2015 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 14

I think I'm gonna wave the white flag now.

Adam has increased his lead overall in our group, going 4-1 on hero picks and taking seven of our ten disputed games last week to open up a 14 game lead with four weeks to go. I'm out of it at this point, I've accepted it. So congratulations to Adam for leading wire to wire this season and at least defeating me, with a good shot of winning the group outright.

I'm playing out the string here, but I enjoy picking these games still even though I've had an awful year. This week, Adam and I disagree on only four games out of the 16 to be played. He was busy with work this week so he had to do quick picks for this edition. Without further ado, here we go.

Game Notes: University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point @ North Central College (12/9/15)

Final Score
NCC 63, Wisconsin-Stevens Point 49

Game Summary
It was a defensive battle early, but the Cardinals (3-3) took control early with a couple of baskets while locking down the other end. The Pointers (3-3) hung around though by playing solid defense as well, while the Cardinals missed some free throws to keep it close. Stevens Point finally hit a couple threes late in the half to make it close again, but some late free throws and a couple Cardinal buckets pushed the lead back to eight, going into halftime up 26-18. North Central forced turnovers on the first three possessions of the second half and tried to pull away, though the Pointers hung tough and kept it close for a while. A couple Cardinal threes expanded the lead, and they finished it off by going to the basket.

Key Stats

• UWSP: 16-58 FG (27.6%). When I talk about how dominant a defensive performance this was... This is your proof. North Central just held the defending national champions to under 30 percent shooting. The Pointers also hit just 32.4 percent of their two point shots. Incredible.
• Alex Sorenson (NCC): 7-9 FG (1-2 3PT), 5-13 FT; 20 pts, 12 reb (3 off), 1 ast, 2 blk. Alex struggled a bit offensively early (at the line especially), but controlled the game for the first ten minutes or so by locking down the defensive side. He heated up in the second half while continuing to control the glass. He also got his rhythm down at the line in the second half, hitting five of eight freebies.
• Erwin Henry (NCC): 5-9 FG (0-3 3PT), 8-8 FT; 18 pts, 10 reb (1 off), 2 ast, 1 stl. Erwin did pretty well in the first half (eight points, six boards) but really took over as the second half continued. He managed a pair of key and-ones to prevent the Pointers from mounting more of a comeback. For his first start of the year, this was a great game.

Final Thoughts
The defending national champs had to reload a little bit, and they have the size, but they had no answer for a tough Cardinal defense. If you didn't know much about either team coming in, you'd think the Cardinals were the defending national champs the way they played. They were ready for this one, and showed it from the get go.

This was a huge win for the program and could be critical later in the season, but the important thing for now is that the Cardinals don't get too high after this win. They blew a 16 point lead at Aurora a couple weeks ago, and had multiple chances to beat Alma on Sunday but couldn't get over the top despite holding them without a basket for the final 4:27 of the game. Consistency is key, and we'll see how they handle it. The boys get a few days to rest up and prepare for Albion this coming Tuesday.

Game Notes: Carroll University @ North Central College (12/8/15)

Final Score
NCC 109, Carroll 81

Game Summary
After a ten day layoff, the Cardinals (3-3) went unorthodox on offense, driving the lane and getting layups to take the early lead. The Pioneers (3-5) hung tough early and only trailed 21-15 after the first quarter. North Central went cold for much of the early second quarter and Carroll took advantage, eventually taking a 30-29 lead midway through the frame. The Cardinals didn't give up, continuing to attack the basket and retook control, but only led 42-39 going into the break. The Cardinals made adjustments in the second half though while also starting to hit their trees, building a 75-56 lead through three quarters and topping the century mark with under three minutes left in the game.

Key Stats

• NCC: 60 points in the paint. I was caught off guard by this strategy to start the game, but Coach Roof said afterward that Carroll was tightly guarding the perimeter and forcing the Cardinals to go inside. That seemed to suit North Central just fine; they looked quicker pretty much all game. They got a good post contribution while at the same time, they got great dribble penetration by the guards all game. It shows that this team isn't just a one trick pony.
• Therese Pettersson (NCC): 8-14 FG, 1-2 FT; 17 pts, 5 reb (3 off), 2 ast. I was worried coming into the season that we wouldn't have a go to person down low. T might have taken the torch left by Tess Godhardt officially last night, as she looked fantastic on the blocks. I'm excited for her future with this team.
• Malory Christenson (CRRLL): 12-22 FG, 6-8 FT; 30 pts, 14 reb (6 off), 4 ast, 1 blk. The forwards always seem to be the beneficiaries for opponents against this system, as Christenson took advantage of multiple layup opportunities and also hit some jumpers while having a great night on the glass.

North Central System Watch

• Carroll Turnovers: 30. Another day at the office, this total really picked up as the game went along and Carroll started to tire. The Cardinals picked up 18 steals on the night, paced by Paula Zerante's five. North Central also forced a ten second call as well as one backcourt violation.
• NCC 3PT: 11-38 (28.9%). The season average goes up a tad, though it took a while. The Cardinals hit just two of their 17 threes in the first half, some way off. They then got hot in the second half going 9-21, which was a big factor in their pulling away for the win.
• NCC Charges Drawn: 1. Anita Sterling picked up her third charge at home, though I'm not sure what happened out in Colorado. Either way I'm pretty sure she's in the lead on the team by a lot.

Final Thoughts
I need to get used to this matchup; this is the conclusion of a home-and-home series, but the Pioneers are joining the CCIW next season, so we'll be seeing them every year from here on out.

It's fun to watch for the expressions of opponents whenever they play the Cardinals. You could tell in the fourth quarter that Carroll was done. They looked absolutely gassed and maybe a tad frustrated, but they showed heart to the end. I have to tip my cap.

The Cardinals are on the road this weekend to complete a home-and -home from last year with Wisconsin-Eau Claire (that game was fun), but will be back home next Thursday in the Battle of Chicago Avenue against Benedictine. I'll have another Game Notes tomorrow though, as the North Central men complete a home-and-home from last year and take on defending national champion Wisconsin-Stevens Point.

2015 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Official Bracket

With the exception of the Army-Navy game, the 2015 regular season is in the books. Now, it's for all the marbles.

This weekend, two conferences concluded their regular seasons while the other eight played their conference championship games. The former all had their automatic bids claimed; the latter needed to make it official. Now that they are, it's time to go to the Playoff Laboratory one final time... only this time, I'm doing this for real.

Those ten aforementioned conference champions all received an automatic berth to the 16 team field, while the remaining six spots were awarded at large to deserving teams who couldn't claim their conference crown. So how were those six decided, and how did I work out where everyone should be seeded? That latter question is just as important as the former; higher seeds get home field advantage for the first three rounds.

As for the selection criteria, I am a one-man selection committee who builds a bracket with the help of some metrics. I will use my own Non-Conference Schedule Strength and Playoff Points metrics to get started, and then I follow up with a pair of computer rankings that incorporate margin of victory (because that matters). These rankings are compiled by Jeff Sagarin and by a UCLA faculty member who uses the publicly available formula created by the late David Rothman. I try to combine these factors together to not be biased towards my own metrics while also looking at standings to come up with a playoff field.

Seeding is a little trickier. I'm using the same criteria to assign seedings, but I also want to keep a couple other factors in mind. I want to minimize travel to the best of my ability. Some of that will be unavoidable and TV revenues would make up for travel costs, but at the same time the travel costs would be significantly less than they would for a bowl game. This matters. The other, more important factor is one that I've kept in mind over the years: I want to try to avoid rematches as much as possible. This is vital in the first round, and it goes down in importance as the tournament progresses, but it remains in the back of my head.

So, fourteen weeks of football have all led up to this. Here is the official bracket for the 2015 Death to the BCS Playoffs.

2015 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 14

For the most part, this week's post of this nature is just formality. But it is important for the purposes of building the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

Last week, an overwhelming majority of the nation played its 12th and final game of the season, largely locking up most teams' Playoff Points scenarios. However, the Big 12 and Sun Belt do not have conference championship games because they aren't big enough, and thus had to finish out their regular seasons yesterday.

If you need a refresher on how Playoff Points work, you can refer back to my Week 1 post. Now, in the interests of full disclosure because it's important: the conference championship games do not count towards Playoff Points, either in team win totals or going towards First or Second Degree Playoff Points. I do this because it's not fair to the Big 12 or the Sun Belt to reward the other conferences for bring bigger. We may see some changes in other conferences though based on non-conference games involving those two conferences. Let's take a look at the final rankings of the year.

2015 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 13

We have five weeks left in the NFL season, and I'm working on my concession speech.

Adam took four out of our six disputed games last week, and now has a ten game lead with 80 more games to pick. The way things have gone, even though I did okay this week, I don't have much faith in leading a comeback. Weird things happen though, so I'm going to keep at it. Plus, this series of posts is fun to do, and I enjoy having Adam along for the ride.

Adam remains in first place in our little group, though my dad has surged in recent weeks to be in the conversation, and Geoffrey is in striking distance as well. I guess I am too, but the gap is probably too much to overcome.

If I'm going to make a miraculous comeback, the best opportunity is now. This week, Adam and I disagree on a whopping ten games out of 16. Let's get to the picks.

2015 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 14/15

For the final time this season, it's time to take a look at the upcoming schedule.

Last week pretty much finalized the rankings, with one exception that I'm going to do a week ahead of time, hence the post title where I'm combining the two weeks. I won't do the same for Playoff Points, however, because Navy is out of the mix at this point. I'll end up updating the spreadsheet regardless, but it won't impact the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

What will, however, are a chunk of the games this week. We have multiple conference championship games, while two conferences close out their regular season schedules. I'll touch on all of these after the jump.