2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 9

This week we will officially hit the halfway point of the NFL season, and the gap has narrowed.

It was a good week for hero picks this past week, as everyone except Grant nailed one. Adam just barely held on to the lead among our group thanks to his Aiden's hero win, but only one game separates each of the top four players. I remain in last place, but took five our our eight disputed games and sit just three back of my dad for fourth place.

I have a Google Sheet with a breakdown of how we've picked in relation to each other, which you can view here. The only thing that I could maybe want to do differently in the future is do a breakdown by team, but that might be a lot of work. Something I intend to keep in mind though.

Adam is in Dallas for a few days, but was able to get me his picks before he left. This week, we disagree on six out of the 13 games being played. Let's see if I can continue the comeback.

Fly The W

I'm running on just three and a half hours of sleep this morning. But a lack of sleep has never felt so good.

It's a stark contrast from just 24 hours ago when my stomach was in knots from anticipation and extreme nervousness.

As a background, I am from suburban Chicago. My parents came here from North Dakota in the summer of 1984. That's a summer which, Cubs fans know, was a fun one on the north side of Chicago when the Cubs made a run, won the NL East, and fell just short of a World Series berth. They got hooked, spent pretty much every weekend that following summer in the bleachers at Wrigley, and fell in love with this team. My dad, who grew up a Twins fan, was able to pull off rooting for both because interleague play wasn't around yet and neither team was likely to make the World Series. He got a pair of Twins championships, but this one eluded him.

I first was "blessed and healed," to borrow a phrase from Eddie Vedder, in 1998 when my dad took me to Wrigley for the first time. I was hooked then and there, and this was helped by Sammy Sosa taking a bunch of steroids hitting a crapton of homeruns and leading the Cubs to the playoffs. I was in love with the Cubs from then on.

So of course, within a few years I got the required course in heartbreak. The 2003 NLCS was devastating, and is one of only a few times sports I wasn't directly involved in made me cry. It hardened me up a little bit for the early exits in 2007 and 2008, the latter of which kept me up until 3:30 in the morning, feeling numb, watching Family Guy and playing video games of some sort just to feel something again. This led to disappointing falls from 2009 onward, until Theo came aboard.

He was honest up front about the rebuild: it was going to take time, and it wasn't going to be pretty at first. Those first couple of years were not good, but I knew it was all part of the plan. Restock the farm system, build from within, draft high, trade for prospects, and watch them grow. 2014 ended on a fairly positive note as some of the seeds began to sprout. I expected 2015 to be a step towards contention, but last season exceeded my wildest expectations as I got to see Kris Bryant hit his first Major League homer in person, see a crazy walkoff win, and watch the Cubs shock the world with the third best record in the National League but finish third in their division. Thanks to the Wild Card Game, they got a shot to make a postseason run, and even though it ended sooner than I wanted it to, I was still optimistic about the future.

This year they came into the season with a target on their backs, but per Joe Maddon, they embraced it en route to the best record in baseball. They needed four games to handle the Giants, though not without a thrilling ninth inning comeback to eliminate Even Year Magic. They went 21 innings without a run against the Dodgers as many Cubs fans panicked (I was definitely freaked out but not in full panic mode) before flipping the switch, getting to Kershaw, and winning the pennant at home.

They faced an extremely good Indians team that took them to the brink. I'm not even going to make any "It was 3-1" jokes here, even though it would be karmic, because I respect the Indians and their fans. By all accounts of Cubs fans in Cleveland that I've heard, the city was incredibly welcoming, and even watching the game last night you could see the respect the Cubs and Indians had for each other.

None of that overrode the extreme nerves, the likes of which I don't think I've ever felt before except maybe during a Blackhawks overtime playoff game. The Cubs building a 5-1 lead helped relax me a little bit, but I've been a Cubs fan long enough to know that weird stuff happens. The Indians rallied in the eighth to tie the game, and I pulled a "surrender cobra" after Rajai Davis' game-tying home run, but with the game still tied, I had faith. I was scared after they blew a chance in the ninth that the Indians would walk it off, but Aroldis Chapman held firm. Then the rain came.

I debated about going to shower, but I didn't know how long the delay would last. Thankfully it wasn't long and the Cubs had the right part of the order coming up in the 10th. I would have been yelling with joy were Kristen not asleep, having gone to bed in about the fourth inning. I spent the entire bottom of the tenth on my feet, texting my dad, wishing I was there with him. And then, magic.

History. #FlyTheW pic.twitter.com/S8vVDYA87T

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) November 3, 2016

I'm not going to lie, I cried a little bit. Kristen even heard it from upstairs. Prior to last night, I had seen all of my teams win multiple titles. I don't remember the first three peat, but I have memories of Michael Jordan leading the Bulls to their second three peat. I was on the wagon for Green Bay's Super Bowl XXXI victory, and reveled in their win 14 years later. I got on the bandwagon in time for the Blackhawks' 2010 Stanley Cup, though the Cups in 2013 and 2015 were much sweeter for me. That's 11 championships, by the way, and they all pale in comparison to last night.

Maybe it's recency bias, but I think it's more of the emotional investment. Last night is why we love sports. Last night is why I am a Cubs fan. Losing sucks, and losing tough games when your team hasn't won in a long time hurts. But then you have nights like last night, and it makes it all worth it.

2016 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 10

Double digits! We've made it!

It's hard to believe we're this far into the season already, but time marches on and we're getting into the more crucial parts of the season. Playoff teams are looking to solidify their resumes, bubble teams are looking for that one break to sneak in, and conference contenders are trying to fight for a spot in their conference title game to steal an automatic bid.

Today though, the focus is on our non-conference games. I think last week might have been the first time all season that there were no changes to the standings. Whether that will remain the case this week, we're about to find out.

If you need a refresher on how this metric works, check out my season introduction post. Let's look at the non-conference games for the week.

2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 9 Mock Bracket

I guess today you can call me Dr. Frankenstein.

Halloween just happens to fall on a Monday this year, which is when I'm doing my mock college football playoff brackets. And given the carnage that took place over the weekend, the name seems appropriate.

Just five undefeated teams remain at the FBS level, and no more than one in any given conference. The good news is that this helps free up some at large berths. The bad news is that picking out my conference "champions" for the week is going to be difficult, as I have to really look at standings.

As a refresher, the Death to the BCS Playoffs are the format created by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan in an effort to get rid of the elitism rampant in big time college football. They created a 16 team field filled with all ten conference champions and six at large teams, though their method of filling the bracket was left to a committee. As a committee of one, I look at records and try to fill that in with seven metrics: Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), First Degree (PP1), Second Degree (PP2), and Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP), and computer rankings by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman (ROTH), and All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). These kind of organically merge together to seed the field 1-16, with home field advantage going to the higher seeds for the first three rounds. This means the top two seeds get three home games assuming we rock chalk, the top four seeds get two, and a top eight spot earns you a first round home date. So, without further ado, let's check out the latest mock bracket.

2016 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 9

I'm running behind this week, but it was to be expected with North Central College's Homecoming this weekend and my five year college reunion where I saw all of three people I graduated with, one of whom was my wife and the other of whom is a good friend of ours that we see fairly regularly. Though we did get to see the first half of North Central's trouncing of Carroll in my first game back at Benedetti-Wehrli Stadium since the 2010 Quarterfinals against Whitewater.

But while all that was going on, sheer, unadulterated chaos unfolded across the nation at the FBS level, and I need to sort through the madness in order to try and build a playoff bracket again.

You can view last week's rankings here, and can check out my season introductory post for a brief primer on how all of this works.

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 8

It's a little crazy to think we're almost halfway through the NFL season, but here we are.

Our consortium continues to plug along, with Adam still holding onto first place, though his lead is a little tenuous at this point. He had a bit of a down Week 7 as I took three of our five disputed games to narrow the gap between the top and the bottom to eight games, though I've almost caught up to my dad for fourth place. Gotta start somewhere.

You can view a full breakdown of our picks in relation to each other here. We haven't done very well on consensus picks this season, and Adam is largely in the lead thanks to going 5-6 on hero picks thus far.

This week, Adam and I disagree on a whopping eight games out of the 13 being played due to byes. It's a huge chance for me to continue to try to bite into his lead and make things interesting as we approach the second half of our season. Either that, or Adam is a genius and I'll be out of the running. Hopefully the former.

2016 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 9

We have a little over a month of season left, and a lot can yet change in the ranks of college football.

For the most part though, these rankings are reasonably established. Although our Week 7 leader dropped 3 spots last week, everyone else has stayed in a fairly solid order since the first month of the season ended. With conference play firmly in hand, this is to be expected.

However, with four independent teams and other non-conference games still on the slate, this is a measurement I continue to make on a weekly basis. If you need a refresher on how this works of if you're new to Confessions of a Sportscaster and have no idea what NCSS is, you can review my season introduction post for a primer on this metric and what it means. For now, let's look at the non-conference matchups this week.