Game Notes: Elmhurst College @ North Central College (1/18/14)

Final Score
NCC 111, Elmhurst 92

Game Summary
In a pretty tight contest throughout, the Blue Jays (10-6, 2-3) got out to an early lead. It didn't last long as the Cardinals (9-7, 2-3) started to find their range and caught fire to storm ahead. They stayed ahead by at least a couple possessions for most of the rest of the half until Elmhurst tied it at 31 with five minutes left in the half. Again, the Cardinals pulled ahead by a sizable margin, and despite a weak final 30 seconds or so, led 49-43 at the intermission. The flow and feel of the game completely changed early in the second half, as the refs who let a lot go early started blowing the whistle a lot more and got the Cardinals into the penalty just five minutes in. That kept the Blue Jays in the game and even gave them a two-point lead at 81-79 with 6:51 left. The Cardinals took the lead back, and held a narrow 83-82 margin with 5:52 left. From there, a barrage of threes, charges, and free throws enabled North Central to pull away.

Key Stats

• Bobbi Johns (NCC): 5-10 FG (1-5 3PT), 5-5 FT; 16 pts, 3 reb (3 ofr), 6 ast, 5 stl. I could have picked from a number of Cardinal players tonight, but to me Bobbi played one of the best all-around games out of everyone. Her deep shooting left something to be desired, but she found driving lanes a few times for easy layups, found open teammates, and did her usual thing in being a master thief. At her current pace, she should join the Top 10 in program history in steals, and could threaten to join the Top 10 for a single season as well.
• NCC: 7 players with double digit points. This includes Bobbi (above). Kim Wilson struggled early, but found her shot as the game went on and finished with 15 points, all on threes. Larynn Shumaker struggled early as well, but finished with 14 points despite some foul trouble that included a technical for (justifiably) complaining about the officiating. Kelsey Cooling also had 14 points with some excellent sniping. Maryssa Cladis had 11, and Lauren Hernandez and Uzuri Williams each had 10.
• Melanie Schwerdtmann (ELM): 8-11 FG, 6-12 FT; 22 pts, 4 reb (2 ofr). I'd argue she had a better game than the 6'1" Fiona McMahon (16-15 on 8-15 shooting), but it was in the usual manner with a fair number of easy layups in breaking North Central's press. She struggled at the line though, which might have been a bit of a factor in Elmhurst fading late.

North Central System Watch

• NCC 3PT: 17-43 (39.5%). I think this is the best the Cardinals have shot in a game that I can remember, though you can click on the "North Central College" label at the end of the post to look through all my Game Notes files to find out. At one point, North Central was 7-15 as they were establishing control of the game. I told the official scorer that it was unsustainable, and I was right: the Cardinals finished the first half 10-29, which was still a respectable 34.5%. They then shot 7-14 after halftime, with most of those threes coming late in an effort to pull away. When you shoot that well from deep, you'll win a lot of games. It was good to see.
• ELM Turnovers: 30. North Central drew a charge in the opening couple minutes, and that one play altered much of the rest of the game, as the Blue Jays ended up pulling up a little more. They did get called for a few more over the course of the game, and threw a few usual errant passes. The Cardinals did notch 15 steals on the night though, including the team-leading five for Bobbi Johns. Maryssa Cladis had four and a handful of other players had one. It was something to watch.

CCIW Watch

• Carthage (14-2, 50) 73, @ Millikin (6-10, 0-5) 63
• @ Illinois Wesleyan (11-5, 5-0) 93, Wheaton (12-3, 3-2) 85
• North Park (9-7, 2-3) 53, @ Augustana (5-11, 1-4) 50

Final Thoughts
This was a really good, hard fought game, and one the Cardinals desperately needed. That three game road trip probably took a lot out of this team. After their narrow victory at Millikin on the 8th, they got blown out by Carthage and lost a game they should have won against Augustana. Tonight, I was worried for a time that they would lose. I was also a little worried that I'd come across as a total homer by blaming the officiating for some of Elmhurst getting to come back. There were some awful calls against the Cardinals, but I'm sure Elmhurst got shafted a couple times as well. Such is the nature of the game.

Ultimately though, getting some home cooking probably helped, and it didn't come down to who got calls at the end. This was probably the best game I've seen the team play maybe all season. Right now they're in that magical three-way tie for the fourth spot in the tournament, and I honestly have no idea how the tiebreaker works. It's not super important yet though, with more than half of conference play still left. The Cardinals are back home on Wednesday, and I'm not looking forward to the confrontation with Wesleyan, who went 6-5 outside of CCIW play, but all five of their losses came to really good and/or ranked teams. I'm hoping it won't be as ugly as I worry it will be. It's been a while since this Cardinal team has beaten the Titans (IWU has won 13 straight), but maybe fortunes can reverse. We'll find out.

NFL Conference Championship Preview

We're down to what a lot of people consider the best weekend of football in the entire season. Two games with the best four teams left, often teams that know each other really well, makes for great drama. The fact that we have four of the preseason favorites combined with great storylines in each game makes this weekend even better. On one side, a battle of up and coming teams with incredibly talented young dual-threat quarterbacks and relentless defenses. On the other side, a renewal of a rivalry between two of the best quarterbacks of all time. I am giddy.

Like last week and the week before, I'll predict a final score for each game in a vain hope of matching my once in a lifetime feat of nailing the final score exactly in Super Bowl XLVIII. This will serve as both a straight up pick and a pick against the spread. Spread information is pulled from Vegas Insider, but again, no money is being wagered. Let's get to it.

2013 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Championship

Out of principle, I didn't watch the BCS Championship Game on Monday night. It also didn't help that my TV is messed up and the quick glance I did of the game showed a Mutant Tre Mason.

What's clear to me is that simulations aren't a perfect solution to solving the whole "Best team in the nation" debate because the results of the Rose and Sugar Bowls, as well as Monday's title game have seen some contradictions in what has happened through three rounds of playoff games. Michigan State was a first round elimination here and Stanford is playing for the championship, despite MSU beating Stanford out in Pasadena on New Years Day. On the plus side, we got to see at least a simulation of what would happen if Alabama played FSU, and based on Bama's showing in the Sugar Bowl, I don't think the simulation was quite accurate. But considering the system that put FSU and Auburn up against each other is corrupt, I wanted to run a more equitable system.

So, a week after the college football season is over, I run one last set of simulations. Florida State ran through the highest seed combinations it could en route to Pasadena, and on the other side, Stanford took out an upstart Central Florida team, then blew out Auburn to steal their magic.

Given the magnitude of this game, I'm going to simulate it as a best-of-five, with the "clinching" game being the official one. Weather in Pasadena will be taken into account around the kickoff time mentioned. Simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get to one last hurrah.

NFL Division Round Preview

It's been a busy week for me in preparing for a lot of big changes, all the while struggling to survive the harsh Chicago winter. Yet still, even if it's at the last minute, I can get together a quick NFL preview for the upcoming weekend.

I actually had a chance this weekend to watch a couple of the playoff games pretty much in their entirety. While my office has been great this year in putting games up in our office area (mainly Bears games, alas), we still have to work, so I can't devote full attention over. Last Sunday I got to actually dedicate time to watch both games. Sadly, this meant I had to watch my Packers fall just short.

The games must go on, so now I go forth to pick how I think the divisional round will go. I'll pick a score, which will serve as both a straight up pick and one against the spread. Said spreads are pulled from Vegas Insider. Spread was taken at the time of posting, and no money is being wagered.

2013 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Semifinals

There are dangerous wind chills in Chicago today, but that doesn't stop the COAS train! Neither does a sad loss by my Green Bay Packers to the 49ers yesterday. Stupid trash talking by Bears fans after their team was eliminated from even making the tournament in heartbreaking fashion... nah, not quite enough.

I set the tournament up so that the semifinal games would take place on playoff Sunday, but after the two scheduled games. Had it unfolded in reality, it would have worked perfectly since Green Bay was knocked out just before scheduled kickoff time that I'd set up. I'd originally thought about kicking off at 6 before pushing it back an hour... it worked.

By and large so far, chalk has been rocked. And the incentive to do really well in the regular season has proved itself so far, as Florida State and Auburn get to host their third straight games. Can they set up what a corrupt system can? If so, I'll forgo the title game post next weekend and let tonight's game speak for the Death to the BCS Championship game. Ultimately, I just want the title to be fully decided on the field.

As in the first two rounds, higher seeds get home field advantage. I take the weather conditions around kickoff time from weather.com to be the conditions for the simulations. Said simulations are done in a best-of-three format, with the "clinching" game being considered the official result. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play some football.

Game Notes: North Park University @ North Central College (1/4/14)

Final Score
NPU 92, NCC 71

Game Summary
The Vikings (8-4, 1-0) seemed to have an early grip on the game, scoring early against the press, but the Cardinals (7-5, 0-1) stuck with them early. The game was tied at 10 about five and a half minutes in, but then North Park went on a run and in ten minutes had built an 18 point lead. The Cardinals closed the half on a little run of their own, narrowing the gap to eight at 42-34 going into the break. The two teams were about even for the first nine minutes of the half when the Cardinals' Sofia Svensson took a spill on a hard foul and she had to leave the game. After a quick warmup following a long delay, play resumed. The Cardinals pulled to within four at 67-63 with 8:42 to play. The Vikings then went on a 19-3 run in the next three and a half minutes to put the game out of reach.

Key Stats

• NPU: 5 players in double figures (2 with double-doubles). Brittany Pittas led the Vikings with 19 points on 9-16 shooting. Rachel Torres and Dominikque Williams had the double-doubles, with 14-11 and 12-12, respectively. Amani Davis had 13 points, including a 7-9 night at the line, and Nicole Kruckman, North Park's star center, had 10 points despite playing just 12 minutes due to foul trouble. Normally against the Cardinals one or two players have outstanding games. Rarely do we see such balance executed against this team.
• NCC: 20-74 FG (27.0%). To quote Gregg Easterbrook, "Ye gods." They shot 8-40 in the first half and didn't do much in the second half to improve that. A lot of credit has to go to North Park's stout defense, that didn't allow the Cardinals many easy looks at the basket. At the same time, a lot of the shots North Central put up were ugly, especially inside. A lot of that was due to good defense by the Vikings, but still.
• Larynn Shumaker (NCC): 7-10 FG, 10-12 FT; 24 pts, 6 reb (4 ofr), 1 stl. On a night when no one else really did anything, Larynn continues to shine down low. Whenever Nicole Kruckman was in the game, Larynn couldn't really get open, but otherwise when she had space she feasted on North Park's defense. Unfortunately, six turnovers for her combined with a lot of telegraphed passes or poor decision making prevented her from doing more damage.

North Central System Watch

• NCC 3PT: 6-29 (20.7%). Ick. Obviously a lot of the shots weren't there, since North Central likes to shoot around 45 a game. But when they did get shots, they didn't fall. The looks from deep largely weren't too terrible, but just didn't fall. Obviously though, when you shoot this bad from deep, you won't win many games.
• NPU Turnovers: 40. Truth be told, this number shocked me. I thought for sure the Cardinals would have more (they had 34). Officials called a fair number of traveling violations, but the Cardinals still managed 22 steals. Bobbi Johns led the way with five. Maryssa Cladis had four, while Marion Boeck and Uzuri Williams each had three.

CCIW Watch

I'm going to implement this part this season to keep an eye on the standings. For the most part, it will just be scores and records of the teams.

• Illinois Wesleyan (7-5, 1-0) 82, Elmhurst (8-4, 0-1) 55
• Carthage (10-2, 1-0) 88, Augustana (4-8, 0-1) 52
• Wheaton (10-1, 1-0) 71, Millikin (6-6, 0-1) 60

Final Thoughts

First and foremost, my thoughts and prayers are with Sofia Svensson, who had to wait for paramedics to get her out of the game when she took that nasty spill in the second half. She's already missed three games for various injuries, and I can only assume would be out for at least a couple more weeks, if not the whole season at this point.

As for the game itself... ugh. I feel like this was a game the Cardinals needed to have. You want to start CCIW play off right, and especially after the injury I was hoping for a "Win it for Sofia" theme to emerge. For a bit, it seemed like it might, but they couldn't sustain it. You won't win games turning it over 34 times and shooting as poorly as the Cardinals did last night. This team has stretches where they play really well, but other times where the wheels fall completely off. A lot of that does need to be credited to North Park; they obviously practiced really well to beat the scheme, and they did get a ton of open looks as the game went along. But the Cardinals didn't help matters much.

North Central hits the road for the next three games, with trips to Decatur, Kenosha and Rock Island. It's not out of the question to see the Cardinals come back home on January 18th at 2-2 in CCIW play and take on a tough Elmhurst team.

NFL Wild Card Preview

Welcome to 2014, COAS readers! 2013 was a busy year here, with a lot of focus on North Central basketball last season, my major project of deciding the best NBA champion of all time, and this fall's combination of working both the big time college and NFL angles. Sunday evening will see me resolving the semifinals and see if the Death to the BCS Playoffs will bring the same title game as the BCS will.

But today, I'm focusing on the start of the NFL playoffs. A lot of people have been complaining about the format of it, with some desiring reseeding of teams, and others seemingly wanting abolition of divisions. I like the playoffs the way they are. Win your division, earn a home game. That simple. We saw Seattle show in the playoffs following the 2010 season that they deserved to be there since they killed the Saints. Some of that may have been a product of home field advantage/the Saints being awful away from the Superdome, but still. Pretty much any of these 12 teams can make it and win in New Jersey in a few weeks. But there are hurdles to overcome.

Like last year, I'm going to pick both a straight up winner and go against the spread. Spread information is pulled from Vegas Insider. No money is being wagered however, and the spread is determined as close to publishing time as possible.