pressure off the 3 point shooters.
• Lauren Hernandez (NCC): 4-9 FG (4-7 3PT), 12 pts, 1 reb (ofr), 1 ast, 1 stl. In the second half, Lauren's line was one of the major catalysts for the comeback, and her accuracy from deep was a major reason why. She was left wide open on a few occasions and made Millikin pay.
• Sophie Newson (NCC): 2-6 FG (1-4 3PT), 2-2 FT, 7 pts, 2 reb, 2 ast, 1 blk, 1 stl. Looking just at this line, you wouldn't think Sophie was one of the keys, but her impact came in a stat that North Central really should be keeping. I love watching her play defense, as she plays incredibly well and is usually good for a charge or 2 per game. Tonight she took 5. It was incredible. I was always taught at Aurora Christian that taking a charge is easily the greatest defensive play you can make and it's a trait I hope she passes along to her teammates after this season.

North Central System Watch

• Line Changes: 49. I would have counted an extra one, but Tye Thompson (the official scorer) didn't count one last line change towards the end. Either way, Coach Roof has really upped the pace of substitutions as the year has gone along. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, though it can lead to getting rid of a hot line.
• NCC 3PT: 9-37 (24.3%). Not a great outing here, but given that they started 2-14 from deep at one point in the first half, to finish at that mark is pretty good. The most important thing here though was that the made three's came at opportune times late in the game to put it away.
• Millikin Turnovers: 47. This is a new season high for the Cardinals, and 29 of these came after halftime. The Big Blue just seemed to get more and more careless as the game went on, and most importantly the Cardinals took advantage of the late chances.

Final Thoughts 
This was an ugly game in the first half, and was pretty depressing at the time. The team responded between halves though and came out firing late. The press can be brutal against teams if they don't know how to break it well, and the Cardinals did what they needed to do. I talked to Coach Roof after the game and mentioned to her how I want to help shift momentum at home any way I can as part of public address, and she said she wanted to nominate me as "Announcer of the Year", a title I would be happy to take. But really, none of it is possible without the players on the floor who give it their all and try to not only give me fuel to pump them and the crowd up, but also to use that fuel to push themselves up a notch. I'm just happy to help and try to give them something of a home court advantage.

To be 3-4 at the halfway mark of conference play is all right, given the toughness of this conference, though this team could easily be (and the argument could be made that they should be) 5-2 in CCIW play. As it is though, it's been a much better year than last year. This team still has potential. I'll go over both the women's and men's programs and how they rank in the CCIW tomorrow.

Where Do the Lies End, and the Truth Begins?

Editor's note/warning: Parts of the following post will use quotes from an anime that I enjoy even though it confuses the hell out of me. This is probably because one has to be on some sort of mind-altering substances to fully understand what's going on in it. Please keep this in mind and don't judge me. There is a point to all this, I swear.

"You're Puss in Boots, the one who tricks the prince. He hides who he really is and pretends to be someone else forever. So in time he becomes that person, so his lie becomes the truth, see? He transcends the mask. Well, don't you get it? That's how he finds happiness. That's pretty good, right?"
-Eri Ninamori, FLCL

When I was trying to comprehend what all this news out of South Bend or Hawaii means, I ended up coming back to this show about a boy's coming of age, but also deals a lot with relationships and a lot of other things that are weird and deeply confusing. So it seemed like it fit well with the news and conflicting reports of what exactly happened.

It's far too soon to know what to make out of this news story without all the facts, but this much appears to be clear: the woman known as Lennay Kekua did not exist, but whose legend was built up as quickly as Notre Dame's "championship" credentials and Manti Te'o's Heisman campaign this college football season.

Theories abound as to what the truth actually is, and there seem to be 3 prevailing theories.

1. Manti Te'o is an idiot who fell for someone who wasn't who they claimed to be and was too naive to question it. I don't think this one is the case, I'd like to belive he's smarter than that, but it's certainly possible.
2. Manti Te'o is actually gay, and Lennay Kekua was a cover for it. Could be, given the stigma homosexuality still seems to have in sports. Regardless of your views on homosexuality and whether you think it's right or not, we should not villify or hate the person involved.
3. Manti Te'o knowingly participated in a hoax about all this as a publicity stunt with hopes for a Heisman, team accolades, and boosted NFL draft stock, or some combination of the above. I hope this isn't the case, but something is off about the whole situation that could mean this is true, and we have another situation of football being too prioritized in this culture.

It's impossible to know how involved Te'o actually was at this point, but his stories are contradicting themselves over time. Something is up. None of us know what, but this story is so riveting, given how duped the media as a whole was about this story. There have been retractions about it all everywhere, as well as contradictions from varying sources until Deadspin broke this story yesterday on my train ride home.

To quote FLCL's protagonist, Naota: "I don't know where the lies end and the truth begins." But I'm anxious to find out.

NFL Conference Championship Preview

It's been kind of fun, in addition to watching the playoff games so far (where this, objectively, was one of the better weekends of playoff football) has been the head coaching carousel given how many teams let their leaders go. I'm thrilled that Andy Reid and his clock mismanagement antics can still be celebrated, that offensive bosses now have a chance to run some shows elsewhere, and hopefully make jokes about Marc Trestman as the new Bears head honcho.

So before I get into my predictions for Sunday, my wish for him, other than medicore finishes for the next 4 years or so because I'm a Packer fan and love trolling Bears fans, is that I get as much mileage out of "Now remember, the goal of the game is to get the ball into the endzone, and to prevent your opponent from doing the same," as I got out of "We're getting ready to start the first quarter of the first quarter of our season. We like our team. Jay is our quarterback. We have a lot of football left to play."

As was the case the past few weeks, I'm picking both winners and against the spread. Spreads taken from footballlocks.com.

Game Notes: Augustana College @ North Central College (1/12/13)

Final Score
NCC 105, Augustana 98

Game Summary
In what was a tight contest early, the Vikings (5-9, 1-3) were able to break the press early on and get plenty of easy baskets, but the Cardinals (8-7, 1-3) played probably their best offensive game of the year with both inside scoring and good jump shooting. The teams traded small leads and tied 5 times before the Cardinals took the lead for good with a 12-3 run over the final three and a half minutes of the first half to lead 55-46 at the break. In the second half the Cardinals came out guns blazing to get the lead up to 18 points. The lead ballooned to over 20 on a few occasions and it was enough to overcome a late surge by Augustana to hold on for the first win in conference play this season.

Key Stats

• Larynn Shumaker (NCC): 8-13 FG, 4-7 FT, 20 pts, 5 reb (4 ofr), 1 ast, 1 blk. After a rough night on Wednesday (4-11 shooting), Larynn flat out dominated last night. She is an excellent post player and has consistently shown great post moves all season long, and was able to get her shots to fall last night, including a couple nice and-1's. The offensive rebounds helped out a lot as well.
• Jenny Swanson (NCC): 4-9 FG (all 3PT), 12 pts, 2 reb, 1 ast, 1 stl. Having watched Jenny play for 4 years, plus having the opportunity to rebound for her a few times, I know she can shoot incredibly well. It had been a struggle for her (and really, the whole team) much of the year and tonight the work finally paid off. She hit a few big three's in some key moments and was one of the catalysts along with Maryssa Cladis (3-6 from deep, 13 pts) and Kim Wilson (also 3-6, 12 pts).
• Chaney Tambling (AUG): 9-13 FG, 0-2 FT, 18 pts, 6 reb (3 ofr), 2 stl, 1 blk. The run of success for opposing post players continues. A lot of these were against the press, but she was able to get some easy baskets in the halfcourt set as well. On a night like this, the Cardinals can overcome big games from opposing forwards, but it's still a troubling trend.

North Central System Watch

• Line Changes: 49. There were a lot more subs last night compared to normal (which is saying something, given the average is probably 40 or so line changes a game). It got to the point that before the game Coach Roof asked me to not name everybody coming in after about the 3rd or 4th substitution and replace it with "a wholesale line change for the Cardinals). I also found out when Jackie Errico came over to tell us the starting lineup that they have a chart of line changes that they use to avoid what I'm sure would be mass confusion if they didn't have one. They even have charts for a blowout or an "emergency" situation (probably if someone gets injured).
• NCC 3pt: 13-35 (37.1%). This is low in terms of attempts for this team, but it worked out in this game. That percentage is the second highest all season so far (they shot 17 of 40 from downtown in a 94-77 win at Luther College in November). Pretty much all these three's were in the flow of the offense, and I think they've really found a nice rhythm in terms of ball movement and a decent shot selection as this season has gone on.
• Augie Turnovers: 40. Of the 40, 21 were off Cardinal steals, and 10 of NCC's 15 active players recorded at least one steal and 5 with multiple steals (Bobbi Johns led the team with 5.) The other astounding number off that 40 turnovers (which is the 2nd highest total so far this year after the Dominican game) was that 22 of the 40 giveaways were committed by Augie's starting backcourt. The press allows a lot of easy layups for the opposition, but it forces a ton of turnovers; the lowest total so far this year was 25 in the season-opening loss to Olivet.

Final Thoughts
Lauren Hernandez did not play last night after hurting her knee in the Carthage loss on Wednesday, but she looked to be in good spirits and was walking okay on her own power, so hopefully the injury isn't serious and she can return soon.

On Wednesday this Augustana team beat Wheaton pretty handily, even leading by about 20 at one point. This is the same Wheaton team that destroyed North Central last week. Basketball is a weird sport. Nonetheless the Cardinals topped last year's win total with 10 games left. Obviously the CCIW is a very talented conference and this team will have to bring their A-game night in and night out, but if they play like they did for much of the night last night the Cardinals could surprise some people.