COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 13

We are coming down the stretch with 5 weeks left in the NFL season. It's been a fun, but also incredibly confusing year. Nathaniel and I have had our up and down weeks all season long but the standings have stayed almost the same, with me holding a decent but not separated enough lead currently standing at 7 games after he picked .500 ball over the holiday weekend and I was a game back while in the frozen tundra.

If you haven't yet, a fun resource to check out is ESPN's Playoff Machine, which lets you pick out winners over the remainder of the season and let the playoff scenarios unfold from there. It's good to see theoretically what a team needs to do to win, but it's also a fun toy to mess around with and see how crazy you can make the playoff picture. I can't sabotage too much this year, but I made a scenario as effed up as I possibly could here. Some teams are so up in the standings it's impossible to drop them out of the race, so I did what I could to put teams with no realistic shot into the 12 team fray. Nathaniel clearly had the same idea, and his scenarios are here, some of which might be a lot better than mine.

So without further ado, we return to reality and look at the slate of games this week. We only disagree on 5 games this week, so we must be in pretty good sync. That must explain why when we were playing football Wednesday afternoon we had 5 offensive drives that lasted a combined 8 plays (the first 4 were 1 play touchdown drives, the other took 4).

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)

Lucas: Saints. One of these days I'll learn that the Falcons have otherworldly powers at home in the regular season. I'm going to play off of that and assume the Saints try to go up by 7 with a field goal with 2 minutes to go, only the field goal gets blocked and run back for a touchdown to put Atlanta up 3 and the Saints can't close.

Nathaniel: Saints. I'll admit it. I get a sick rush whenever I pick against the Falcons and they find some crazy way to cover by a half point each and every week. I love it when they get consistently outplayed but win anyway because they choke less than the other team. I WANT these picks to fail. C'mon, Matt Ryan. Don't let me down now!

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)

Lucas: Jaguars. So, we have 2 bad defenses... and one team is favored by a touchdown? And since Chad Henne is likely at the Jaguars' helm, why is Buffalo favored by that much? I don't get Vegas/ESPN. 

Nathaniel: Jaguars. If Chad Henne's proven anything in his five-year NFL career, it's that he's good enough to lift your team to six or seven wins a year. Progress in Jacksonville!

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (-4.5)

Lucas: Seahawks. Jay is back for the Bears, which helps, but it seems like half the rest of the team is wounded. Combine that with Seattle having two of its defensive backs while their PED appeals are heard and it sounds like the recipe for a cover, if not an upset.

Nathaniel: Seahawks. No, there's nothing wrong with facing a great pass rush a week after half of your offensive line died, why do you ask?

Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions (-4.5)

Lucas: Lions. For his next trick, Ndamukong Suh will punch an offensive lineman out of his way following the snap, then facemask Andrew Luck to the ground and stomp him in the stomach because of something Luck said on the previous play, earning the first ever lifetime ban from the NFL. That seems entirely reasonable, right? 

Nathaniel: Lions. The Lions don't have any cheerleaders with which to shave heads in support of leukemia awareness, so #Chuckstrong's powers should be immune here. On the other hand, Jim Schwartz's powers of not knowing what plays he can or can't challenge will still be on full display, so all things considered this might be a push.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-9.5)

Lucas: Vikings. Maybe I'm being a little over-reactionary to the Packers getting embarrassed on national TV by the Giants again. Maybe Jared Allen just scares me given how Green Bay's offensive line has been. I just think this line is a little too high right now.

Nathaniel: Vikings. Another incident of a big line scaring me into taking the points. And, yes, I pick the Vikings knowing full well their best receiver right now might be Devin Aromashodu. Just like the 2009 Bears! Ah, that blissful season...

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (+5.5)

Lucas: Texans. "Hi, I'm Matt Schaub. Every year, thousands of men are kicked really hard in the balls. Not only is the pain immense, but it can do some serious damage to your body. The biggest problem is that it can happen to anybody. It happened to me. If you call the number on your screen now, you can help kicked balls in need. Your generous donation can provide relief and support to these men doubled over in pain. Don't let these balls suffer. Call now."

Nathaniel: Titans. Houston's defense has fallen off a cliff the past two weeks. I haven't seen Danieal Manning this flustered since he was blowing coverages in Super Bowl XL1. Ah, that blissful heartbreaking loss...

Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5)

Lucas: Panthers. We got away with this one last week since Cam Newton decided to go off. Against a team as bad as Kansas City, maybe Cam will end up signing autographs in the parking lot too.

Nathaniel: Panthers. Carolina's hitting the cushiest part of their schedule JUUUUUUSSSSSSTTTT in time to avoid a top-5 draft pick and possibly save Ron Rivera's job. IF YOU'VE GOT ANY SENSE IN THAT BRAIN OF YOURS, CAM, YOU'LL COME DOWN WITH A "MYSTERIOUS" ILLNESS NOW AND SIT OUT THE REST OF THE SEASON. I promise that you'll enjoy having Jarvis Jones on your team.

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (+7.5)

Lucas: Rams. I know, I know. Maybe it's too soon to predict another letdown game for the Niners. But if the Rams could tie them at Candlestick, what's to say they can't win at home? 

Nathaniel: Rams. You don't need to explain the merits of this fantastic 49ers squad to me, but didn't these teams just play to a tie in San Francisco three weeks ago? AND WHAT A MEMORABLE TIE THAT WAS. Hopefully NFL Network comes out at some point with a series on the best tie games of all time so that we can FINALLY properly relive these classic struggles. Who can forget the Eagles-Bengals tie from 2008 in which Donovan McNabb learned that, yes, you can in fact tie? Or Gus Frerotte's head-butt of the wall in the Giants-Redskins tie of 1997? THE PEOPLE DEMAND THE GREATEST TIES OF ALL TIME SERIES AND THEY DEMAND IT NOW.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+7.5)

Lucas: Patriots. This is the time of the year when Belichek and Brady go into high-flying mode. Granted, Ryan Tannehill in all likelihood won't butt-fumble, but we can always hope, right? 

Nathaniel: Dolphins. Fairly certain Ryan Tannehill can avoid fumbling the ball into his offensive lineman's buttocks. And as the Jets showed us last week, that's half the battle right there! Also, I like this pick better if the Dolphins leave the Sun Life Stadium sprinkler heads out when the Patriots have the ball.

Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets (-4.5)

Lucas: Cardinals. I was originally wondering why the Jets were favored in this game before realizing Arizona's quarterbacks kind of suck. But then again, Rex Ryan's general gave us this gem.

Nathaniel: Cardinals. Things are so bad for Gang Green that not even Fireman Ed can watch. What will the football world do without a childish, drunken middle-aged man standing on another childish, drunken middle-aged man's shoulders and teaching the rest of the crowd how to spell a four-letter word? R.I.P Fireman Ed. You will be missed.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos (-6.5)

Lucas: Buccaneers. Should be a fun battle of high-powered offenses. Nathaniel, can we blame Britton Colquitt for last week's late cover instead of Matt Prater?

Nathaniel: Broncos. But only if Matt Prater doesn't miss two field goals again. I reserve the right to change my pick if that happens!
Lucas Note: Good luck running that by the Disney corporation, since they run our picking service.

Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (-0.5)

Lucas: Browns. Am I seriously starting to believe in Brandon Weeden? The constifusionscended guy?

Nathaniel: Raiders. Honestly just tossing blindly at a dartboard here. The real winner of this game will be America - minus the greater Cleveland and Bay Area metropolitan areas. They'll be treated to Steelers-Ravens, a game that might just look a little like a thing we call football.

Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers (+1.5)

Lucas: Bengals.I'm impressed Norv has lasted this long. Cincy seems like they're bound for at least a wild card spot. 

Nathaniel: Bengals. The battle of the Blackout Kings. Since Cincinnati fans don't even travel to Paul Brown Stadium to watch their team, there's zero chance they'll fly out to San Diego to do so. You might see a bigger crowd at your local house of worship Sunday than at Qualcomm Stadium.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

Lucas: Ravens. When you consider how bad the Steelers are without Big Ben, especially against Baltimore... combined with the fact that Baltimore is at home... come on. I don't recall feeling any ominous powers from driving by M&T Bank Stadium a couple times when I was in Baltimore, but you can't deny there's something there.

Nathaniel: Steelers. Under the assumption that Roethlisberger plays. But even if he doesn't, it won't be that bad, right? These games always seem to be 13-10 slugfests and I don't trust Joe Flacco to throw against the Steelers defense even when he's at home and Mike Tomlin's a very capable coach and OH MY WORD CHARLIE BATCH IS WARMING UP GAHHHHHHHHH KILL IT WITH FIRE.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)

Lucas: Eagles. I'm probably losing my mind at this point in time, but 9 1/2 points is a lot to be giving a team that has issues even if it's against a team that has bigger issues. Or maybe I'm fixated by the possibility of my postseason scenario above.

Nathaniel: Eagles. I should know better than to complain about point spreads this late in the season, but how in the world does a team with a losing record end up being favored by 9.5 over anybody other than the Chiefs? Not even Andy Reid can screw this up. Actually on second thought, forget that I said that.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+2.5)

Lucas: Redskins. Suddenly the Giants are looking pretty good after that drubbing they gave Green Bay (I was embarrassed). They seem like world beaters again going into Washington. I'm no expert on Giants football, but this is probably a letdown game again. Maybe I was a week early.

Nathaniel: Redskins. So...this RGIII fellow...

Records so far

Lucas: 92-84 (7-9 last week)

Nathaniel: 85-91 (8-8 last week)

College Football Non-Conference Power Rankings: Week 14

COAS is back after a holiday break. Hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving wherever you spent it. In my case, a trip to the frigid north was in order, but I enjoyed time with family up in North Dakota (and I did get to see sizable chunks of all 3 Thanksgiving NFL games but not much else) and getting to show my fiancee around my parents' hometown.

But while I was adventuring through the frozen tundra and enjoying adventures with her and a certain adorable alpaca, college football went on. While at the D-III level my North Central Cardinals saw their season come to a close (the lesson: you usually don't win turning it over 7 times), the D-I level brought continued excitement and sealed a couple of undefeated seasons. But there are still some games left on the docket this week and with the exception of a makeup game from the opening week all are in conference, so here's one final look at how each conference scheduled their seasons out. I will also include any major games being played that have playoff implications.

1. WAC (7.57)- No change.
2. Sun Belt (7.2)- South Alabama visits Hawaii.
3. Conference-USA (6.75)- No change. UCF visits Tulsa for the C-USA Championship Game.
4. MAC (6.62)- No change. NIU plays Kent State for the MAC Championship Game.
5. Big East (6.5)- No change. Louisville visits Rutgers for a de facto Big East Championship Game. (A Rutgers win guarantees the Knights the conference title and a playoff berth. A Louisville win forces a 3-way tie with Rutgers and Syracuse, which I believe would be settled by the BCS standings.)
6. Mountain West (5.6)- Hawaii hosts South Alabama. Boise State visits Nevada for a possible MWC title game. (A Nevada win guarantees Fresno State the conference title and a playoff berth. A Boise State win forces a 3-way tie with Fresno State and San Diego State. The exact tiebreaker for this scenario is unknown.)
7. ACC (4.67)- No change. Florida State plays Georgia Tech for the ACC Championship Game.
8. Big Ten (4.58)- No change. Nebraska plays Wisconsin for the Big Ten Championship Game.
9. SEC (3.64)- No change. Alabama plays Georgia for the SEC Championship Game.
10. Pac-12 (3.17)- Oregon State hosts an FCS team (game scheduled for the opening week made up this weekend). UCLA visits Stanford for the Pac-12 Championship Game.
11. Big XII (2.6)- No change. Texas visits Kansas State and Oklahoma visits TCU. (A Kansas State win or Oklahoma loss gives Kansas State the Big XII Championship. A Kansas State loss AND Oklahoma win gives Oklahoma the Big XII Championship.)

These conference title games will shore up all the uncertainties that have been in play for the last several weeks. I've had several weeks where teams have been in and out just due to ties and varying ways of how to break them, or teams in the lead losing to let other teams in. This week will put all that to bed and the 16 team field that will battle it out online (since they won't match up on the field due to greed and stupidity) will come to completion.  But if the season ended today, with conference records currently deciding champions even in conferences where title games are played, here's how the 11-champion, 5-at large team field would be filled. Last week's rankings can be found here.

College Football Non-Conference Power Rankings: Week 13

This should be one of the final weeks of writing up about the rankings for these teams, as for most the regular season ends this weekend. There are still conference title games to be played that settle bowl game matchups, but more importantly and more fairly, it helps decide who will be involved in the Death to the BCS Playoffs. The whole thing is becoming a mess now. I see why fans of the BCS or even college football in general love this regular season over everyone else's, but with the headache at the top it's not entirely fair to just pick 2 teams to go at it. And what happens if Notre Dame loses this coming weekend? How do you pick a pair of 1-loss teams out of a crowd, many of whom haven't faced each other, and dare to call it a national championship game?

So before we go into one final look at the playoffs before the conference title games when I have to set everything in stone, here's where all of the conferences stand in terms of how they scheduled as we conclude the regular season.

1. WAC (7.57)- New Mexico State hosts BYU. (Note: this score is somewhat inflated since it's a 7-team conference and they play 6 games out of conference, so this is one conference that weakens my formula)
2. Sun Belt (7)- No change.
3. Conference-USA (6.75)- No change.
4. MAC (6.62)- No change.
5. Big East (6.5)- No change.
6. Mountain West (5.5)- No change.
7. ACC (4.67)- Georgia Tech visits Georgia, Wake Forest hosts Vanderbilt, Florida State hosts Florida, Clemson hosts South Carolina.
8. Big Ten (4.58)- No change.
9. SEC (3.64)- Georgia hosts Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt visits Wake Forest, Florida visits Florida State, South Carolina visits Clemson.
10. Pac-12 (3.25)- USC hosts Notre Dame.
11. Big XII (2.6)- No change.

The SEC increases their score and goes up a bit with those 4 ACC contests. Really, some of these conferences should do more play between each other, especially where natural rivalries could come into play. Meanwhile, in the chaos from this weekend, there might be some changes to conference "champions" (determined right now by who has the best in-conference record for each conference) so teams that have been in and out might keep bouncing around. Conference title games will solve those issues in bigger conferences and can help decide who deserves the 5 at-large berths up for grabs. Last week's rankings can be found here.

Game Notes: Alma College @ North Central College (11/17/12)

Final Score
NCC 70, Alma 67

Game Summary
In a pretty entertaining game, the Cardinals (1-1) got off to a good start with a 7-0 run, though the Scots (0-2) would stick around. The Cards led by anywhere from 4 to 10 points for most of the first half before catching fire at the end of the half to take a 40-26 lead to the locker room. They led by 19 just a few minutes into the second half at 49-30 before Alma started making a comeback with defense and rebounding. The Cardinals would maintain a double digit lead until the final 4 and a half minutes when Alma picked up the pace. But the Cardinals hit some key free throws at the end to escape with a narrow win.

Key Stats

• Alma College: Outrebounded NCC 81-48. I thought last year this Cardinal team's strength was rebounding combined with defense. But... good Lord. This includes a jaw-dropping 37 offensive boards by the Scots. The Cardinals had 22 of their own, but still! I looked at second chance points for this game, and it was closer than you'd think (22-15 Alma). NCC is incredibly lucky to have won this game last night.
• Mary Schlicher (ALMA): 10-14 FG, 20 pts, 14 reb, (10 ofr). I would have put Danielle Hicks here, but the Demon Rim just killed her last night (0-11, 0 pts, but 17 boards, only 4 offensive). Schlicher really took advantage of the system NCC had in place and got a ton of easy layups.
• Sophie Newson (NCC): 1-6 FG (0-3 3pt), 2-5 FT, 4 pts, 11 reb (5 ofr). Sophie didn't have much of an impact offensively, but impressed me with her defense last night. She took a charge early on, and was excellent in helping down low. The Cardinals will need that as the season goes on.

North Central System Watch
I'm changing this from last year's Turnover Watch, though that is still a bit of a problem with 22 giveaways last night, but through 2 games I'm still watching this new system installed by Coach Roof (and I think assistant Doug Porter might have had a hand in it).

• 40? "line changes": I don't know the exact number even from looking at the box score, but this is the staple of Coach Roof's new system. With pressing everywhere, she subs everyone out all at once. The first new group checked in at the table 50 seconds in and that was the pattern for the night. The number here might be inflated, but it was a lot either way.
• 7-48 3pt (14.6%): Holy 2005 Illinois team, Batman. Coach Roof told me when I talked to her before the season she wanted this team taking 45 threes a game. Well, through 2 games... the Cardinals have shot 89 threes, so she was only off by 1. The problem is, this team is only shooting 21% from out there. I know they can shoot; I rebounded for Jenny Swanson during shootarounds the past couple days and she was hitting pretty much everything she shot (including me picking up a couple assists passing backwards to her over my head). It just hasn't translated to the floor yet.
• Alma: 38 turnovers. That is what NCC is looking for with this. They scored 29 points off of those turnovers as well, so that part of the system is working.

Final Thoughts
I still think this system needs some tweaking. Obviously it is causing turnovers and this team can run really well. I still think there is too much of an over-reliance on the 3 (even though I love announcing it) and not enough attacking the basket. I also fear that the trap is overused; while it is obviously forcing plenty of turnovers, it's also giving opponents a lot of easy layups in transition. The Cardinals got away with it last night; hopefully Coach Roof can make the adjustments needed to keep this team going. It's early enough in the season that this team can still improve.

Bonus Thought
Yesterday was a REALLY good day to be a Cardinal. Not only did this women's game result in a win, the men's team knocked off #7 Hope 60-49 to likely get a rankings boost, the football team went out to California and picked up a win while Nick Kukuc was getting compared to NFL backs as well as "a Himalayan cat running through the snow" (apparently), and the men's cross country team won its 15th national title and gave the school an even 30 in its history. Congratulations everyone! I'm proud to be a Cardinal for life!

Game Notes: Olivet College @ North Central College (11/16/12)

Final Score
Olivet 96, NCC 84

Game Summary
In what really was a pretty entertaining season opener, the Cardinals (0-1) got off to a pretty good start in a see-saw battle with the Comets (1-0), where the Cardinals eventually took a 38-37 lead. It was tied at 39 in the 1st half when the Comets went on a 13-0 run to take a commanding lead and never looked back. The Cardinals fell further behind in the 2nd half thanks to a Comet 12-0 run to start the half before making the game look closer than it was in garbage time.

Key Stats

• Olivet Bigs: 24-38, 58 pts, 25 reb: Sydney Radde, Stefanie Lang and Kaleigh Hill looked all but unstoppable last night as the Comets broke the press NCC was testing out constantly and the Cardinals unfortunately had no answer for them. With about 5 minutes left the Cardinals fell back into a 2-3 zone which stifled any further outbursts, but they left their mark... and then some.
• NCC Shooting: 26-75 (12-41 3pt), 20-39 FT: This was the new offense on display. Coach Roof told me a couple weeks ago she wanted the team to shoot about 45 threes a game and they came pretty close, those shots other than early in the game just weren't falling. Those free throw numbers scare me though. Lauren Hernandez in particular (6-13) struggled a bit last night, but missing 19 free throws as a team in a 12 point loss... you do the math.
• Kim Wilson (NCC): 5-9 FG (4-8 3pt), 6-6 FT, 20 pt, 4 ast: When I was looking at the roster before the season, Kim caught my eye as a 5'9" guard and hoped that she would have a good blend of skills. Turns out she can shoot pretty well. That was a bright spot along with Emily Murphy (13 points on 6-10 shooting).

Final Thoughts
Without totally overreacting to just one game, I think the Cardinals weren't too bad in their opener given that they were probably working out some kinks in the system. For a while the press was working and there seemed to be fresh bodies always out there. This team can run and gun a little bit, but there will be struggles when shots aren't falling (live by the 3, die by the 3) or when facing an opponent with some talented bigs who can run a little bit like Olivet has. I think Coach Roof can make the adjustments needed as the early part of the season goes on.


Bonus Thought
A big credit to the College of Faith, which just opened its doors this year. They started programs for football and men's basketball in their opening year just to get started, and for their first ever game made the trek up from Tennessee (or Arkansas, I'm not positive) to Naperville and apparently didn't get much, if any sleep before taking on #7 Hope in their first game. Posted to the left is the final score from that game, because people might think there was a typo if I just put the score in. Hope got a dunk off the opening tip and that just seemed to be the way things went yesterday. Credit to COF though for not giving up, making the trek, and being willing to play for 40 minutes against extremely tough odds. Good luck to them today against Illinois Institute of Technology.

COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 11

We're down to the last week of byes finally, and I may do a playoff picture general post following next week's NFL games with thoughts on the playoffs and possibly awards and such. No reason to let Nathaniel have all the fun.

Speaking of Nathaniel, we're both on a bit of a roll, having been even over the last 2 weeks and both going 18-10 during that span. Nathaniel also reclaimed his spot in 2nd in Week 9 and padded his distance last week as well. Even looking at the standings though, we're all doing pretty well with out picks, beating more than half the ESPN field. How many of those are people who aren't filling out picks, I'm not sure. Let us have our glory, dang it!

Either way, here's what we're picking for Week 11.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)
Lucas: Bills. I don't know what to make of this game, other than this is why the NFL shouldn't do so many Thursday night games. Buffalo came up just short against New England, with poor playcalling at the end, but Miami just got killed by Tennessee, who a week before was annihilated by the Bears' defense. I'd say this game would end in a tie, but San Francisco/St. Louis just ended in one and everyone would probably still be confused as to how a game ends in a tie so I don't see another one happening. A man can dream though. Also, Miami is due some bad sports karma.
Nathaniel: Bills. You know, the Bills still have five home games left and they've gotten the Patriots, 49ers, and Texans out of the way. May there still be a chance we see them in the playoffs? ...(thinking)...No, that's completely insane. They'll probably win this game, though.

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-9.5)
Lucas: Falcons. The Saints provided the blueprint for beating Atlanta in that their run defense is somewhat suspect. Arizona's starting running back is LaRod Stevens-Howling. Have fun.
Nathaniel: Cardinals. Arizona will lead by five with three seconds left, but then the Falcons will perfectly recreate the Cal-Stanford Band play and return the ensuing kickoff for a touchdown thanks to seventeen laterals and an illegal block from Tony Siragusa, who comes out from his sideline man cave to join the action one last time. I'm telling you, the Falcons can't lose at home.

Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. Look at Brandon Weeden, now to me. Now back to Brandon Weeden, now back to me. I am not Brandon Weeden. I at least know not to get hit by an American flag or throw on the same play as a pass was batted down. I just threw a back shoulder touchdown to Nathaniel. Brandon Weeden can't do that.
Nathaniel: Cowboys. Only if Morris Claiborne commits less than seven penalties, though. This will be a harder feat for Morris than you realize.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+3.5)
Lucas: Packers. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned about Green Bay's massive injury bug, but Detroit's defense is terrible and Aaron Rodgers is indoors. And Ndamukong Suh hasn't been suspended yet. It's against the Pack. He's due.
Nathaniel: Lions. If the Lions don't win this one, their battleship is COMPLETELY SUNK. Metaphorically, of course; as far as we know, the NFL doesn't rely on any actual use of the game Battleship to decide game outcomes. Although if they did, I think we can all agree the Eagles would lose every game. NEVER CLUSTER ALL YOUR SHIPS IN THE SAME AREA, ANDY!

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Was that really Romeo Crennel on the sidelines on Monday? His team actually looked halfway decent. Granted it was against a Steelers team that was without Big Ben for half the game. The way Cincy looked against the G-men? I'll take it.
Nathaniel: Bengals. I'm sorry, it's going to take more than one week of Kansas City looking like an actual NFL franchise before I'm convinced to take the points with them. And to follow up on my answer to the previous game, the Chiefs would be equally, if not moreso, boned than the Eagles if winning at Battleship were the criteria for success. I would give almost anything to watch Romeo Crennel and Andy Reid play against each other. It would be utterly mind-blowing.

New York Jets at St. Louis Rams (-3.5)
Lucas: Rams. Jeff Fisher's team played a very tough San Fran team to a tie, though they should have won that game in overtime twice. Then again, it's the Jets this week. There are few teams I'd pick Rex Ryan against. The Rams are not one of them.
Nathaniel: Rams. I actually think Rex Ryan is a pretty good coach, but don't you kinda have to fire the guy after basically half his players gave disparaging quotes anonymously about Tebow? Doesn't matter that they're right. IT'S THE PRINCIPLE OF THE MATTER.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (-3.5)
Lucas: Redskins. I should have known Vick would go down with an injury before getting benched. Even if he is healthy Sunday, I don't see the Eagles doing anything about it. Too much ineptitude.

Nathaniel: Redskins. At some point this season, Michael Vick will walk into Andy Reid's office and say, "Great news, coach, the doctors cleared me to play and my concussion symptoms are all gone. When do you want me to start back up-" Then. Out of nowhere. With surpising speed. A large hand will cover Michael's mouth with duct tape and Michael will be tied up and thrown into a storage closet as a large man with a walrus moustache cocks his ear and says, "What's that? You've still got a terrible headache from that hit you took? Oh well. Guess we'll have to go with Nick again..." and then walk off with an empty expression on his face. All of this will most certainly occur. You watch.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (+1.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. I know it's largely been Doug Martin, but you have to give some credit to JAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAASH FREEMAN! (copyright: Bill Simmons)
Nathaniel: Panthers. Remember how bad the Buccaneers' offense looked early in the season? They could barely get a first down against the Cowboys. Now they're rolling up and down in the field in a glorious fashion and making Greg Schiano chortle with glee. Naturally, I must take the Panthers.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-15.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. I knew the line would be big, but this big? I've gotten burned by quite a few big lines this year. Not chancing this one. And if Arian Foster turns into Tecmo Bo to beat the spread, so be it.
Nathaniel: Jaguars. Look, I know this is going to blow up in my face, but...15.5 POINTS!!! That's enormous! That's a bigger spread than the Thanksgiving feast that gets served at Dan Jiggetts' house every year. I...I just can't do it.

New Orleans Saints at Oakland Raiders (+4.5)
Lucas: Saints. Let's see: two good passing games with Drew Brees and a surprisingly gaudy Carson Palmer against two BAD pass defenses? And the over/under is only 54.5? Palmer will likely make more mistakes than Brees and swing the game, but still.
Nathaniel: Raiders. Probably the closest thing we will ever see to two offenses just playing against air. First one to force a third down wins.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-7.5)
Lucas: Broncos. I think last week's press conference was the closest Norv Turner got to turning into the Incredible Hulk, though he was still far off. Peyton throwing for 4 touchdowns in the 4th quarter to come from behind? That might do it.

Nathaniel: Broncos. I love the Broncos in this game. However, I will have to turn the channel any time they punt and Britton Colquitt comes on the field. IT'S TOO SOON! IT'S JUST TOO SOON!

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-9.5)
Lucas: Colts. While yes, Andrew Luck doesn't have the same prowess on the road as he does at home (or in Jacksonville), with the Pats defense, there's no way they don't give up their fair share of points. They'll still score plenty, but 10 points is a lot to shoot for. Then again, maybe I'm still all in on #Chuckstrong. Speaking of which...
Nathaniel: Patriots. If there's any coach in the league who will be wholly unsympathetic to the message of #Chuckstrong, it will be Bill Belichick. "It's very sad that Chuck is sick and we're hoping and praying that he gets better as soon as possible. Now let's run the no-huddle and beat the Colts by 50."

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Lucas: Ravens. Big Ben's shoulder is a hefty price to pay for those bee jerseys Nathaniel and I both decried a couple weeks ago. Time to resurrect the Ravens/Bane parallel.

Nathaniel: Ravens. Byron Leftwich may not be much of a quarterback, but he's got a heck of a last name! I've always thought after he ends his career, he should create a copycat sloppy joe recipe that apes Manwich and start up Leftwich Sloppy Joe Sauce: An American Tradition Since 2013! (I'm assuming that's the year he retires.)

Chicago Bears at San Franciso 49ers (-4.5)
Lucas: Bears. Alex Smith is likely to play on Monday, but what about Cutler? These teams are about as even as it gets, especially between Alex Smith and Jason Campbell, but I take the Bears defense over just about anyone.
Nathaniel: 49ers. Honestly, it might be for the best if Jay Cutler doesn't play. I still have nightmares from the last time he played at Candlestick. NO, JAY! JUST BECAUSE DESMOND CLARK IS IN THE END ZONE DOES NOT MEAN YOU SHOULD THROW IT TO THE FOUR 49ERS WHO ARE STANDING IN FRONT OF HIM!

Should be a fun week of games once again. I worry about Nathaniel and I after we played a tough round of football today, especially given this note he gave me with his picks.

I fear I may not be able to move at all tomorrow. They'll have to wheel me into work in a wheelbarrow and then prop me up at my computer Stephen Hawking-style. How do actual football players do it?!

Records so far
Lucas: 77-69, 10-4 last week
Nathaniel: 69-77, 9-5 last week

North Central Basketball Preview

Ah, it's good to have that logo back in COAS. We're into November, the NBA is underway, and I'm gearing up for another season of Cardinal basketball. This will be my 6th season participating in some capacity with the program, since I called my first ever game in February of 2008 with Nick Shepkowski, now with 670 The Score in Chicago, and my second year as the full time public address announcer for the North Central women's basketball team.

Women's Basketball
Last Year: 7-18 (1-13 CCIW, 8th) (Stats)

As you can tell from just the record above, last year was not a good year for the Lady Cardinals. If you read any of last season's game recaps, the consistent problem was that despite pretty good defense and rebounding, the offense consistently struggled due to a lot of turnovers, missed layups, and the like. But to be fair, last year was something of a rebuilding year with Jackie Errico, one of the best players in NCC's history lost to graduation (though she's back again for her second year as a grad assistant coach) and a large group of incoming freshmen that had to contribute right away. Really, there was a lot of potential from this group going forward, and they ended last year on a high note with a win on Senior Night.

This year that group of freshmen returns intact with a year of facing the CCIW Gauntlet under their belts. The keys obviously are the senior leaders in three point specialist Jenny Swanson, strong defender and slasher Sophie Newson and low post presence Emily Murphy, three pillars from last year's squad. Bobbi Johns will probably take over the point guard role, and there's a plethora of perimeter sophomores she'll have the oppotunity to pass to including Callie Rezin, Kelsey Cooling, and Lauren Hernandez.

I stopped by Merner Fieldhouse on Halloween to say hello to head coach Michelle Roof, and we both share an optimism about this season with so many key players returning, many of them young. Hopefully the new class can come in and contribute, and I'm sure they will. Coach Roof told me there will probably be a pretty deep rotation of players and ball movement around the perimeter. A lot of these girls can shoot from deep, so I'm already preparing my voice for a lot of work. Someone get me a giant pack of Gatorade. and if late on a Wednesday night you here a loud yell of "THREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!", don't worry; I'm just trying to swing momentum to get the crowd involved and help this team get back to the CCIW Tournament for the first time since 2009. The coaches' poll has them slotted 6th out of 8, with defending national champion Illinois Wesleyan at the top.

It's hard to go down from where they were last season, but with the talent and experience on this squad, they'll be a pretty good team this year. Hopefully I can see the pleasant surprise of a tournament berth.

Lucas' Prediction: 11-14, 5th in CCIW